Pirates WFC Blog

Finally, A Trade

2011-07-31T01:01:00.001-04:00

The Lyle Overbay era is over! The Pirates added veteran first baseman Derrek Lee.tonight for minor leaguer Aaron Baker. Expect Lee to start at first base for the rest of the season. The Orioles were in New York this weekend so Lee should be in Philadelphia for tomorrow's game - one the Pirates really need.

This isn't the move I was hoping for. The 35-year-old Lee is an upgrade over Overbay both at the plate and in the field, but still is hitting only .246/.302/.404 this season. The biggest sign of decline to me is in his plate discipline: Lee averaged 73 walks from 2007-2010 but has just 25 free passes this year against 83 strikeouts.

However, Lee is also a player who is capable of summoning the old magic for a two-month straight run. Last year, he was hitting .251/.335/.416 for the Cubs through 109 games. Traded to the Braves on August 18, he improved to .287/.384/.465 down the stretch to help Atlanta win the NL wild card. He'll also obviously be back in the National League with this deal. Lee struggled early after moving to the American League after 14 years in the NL, and for any player the NL Central certainly is an easier division to play in than the AL East.

Analysis of intangibles is largely bullshit, but for what it's worth, Lee is considered a great guy and a great teammate. He has 324 career home runs, 1,925 hits, four playoff appearances, and a World Series ring with the Marlins in 2003. Rarely does a team win a championship without one or two seasoned veteranhttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifs like Lee.

Fangraphs predicts Lee will hit .266/.340/.448 for the rest of this season. Those on-base and slugging numbers would put him second on the team to Andrew McCutchen in both categories. I would use the addition of a decent power bat to justify moving McCutchen up to second in the order, giving a lineup for the time being of: Paul, McCutchen, Lee, Walker, Jones, Alvarez, Cedeno, McKenry.

I'm on board with the Lee deal - it's a clear upgrade if only an incremental one. The Pirates gave up a 23-year-old Class A first baseman who was an 11th round pick and didn't make the top 30 prospects prior to the season. Yet it shouldn't be the only deal the Pirates make. With Garrett Jones hitting .230/.317/.404 and Matt Diaz hitting .262/.295/.333, there's a clear need for an outfielder and I want to see one added tomorrow afternoon.

Who will Lee replace on the roster? Well, the obvious move would be to designate Overbay for assignment. Yet on the bench, Overbay would still be the Pirates' best left-handed pinch hitter. I think the Pirates will simply send Pedro Ciriaco back to Indianapolis. We'll see him again in September.

2011 Champs Win Another Series

2011-07-18T22:41:00.000-04:00

Showing resiliency that will be the key to this year's World Series victories in Games 2 through 5, the Pirates won another must-win game Sunday after blowing Saturday's game in horrific fashion.

Saturday night, the Pirates led 4-3 in the eighth inning when terrible shit ensued. Pirates setup man Jose Veras is being blamed for the loss and he did walk the leadoff man, but Hunter Pence would easily have been caught stealing third easily if Michael McKenry didn't inexplicably fail to make any throw at all on the play. Clint Barmes also reached on a Brandon Wood error. It's a rare situation of the defense letting us down. Anwyay, my expected celebration Natural Lights ended up as consolation Natural Lights as the Pirates' latest stay in first ended in 24 hours.

The Pirates bounced back on Sunday of course, winning yet another series. They're now 17-0 in must win games this season. Unofficially, the Pirates have now won every series for the past 14 years except this year's matchup with the future 2011 AL pennant winners, the Cleveland Indians.

Neil Walker got six hits in the two days to raise his batting line to .273/.336/.410. But Chase d'Arnaud, still batting second, went 0-for-6 with four strikeouts Sunday and now has just a .244 on base percentage. If he's staying in the lineup it should be in the eighth position, but I would just send him back to Indianapolis whenever Ronny Cedeno comes back. Four years ago I would have used the word 'when' so that use of 'whenever' really makes me a true fan.

Joe Beimel made a triumphant return to the bullpen, pitching two-thirds of a scoreless inning. The Root Sports announcers claimed he was mad about giving up a hit. Joe Beimel has never shown any emotion ever, not even after giving up a home run. He's holding off on emotions until the World Series. It's the smart thing to do.

Game 92: Pirates (48-43) at Astros

2011-07-16T18:31:00.002-04:00

The first place Pirates go with the same lineup today except for replacing Josh Harrison at third base with Brandon Wood. Meanwhile at Indianapolis, Steven Pearce has homered on both days of his rehab assignment. I wonder if Pearce and not Pedro Alvarez should be the player being readied to replace Harrison and Wood at third base.

The Pirates got a chance with the All-Star break to realign their rotation, adn Paul Maholm is the #2 guy after Jeff Karstens. Maholm is ninth in the National League in ERA (2.96). Astros starter Bud Norris is a tough opponent who has more than a strikeout an inning for his career. He has already faced the Pirates three times this year, allowing only six runs total.

Despite all the people saying the Pirates are playing over their heads, by run differential Pittsburgh has won only one more game than would be expected. The Pirates have scored 358 runs and allowed 346 for an expected record of 47-44. Defending champion Cincinnati (+33) actually leads the division in this category, suggesting it might be a bit early to root for the Cardinals.

LINEUPS

Pirates
Presley lf (.357/.422/.554)
d'Arnaud ss (.233/.253/.315)
Walker 2b (.263/.327/.395)
McCutchen cf (.290/.390/.508)
Jones rf (.245/.333/.428)
Overbay 1b (.238/.310/.353)
Wood 3b (.211/.276/.331)
McKenry c (.236/.273/.319)
Maholm p (6-9, 2.96)

Astros
Bourn cf (.287/.350/.393)
Sanchez 3b (.256/.309/.317)
Keppinger 2b (.300/.314/.387)
Pence rf (.323/.364/.494)
Lee 1b (.269/.316/.424)
Michaels lf (.208/.348/.313)
Barmes ss (.247/.320/.374)
Quintero c (.231/.266/.299)
Norris p (5-6, 3.46)

Game time is 7:05.

Karstens Shutout Puts Bucs In First

2011-07-16T09:08:00.002-04:00

Jeff Karstens turned in the season's best pitching performance last night, shutting out the Astros 4-0 on just 83 pitches. He allowed only five singles and no walks and threw only 19 balls the whole game.

This game felt over in the third inning when Andrew McCutchen hit a two-run triple to make the score 3-0. When was the last time the Pirates had a pitcher who could give you that feeling so early on? Karstens (8-4, 2.34) now ranks third in the NL in ERA behind only Jair Jurrjens (12-3, 1.87) and Cole Hamels (11-4, 2.32). While sabermetric sites claim Karstens' ERA is "lucky", inducing weak contact is more than just luck. This game provides the perfect illustration. Astros starter Brett Myers struck out 11 but was gone after six innings, three runs and 111 pitchers. Meanwhile, Karstens struck out just two but seemed like he could have pitched 12 innigns easily.

McCutchen drove in his 55th and 56th runs and also reached base on a walk. Alex Presley scored twice, stole his third base, and now has 11 runs scored in 14 games. Chase d'Arnaud, 2-for-5 with a run scored, was the only other player to reach base twice.

Before the Pirates game was over, the Reds' Brandon Phillips hit a walkoff two-run homer to beat the Cardinals, 6-5. This put the Pirates fractions of a percentage point ahead of St. Louis, while they remain three games ahead of Cincinnati. If you think first place in July isn't significant, Tony La Russa used four players from his bench and all seven of his relief pitchers in the losing effort. When the Brewers went down 4-0 to the Rockies an hour later - despite the return of Ryan Braun to the lineup - the Pirates sat on top of the division for the first time this year.The only bad news of the night occurred in Bradenton, where Jose Tabata was scratched from his rehab assignment due to tightness in the same quadricep muscle that landed him on the disabled list one month ago. The Pirates downplayed the significance of the setback but already have said he won't play tonight either, making me think it could be a bigger deal than they're letting on.

Game 91: Pirates (47-43) at Astros

2011-07-15T17:06:00.005-04:00

I've managed to post one series preview in the past two months, so clearly I'll be able to handle doing a preview for every game from now on. Joe Beimel is back on the roster, Daniel Moskos is in Indianapolis, and the Pirates are in Houston this weekend to play baseball's worst team in a series sure to spark terrible trade speculation. Last time we played the Astros, someone called The Fan to suggest trading Ronny Cedeno straight up for Hunter Pence. it's a great move, and Neil Huntington will pull that one off on the same day he trades wives with Gavin Rossdale.One sports question I've always wondered is what a team's reaction is to making these decisions. Is it "I think we'll go with Brett Myers to start the first game after the break."? Or is it "Goddamn it, we've somehow fucked this up to a point where we have to start Brett Motherfucking Myers."

LINEUPS

Astros
Bourn cf (.287/.351/.395)
Downs 3b (.270/.368/.540)
Keppinger 2b (.301/.316/.390)
Pence rf (.323/.364/.496)
Lee lf (.268/.316/.425)
Wallace 1b (.285/.364/.406)
Barmes ss (.250/.324/.379)
Quintero c (.235/.270/.304)
Myers p (3-9, 4.88)

Pirates
Presley lf (.365/.424/.577)
d'Arnaud ss (.221/.243/.309)
Walker 2b (.264/.329/.398)
McCutchen cf (.291/.390/.505)
Jones rf (.248/.335/.434)
Overbay 1b (.240/.310/.357)
Harrison 3b (.274/.282/.321)
McKenry c (.246/.274/.333)
Karstens p (7-4, 2.55)

By coming up at the same time as Alex Presley, Chase d'Arnaud has gotten a reputation for getting off to a good start at the top of the lineup. It's understandable - I got a reputation for being a degenerate by living across the street from a halfway house - but it's also undeserved when he hasn't been hitting, has five errors, and generally looks like a guy who should still be in the minor leagues. With no news on Ronny Cedeno's return, it's fine to leave d'Arnaud in there but he should be moved down in the lineup if he doesn't hit this weekend.

Game time is at 8:05, sweethearts.

The Romantic Trade Market

2011-07-15T07:08:00.002-04:00

Film officially died with the release of "Tooth Fairy," but life is long and there's not much to do so I still watch Movies on Demand. Amid the typical disappointments - the main character in "Hendrix" dies at age 27! - once in a while I am still able to take some inspiration from a true piece of art. My recent viewing of "She's out of My League" is a perfect example. It inspired me to win the World Series.

The main character spends most of the movie pursuing a woman with great success, despite his friends' claims that he'll never get anywhere with someone so attractive. This culminates in what should have been a sex scene. The couple is making out, clothes are coming off, music is playing, the characters have wanted this for a long time. But what does our hero do? He blows it by stopping all this to give an explanation of the fact that she's too good looking to possibly have sex with him.

Of course, this is Hollywood so the two end up reconciling. Rest assured that this move will not lead to success if tried in real life.

It's fitting that this movie was filmed in Pittsburgh, because the plot could have been lifted from the Pirates' 2011 season. This spring, fans hoped for 74 wins, a fifth place finish, and continued improvement from the young core - basically our awful ex back complete with a couple of promises to change. It seemed like a joke that the Pirates listed the opportunity to buy playoff tickets as one of my season ticket holder benefits. The Cardinals, Reds, and Brewers were out of our league and we were as likely to finish ahead of all three as we were to meet a natural blonde on East Carson Street. Yet we pursued them nonetheless. There was a goal we wanted. We got enough positive feedback that we didn't give up - and now here we are, 60% of the way through the movie, a game behind the Cardinals and half a game behind the Brewers. First place wants us, first place has put on sexy music to seduce us, first place's top is on the floor next to our bed. And Pittsburgh wants to tell first place that we're not good enough.

I've been listening to more sports radio than anyone should, and the overwhelming sense I get is that Pirates fans don't want to go all in this year. Don't "mortgage the future." This year is just a step ahead in building for 2012, or 2013, or 2014. A new player could mess with the team chemistry. The pitching can't hold up long enough to stay in the race. The Pirates would just lose to the Phillies even if they won the division. Getting our injured players back is just as good as trading for a star player. Winning even 75, or 82, games would be a big improvement. Basically, Pirates fans don't think we're good enough for first place. And it's not just fans - Neil Huntington has already said that the Pirates won't trade a major prospect. God forbid, indeed.

In fact, there are more people who want to trade away Paul Maholm for prospects than who want to add a big bat to this year's team. Many of these same fans were against dismantling a 67 win team by trading Freddy Sanchez, Jack Wilson, Jason Bay, Nate McLouth, and Xavier Nady. Yet it's fine to trade a pitcher who leads the team in innings and is #9 in the league in ERA.

Speaking of World Series titles, the 2006 Cardinals had just 83 wins, four poor hitters in their starting lineup, and only two starters with under a 5.00 ERA. The 2010 Giants fielded an everyday lineup of guys who were last good five years ago, finishing 17th in baseball in runs scored. Unless you're in a four team league, a World Series title is a longshot for every team, every year. It's still the goal.

I would absolutely trade a major prospect for a big bat. Life happens in the present tense. What future are we building for, if not the future where the Pirates are a game out of first place in mid-July? A pennant race is something this town hasn't seen in 19 years. Nobody calls in sick to their first day of work.

I hear our #2 prospect Starling Marte is untouchable. I would absolutely trade Starling Marte for a legitimate power hitter. I hear he's great defensively, but his career high in walks is 16 and he's never hit double digit home runs. He's the same age as Jose Tabata and both are getting on base at the same rate, except that Marte is doing it in Altoona and Tabata is doing it in the big leagues. Carlos Pena has 19 major league home runs this year and 163 since 2007. Who's a better bet to succeed, Pena right now or Marte in 2014? Which team is guaranteed to be in a pennant race, this one or the one in 2014?

Our #2 prospect, Tony Sanchez, certainly won't be moved. He's hitting .239 and slugging .307 for Altoona right now. He's a 23-year old catcher who has allowed 80% of opposing baserunners to steal successfully since 2010. I wouldn't sell low on him, but I don't see why he's off limits. Carlos Beltran has 28 doubles, 13 home runs, and 47 walks this year.

In real life, there's no last chance right before the credits roll. A team that's a game out of first place is a player away from winning the division, and July is the time to get one. Whether their fans know it or not, the Pirates owe it to the city to add a true impact bat this month.

First Half Grades - Hitters

2011-07-13T17:24:00.001-04:00

This is a really boring post topic and who really cares, but in a pennant race it's important to backdate some posts so it looks like I have a decent amount of recent updates to my blog.

Andrew McCutchen: A+
88 G, .291/.390/.505, 54 Runs, 14 HR, 54 RBI, 15 SB
McCutchen is the National League's first half MVP. In all of baseball, no player means as much to a contending team as McCutchen. He's a cornerstone of this franchise and it's past time to sign him to a long-term contract.

Alex Presley: A+
13 G, .365/.424/.577, 9 Runs, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 2 SB
Presley has been nothing short of a revelation atop the lineup. Of course he won't keep up this pace, but you have to keep putting him atop the lineup at this point even when Jose Tabata and others return.

Chris Snyder: A-
34 G, .271/.376/.396, 13 Runs, 3 HR, 17 RBI
Before getting injured, Snyder played his usual solid defense and surprisingly was one of the NL's best offensive catchers. He is certainly missed but after undergoing back surgery, I have my doubts that he'll be back this season.

Ryan Doumit: B+
34 G, .269/.333/.441, 7 Runs, 4 HR, 15 RBI
Doumit earned a B+ at Memorial Day and still hasn't played since. I'm expecting him back in early August. If he continues his strong hitting, he'll be a welcome addition to the lineup.

Neil Walker: B
88 G, .264/.329/.398, 47 Runs, 8 HR, 59 RBI, 5 SB
Walker's offense has decreased in his second season but he has still amassed great counting stats by virtue of his lineup position. Miscast as a middle of the order power hitter, Walker nevertheless has established himself as one of the National League's better second basemen.

Garrett Jones: B
81 G, .248/.335/.434, 27 Runs, 9 HR, 34 RBI, 4 SB
Jones has quietly been the Pirates' second best hitter in the past month, yet has unfairly been criticized from fans and the media. He's putting up the same ratios as trade candidates like Ryan Ludwick and Josh Willingham. If the Pirates do add a right fielder I would play Jones at first over Lyle Overbay.

José Tabata: B
71 G, .265/.351/.354, 39 Runs, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 14 SB
Tabata's stats don't look impressive at first glance but in the decreased offensive environment this year, he was actually one of the best leadoff hitters in the National League. So far he's failed to develop any power but has improved in the field by getting better jumps on balls. Hopefully upon his return, his left quad injury won't affect the speed which is a major part of his game.

Steven Pearce: B
28 G, .291/.339/.382, 6 Runs, 1 HR, 10 RBI
Pearce hasn't played since Memorial Day so his grade remains at a B. If he continues this production he'll be a valuable bench bat down the stretch. He's been the Pirates' only acceptable hitter who can play third base.

Michael McKenry: B-
22 G, .246/.274/.333, 8 Runs, 1 HR, 6 RBI
McKenry provided the highlight of the first half with his home run Friday night off Carlos Marmol. Apart from that, he performed about as well on offense as you would expect of an AAA catcher. McKenry has done a great job defensively, particularly with framing pitches and handling balls in the dirt.

Ronny Cedeno: C+
79 G, .252/.311/.346, 30 Runs, 2 HR, 23 RBI, 1 SB
Baseball IQ will always be an issue for Ronny but he's the Pirates' best option right now to play shortstop. His offense and defense have both improved noticeably since March. None of his numbers are great but he's performed as well as anyone who might be available in a trade. He's hit and fielded much better than Chase d'Arnaud but I wouldn't be surprised if d'Arnaud still pushes him for playing time once Cedeno returns from a concussion. Since April 29 Cedeno has hit .279/.347/.391.

Matt Diaz: C+
67 G, .283/.313/.358, 11 Runs, 0 HR, 15 RBI, 24 SB
Diaz doesn't walk and seems to have lost all of his power, making him a questionable choice for anything but a bench role. All of his hits seem to be solid line drives but he's not reaching on any of the lucky hits that would boost his stats to more acceptable levels. Still, he's hit .321/.351/.413 since May 3 and is undeserving of the level of criticism he has received.

Xavier Paul: C
60 G, .263/.292/.360, 16 Runs, 1 HR, 12 RBI, 9 SB
Although he hasn't been nearly as useful as his manager or fans seem to think, Paul has proved to be a decent reserve outfielder. It looks like Paul's speed and defense will keep him on the roster all year. He'll never be more than a fifth outfielder unless he learns plate discipline.

Josh Harrison: C-
36 G, .274/.282/.321, 10 Runs, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 1 SB
Harrison has done as well as could be expected given his minor league record. However, a player with no home runs can't get away with having one walk. He probably belongs in the minors but sadly has still been the Pirates' best third baseman this year.

Lyle Overbay: D
87 G, .240/.310/.357, 34 Runs, 6 HR, 34 RBI, 1 SB
For the most part, Overbay has given the Pirates nothing this year. His numbers are unacceptable for a first baseman, especially one who is third on the team with 333 plate appearances. He brought a good defensive reputation to Pittsburgh but hasn't done much to live up to it as he's struggled to catch throws both in the dirt and over his head. I can't imagine Overbay keeps the job much longer.

Brandon Wood: D
52 G, .211/.276/.331, 14 Runs, 4 HR, 16 RBI
Wood has improved his performance from embarrassing to merely below average, but all of his skills still appear to be replacement level. The Pirates need to make some move so that the likes of Wood and Harrison aren't playing regularly down the stretch.

Pedro Alvarez: D
36 G, .208/.283/.304, 12 Runs, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 1 SB
2011 still looks like a lost season for Alvarez. The Pirates can't afford to let Alvarez find his stroke at the plate in the middle of a pennant race. I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't come back to the majors until September.

Chase d'Arnaud: D
16 G, .221/.243/.309, 9 Runs, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 5 SB
d'Arnaud has only one major league skill at this point, his blazing speed. It's early still but he hasn't hit or fielded well enough so far to justify his spot on the roster, much less his lineup position.

McCutchen All-Star Reaction

2011-07-03T22:46:00.004-04:00

As I'm sure you've read, Andrew McCutchen was not selected for the All-Star game today. Obviously this is a terrible decision, but it's not one I didn't expect. Entering today Baseball Reference judged him as the second most valuable position player in the National League after Matt Kemp, with McCutchen generating five additional wins for the Pirates to Kemp's 5.2 for the Dodgers. Deducting at least ten wins for Kemp's decision to cheat on Rihanna - I'm not a great man but I could be faithful to her of all people - McCutchen is statistically the best player in the league. He's the fourth best offensive player in the NL and second best on defense. Yet he will be at home for the All-Star break, because God forbid anyone would bother checking how each player in the league is doing before picking the best players in the league.

Let's start with the fan voting: the NL's starting outfield is a joke. Kemp, Braun, and Berkman would be a great outfield in an NFL-style league where completely different players would take the field. Then look at the reserves. I'll give you Holliday, Pence, and Upton, but Jay Bruce and Carlos Beltran are a couple of players who could never and no longer can field, respectively, yet are no more effective than Cutch on offense. To make things quite real, McCutchen wasn't even one of five players in the "Final Vote." It's a definite sign of disrespect, but it's actually one that helps the Pirates.

Let's look at the actual effect of this decision. McCutchen was promoted in June 2009. Since then, the Pirates have played 356 games with McCutchen starting 340 of them. He plays all out at all times and has suffered at least ten injuries that I can think of in that time, but he almost always is in the lineup the next day. What he's missing out on is traveling to Arizona, being interviewed by pretty much no one since the national media don't care about the Pirates, maybe pinch-hitting once, and then flying back. If we were 20 games back as usual it would actually suck to miss that - yet the Pirates are in the thick of a pennant race in a division that could easily be won. Wouldn't it be better for our start player to go back to his bullshit hometown in Florida and get four days of rest?

Moreover, one key to the Pirates' success is the fact that teams take them lightly. Maybe we would have won two of three from both the Red Sox and Phillies anyway, but don't think it didn't help that these juggernaut teams viewed the Pirates as a break in the schedule, a series where they wouldn't have to play their best ball. The lack of All-Stars only helps that perception. Evan Meek last year had an ERA below 1.00 when he was selected and the national media still demeaned the pick. We want this to happen. We want Joel Hanrahan to not even pitch in the game - as he surely will not - even though he is the best closer in baseball. The last thing we need now is other teams realizing our players are good.

An All-Star snub is fine. Pittsburgh Pirates players will get recognition from managers, players, fans, and the national media - after we win the World Series.

Series Preview: Washington Nationals

2011-07-01T16:55:00.006-04:00

At press time Joe Paterno is arguably still alive, so the Washington Nationals continue to ignore a great rivalry by refusing to play the Washington Wild Things every year like they should. The best we get is this series between the Pirates and Nationals. The two clubs play four games in the next 48 hours and despite a 7-3 run, at least two wins feel like a necessity to me.If the Pirates can become a legit contender as if nothing ever happened, then I can preview series as if I didn't skip two months of posts. Washington is the most similar team in baseball to this year's Pirates, a perennial last place team which has emerged with somewhat of a breakout season thanks to pitching. The Nationals rank 11th in the National League with 3.88 runs per game; the Pirates rank 13th with 3.80. The Pirates are allowing 3.90 runs per game, sixth best in the league; Washington's 3.83 runs allowed rank fifth. The Pirates are 41-39, the Nationals are 40-41. The difference is that the Nationals play in the NL East and are threatening to fall out of contention as they trail the Phillies by 9.5 games and the Braves by 5.5. Also important, this babe to your right may look scantily clad but that's actually the most clothing any babe has worn out in D.C. after 11 p.m.

Unlike the Pirates, the Nationals spent a lot of money to try and succeed this year. But after signing a seven year, $126 million contract, Jayson Werth has hit only .223/.326/.390 and is currently day to day with a sore left knee. Another free agent, Adam LaRoche, hit only .172/.288/.258 and is now injured for the season. A couple of stars have emerged, however: first baseman Michael Morse, hitting .300/.350/.550 including 15 home runs and 46 RBI, and second baseman Danny Espinosa, .238/.323/.465 with 15 homers and 48 RBI. Ryan Zimmerman, .241/.321/.404, was injured for most of the year but is starting to get his bat going.

Washington Nationals: Friday 7:05, Saturday 3:30 (2), Sunday 1:35
Tonight, Charlie Morton (7-4, 3.77) makes his triumphant return to the rotation. The Pirates claimed Morton was fatigued but make no mistake, his start was skipped due to recent performance. The Nationals are a good lineup to get Morton back to his earlier form. The Nationals go with our old friend Tom Gorzellany (2-6, 4.18). Was there ever a pitcher who seemed more likely to drop off the face of the earth after the Pirates traded him? My pick is the Pirates.

Saturday, the Pirates give the ball to James McDonald (5-4, 4.52) against John Lannan (5-5, 3.48). I picked up John Lannan in fantasy baseball for his two start week so obviously he has no chance to win either game. My pick is the Pirates. But is that the only game? No. The Pirates are dicked into playing a doubleheader. I have visited Washington probably 30 times and the only truly nice day I ever experienced there was Tuesday, May 17, when the scheduled game was postponed on an 80 degree sunny day. It was a complete bush league move, and one that ironically results in a bush league pitcher going for the Pirates tomorrow night as Brad Lincoln (6-7, 4.14 at Altoona) will be called up to face Livan Hernandez (5-8, 3.81). Look for Xavier Paul to be placed on the disabled list to make room for Lincoln; the Pirates are already down to three bench bats with Paul and Walker unable to go and certainly can't go with just two.

I have heard multiple radio callers say that Paul Maholm should be traded because Lincoln can adequately fill in. Lincoln is giving up more than a hit an inning in AA and flamed out in Pittsburgh last year when none of these people were watching. These were no doubt the same people who thought Brent Johnson could win the Vezina and Charlie Batch would be better than Marino if only they could start every game. Yet I've lived in Pittsburgh for three years and it's very rare that anything happens to stop annoying and ignorant sports radio calls; thus my pick is the Pirates.

In Sunday's, finale, Pittsburgh will go with Kevin Correia (10-6, 3.79) against Jason Marquis (7-2, 3.62). I am also using Marquis in fantasy this week. Using these Nationals pitchers is reminiscent of when I would go to Michigan football games and bet on the opposing team so that if they lost, I wouldn't have to pay for the trip. It sounded like a good idea, but Rich Rodriguez wasn't the coach so really the only result was losing a lot of bets. My pick,fs of course, is the Pirates.

Time To Trade For A Catcher

2011-07-01T07:12:00.002-04:00

Most trade discussion in Pittsburgh has centered around the possibility of getting a power bat, with names like Josh Willingham, Ryan Ludwick, and Mike Cuddyer floated as options. While any of those players would undoubtedly improve the Pirates' lineup, adding another catcher is a much more obvious need at this point.

For the first two months of the season, the Pirates fielded one of baseball's best catching tandems with Chris Snyder (.271/.376/.396) and Ryan Doumit (.269/.333/.441) both providing positive offensive contributions. The position is now a black hole in the lineup: since Snyder's injury on June 8, Pirates catchers have gone 9-for-69 with four runs scored, two doubles, a walk, 19 strikeouts, and no RBI for a hideous .130/.143/.159 batting line.

Neil Huntington recently said that the Pirates preferred to wait for their injured players to return rather than overpay for a catcher in trade. Really? Snyder is probably out for the season after back surgery. Doumit is a month away from returning. Jason Jaramillo will start rehabbing his injured wrist in a week or two, but this is the same guy who hit .149/.227/.207 last year. Without a trade, the best case scenario is that the Pirates get zero offense from the position for another month and then rely for the rest of the season on the health of a player who has been on the disabled list eight different times since 2006 and is coming back from a broken ankle.

The terrible production from the catcher spot creates the best opportunity for an upgrade. The difference in production between McKenry and an average MLB catcher is 132 points of OBP and 137 points of slugging percentage. Regardless of who the Pirates trade or how much they spend, unless Honus Wagner is available there's no way to upgrade any other position by that much.

With half the season left and considering the frequency of catcher injuries, it's unlikely that a contender would trade even a backup catcher. But there are 11 teams already out of the race that would likely give up their backup for a marginal prospect. Here are a few players who could be available:

Ivan Rodriguez, Nationals - Pudge's formerly potent bat has declined to typical backup catcher territory, as he's only hitting .215/.276/.336 this year in his age 39 season. But his arm is still strong - he's thrown out 48% of base stealers - and he was durable enough to start 103 games in 2010. He has a World Series ring and would presumably enjoy being in a pennant race in what is probably his final season. At 40-41 the Nationals aren't having a bad season, but they realistically have no shot at overtaking Atlanta or Philadelphia. A series win this weekend would quickly turn the Nats into sellers.

José Molina, Blue Jays - José inexplicably is having his best offensive season at age 36, hitting .301/.381/.441 on the year. His career batting line of .240/.286/.342 is more indicative of his true skills. With J.P. Arencibia establishing himself as a starter, Molina clearly isn't part of the Jays future. We also witnessed with Wednesday's pickoff of Garrett Jones that José has lost nothing off of his arm.

Matt Treanor, Royals - The Royals have actually given Treanor a majority of the playing time, but it's hard to imagine this 35-year-old career backup being part of the next winning Royals team. He's never been able to hit for average but is walking at a career best rate, resulting in a respectable .216/.354/.304 batting line. Matt also has thrown out 30% of base stealers.

Koyie Hill, Cubs - The switch-hitter is not even close to Doumit's class but has a respectable .224/.287/.353 batting line. He's only thrown out 17% of base stealers this year, but has caught 27% for his career. The Cubs should be in full rebuild mode at this point and although Hill at 32 is the youngest player on this list, with Geovany Soto on board they would really have no reason not to jettison Hill for even a marginal prospect.

Obviously none of these names would excite the Pirates fan base - but all would represent major upgrades. Remember, the Pirates got a much better catcher last year for D.J. Carrasco, Ryan Church and Bobby Crosby. The Pirates so far are contending by accident in 2011. For a general manager who seems reluctant to swing a big deal at this point, a low-profile addition of a legitimate major league catcher would at least represent a start towards a real attempt to win this division.

First Quarter Grades - Pitchers

2011-05-31T19:00:00.000-04:00

This continues the grades which started this morning with the hitters. There is much better news here. The Pirates rank fifth in the National League and eighth in baseball with a 3.55 ERA, and almost every pitcher they've used has been impressive.

Joel Hanrahan: A
24 IP, 0-1, 1.52, 1.14 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 14 Saves
Hanrahan has quietly become one of baseball's elite closers in his first year on the job. He amazingly has added velocity to his fastball which now averages 97 mph. He now uses his slider only 14% of the time (39% in 2010) which has resulted in a decreased strikeout rate. Joel has not required more than 13 pitches to get out of an inning since May 6. He hasn't blown a save this season, his only loss came on an unearned run, and he is fifth in MLB with 14 saves. Unless he gets lit up in June he will earn his first All-Star appearance.

Charlie Morton: A
68 IP, 5-2, 2.51, 1.37 WHIP, 4.9 K/9
Morton has been nothing short of a revelation this season. I was one of many people who thought he didn't deserve a rotation spot, and I am happy to be wrong. He has never thrown less than five innings and completed two games while averaging nearly seven innings a start. Charlie has gotten ground ball outs whenever he needed them, including a team-high 11 ground ball double plays. He permitted only two home runs. In previous years he struggled with men on base, but this year batters have hit only .228/.308/.254 off Morton with men on. This is the breakout year Morton and the Pirates needed.

Daniel McCutchen: A
23 IP, 1-1, 1.19, 1.02 WHIP, 4.4 K/9
With numbers like these there's nothing to do other than give Daniel McCutchen a grade of A. He didn't even make the club out of spring training, but was quickly called up and has been deployed in every situation imaginable. He has had two one-batter appearances and four of two innings or more, and has been used in every inning from the fourth through the ninth. Through it all, he showed impeccable control and often got out of innings in ten or fewer pitches.

Paul Maholm: A-
71 IP, 2-7, 3.18, 1.18 WHIP, 6.1 K/9
Won-loss record aside, Maholm is having the best year of his career. Batters have hit only .225/.293/.322 against the lefthander, all career best marks. He also has upped his strikeout rate despite throwing his fastball at only 88 mph. Maholm is having an All-Star season but unfortunately the Pirates scored only six runs in his seven losses. Be assured that the league has taken notice, and Maholm will bring a considerable return if the Pirates trade him this summer as has been widely speculated.

Kevin Correia: A-
71 IP, 7-4, 3.44, 1.19 WHIP, 3.8 K/9
I've never seen a pitcher be this effective while striking out so few batters, but Correia has done it all year. He leads the league in wins and has already allowed zero runs three different times this year. Correia also has shut down the running game, allowing only four steals. He even pitched a scoreless inning in relief between starts during the first homestand. When Kevin was named to start on Opening Day, many people probably thought he didn't deserve to be the ace of a rotation. Yet thus far he has been one of three aces for the Pirates.

José Veras: A-
21 IP, 1-1, 2.53, 1.13 WHIP, 12.7 K/9
With Evan Meek injured, Veras emerged as a lights out setup man in Pittsburgh. So far he has struck out over a third of batters while holding righthanded hitters to a .149 batting average. Unlike most relievers, Veras has three plus pitches: a 94 mph heater, a split-fingered fastball, and his out pitch, a big curveball which he throws 38% of the time.

Jeff Karstens: B+
50 IP, 3-4, 3.58, 1.29 WHIP, 7.2 K/9
Karstens was great in long relief and like he does every year, earned the fifth starter role. In eight starts he allowed two or fewer earned runs five times. Karstens also is striking out batters at a career high rate while walking them at a career low rate (2.0 BB/9). His only problem has been the home run; he has allowed one every five innings. The word is that Ross Ohlendorf will regain his rotation spot when he comes back from injury, pushing Karstens back into long relief.

Chris Resop: B
24 IP, 1-1, 4.13, 1.33 WHIP, 10.9 K/9
Relying on a 93 mph fastball with movement, Resop is second on the team in strikeout frequency and along with Hanrahan, Veras, and Evan Meek, gives the Pirates a potentially lights out back end of the bullpen. Not many teams can deploy four righthanders who all can strike out over a batter an inning. Resop recovered from a poor stretch in the first half of May but has apparently been demoted from his setup role with Meek's return. He needs to cut back on walks.

Joe Beimel: C
13 IP, 0-1, 5.40, 1.50 WHIP, 6.8 K/9
Between disabled list stints, Beimel featured the most intimidating entrance music I've ever heard (Johnny Cash's "God's Gonna Cut You Down"). His ERA is misleading as he had 14 good appearances and four bad ones. He held lefties to a .200/.231/.280 batting line but struggled when he was left in to face strings of righthanded hitters. Bonus points for being the only pitcher I've ever seen who went all out on his warmup pitches.

James McDonald: C-
53 IP, 3-3, 5.23, 1.50 WHIP, 7.6 K/9
After two months as the Pirates' best pitcher at the end of last season, McDonald got off to a terrible start and had a 10.12 ERA through four starts. Since then he has pitched quite well, with a 2.60 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. McDonald's ERA should continue to decrease throughout the season, but he needs to walk fewer batters and go deeper into games to be a #1, #2 or #3 starter.

Mike Crotta: F
11 IP, 0-1, 9.28, 2.34 WHIP, 5.9 K/9
There's nothing to say here, Crotta simply got lit up. As I speculated before the season, Mike just wasn't ready for a major league role. In his last five appearances here he retired only three of 13 batters. He throws a 93 mph fastball but major league batters knew it was coming and hit it. To succeed in the major leagues he needs to add another breaking pitch and add movement to his fastball.

Evan Meek: Incomplete
10 IP, 0-1, 4.50, 1.80 WHIP, 10.8 K/9
Meek looked hurt to me while he struggled early. He's pitched two scoreless innings since returning from injury while appearing to regain his All-Star form. Because of his injury and the fact that over half his runs were allowed in one game, I won't judge Meek so far.

First Quarter Grades - Hitters

2011-05-31T07:00:00.001-04:00

Memorial Day is the traditional quarter post in the baseball season. The Pirates are 24-28, down but not out, trailing the first place Cardinals by 6.5 games and the wild card leading Marlins by five. I thought I would grade the Pirates offensive players for their seasons thus far. Pitchers are coming up.

Overall, these hitters have been a disappointing bunch who have mostly underperformed their career averages. Of course, who among us isn't underperforming compared to our best years? Here goes:

Andrew McCutchen: A-
50 G, .253/.356/.459, 29 Runs, 9 HR, 27 RBI, 9 SB
McCutchen has improved his defense to the point where whenever a ball is hit near center field, I expect it to be caught. He doesn't necessarily have more range than he showed the last two years, but the same balls that would pop out of his glove last year are caught in spectacular fashion this season. His arm has gotten more accurate as well; he's already gunned down five baserunners.

On offense, Cutch's batting average is down but he is putting up the same on base and slugging numbers as he has in his career. His 29 walks lead the team and he is second in runs, RBI and steals. We're stlil awaiting a breakout season on offense, but he's also still only 24.

Chris Snyder: A-
28 G, .289/.381/.434, 11 Runs, 3 HR, 13 RBI
Snyder recovered from an early season DL stint to excel in a semi-regular role behind the plate, starting 25 of 41 games since his return. After hitting .200 and .207 the last two years, at age 30 Snyder is putting up the numbers of a great leadoff hitter including the best batting average and OBP of his career. One wonders why he still bats behind players like Matt Diaz and Brandon Wood in the lineup.

Chris has thrown out only 21% of base stealers but has been steady behind the plate (last night's game notwithstanding) and deserves a lot of credit for the Pirates' resurgent starting pitching.

Ryan Doumit: B+
34 G, .269/.333/.441, 7 Runs, 4 HR, 15 RBI
Doumit has excelled in a reserve role and is the league's best backup catcher. He provided many highlights with his bat and is hitting better than he has in any season except his career year in 2008. He has improved his contact and power hitting from the right side of the plate.

Doumit has also improved his receiving and throwing skills, and has only one passed ball this season while throwing out an acceptable 23% of runners. A switch-hitting catcher with power would be useful on any team - unfortunately, Doumit's trade value took a major hit when he sprained his left ankle on Sunday and was placed on the disabled list.

Neil Walker: B+
51 G, .265/.330/.418, 30 Runs, 6 HR, 31 RBI, 2 SB
Walker has proved his rookie season was not a fluke. He leads the team in runs and RBI and has a shot at 100 of both, which is enough to make him one of the league's best hitting second baseman. Unfortunately, he is getting on base less and getting fewer extra base hits than last season while striking out more. This decline is entirely due to his struggles from the right side of the plate where he's hit .231/.281/.308.

Like McCutchen, Walker is providing enough offense to tantalize fans who see that he's one step away from being a legitimate star. Neil has greatly improved his defense and is now an above average major league defender in only his second year at a very tough position.

Garrett Jones: B
45 G, .229/.340/.412, 14 Runs, 6 HR, 17 RBI, 2 SB
Miscast by John Russell as an everyday first baseman last season, Jones has settled into a platoon role in right field. He has made all 37 of his starts against righthanded pitchers and has hit for power while walking in a career high 14% of his plate appearances. Garrett's defense has also improved, perhaps as a result of only concentrating on one position. Jones's brief turn as a superstar in 2009 won't be repeated but he is an asset to the Pirates especially at a $455,000 salary.

José Tabata: B
47 G, .246/.350/.353, 27 Runs, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 13 SB
Tabata's batting average is well down but he has actually improved his OBP over 2010 thanks to a dramatic increase in his walk rate. If he can continue to walk in 14% of his plate appearances, José is almost guaranteed toget on base at a decent rate with his speed. He's stealing more bases than in 2010 as well, which combined with his on base skills would make him useful in a center field role. However, he needs to hit for more power to be a starting left fielder for many more years. That should come since Tabata is only 22. In the field, José has shown good range but at times has gotten poor jumps on balls.

Steven Pearce: B
28 G, .291/.339/.382, 6 Runs, 1 HR, 10 RBI
After bouncing back and forth between Indianapolis and the majors since 2007, Pearce has established himself as a useful bench player this year. He's started six games each at first and third base and before his recent trip to the disabled list was playing himself into a platoon with Lyle Overbay by hitting .300/.361/.433 against lefthanded pitchers. He will never be an MLB regular but he will be missed while on the DL.

Lyle Overbay: C-
50 G, .237/.306/.379, 22 Runs, 5 HR, 19 RBI, 1 SB
With a 34-year-old power hitter, it's always hard to decide what's a poor start and what's a player with his best days behind him. Overbay hit four of his home runs in May so I'm willing to continue to give him a shot. The main red flag for me is that he is walking at his lowest rate in the last five seasons. He has been an average first baseman defensively, which is a huge improvement over anyone the Pirates used in 2010. He has played all out in every game I've seen and is reportedly a good influence on young players.

Slow start notwithstanding, Overbay can still achieve the 20 home run, 85 RBI, above average defensive season that the Pirates envisioned when they signed him. That's incidentally the same thing Adam LaRoche did here for three years, with the result being inexplicable hatred from Pittsburgh fans.

Ronny Cedeno: C-
50 G, .242/.304/.340, 18 Runs, 2 HR, 17 RBI, 1 SB
Cedeno remains the Pirates' starting shortstop by default. He actually has hit quite well in May (.288/.374/.413) but his overall numbers are still fair to poor. After 623 games in the major leagues, Ronny makes mistakes in the field, at the plate, and on the bases that would embarrass rookies. In particular, it's happened more than a few times that he fields the ball seemingly with plenty of time to get an out, and simply doesn't make a throw. This is a player that needs to be replaced by Opening Day 2012 at the latest.

Matt Diaz: D
37 G, .244/.270/.314, 6 Runs, 0 HR, 8 RBI, 2 SB
Signed as a righthanded platoon partner for Jones, Diaz has hit only .205/.239/.227 against lefthanders and hasn't been much better against righties. It's too early to judge him on 89 plate appearances, but a 33-year-old corner outfielder who suddenly loses his power is a cause for concern particularly when that player is on a two-year contract. The hits Diaz has been getting are solid line drives and I'm not ready to give up after 89 plate appearances. Despite his struggles at the plate, Matt has acted like the 33-year-old veteran that he is; he has still played good defense and runs full speed on every groundout and pop-up.

Pedro Alvarez: D
36 G, .208/.283/.304, 12 Runs, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 1 SB
Alvarez was a disaster at the plate before going on the disabled list. A team can tolerate a player who strikes out in 30% of his plate appearances if he also homers once every six games, as Alvarez did in 2010. This year it's a home run every 18 games, and his walk rate is down too. Alvarez avoids an F grade only because he improved his defense noticeably. He still makes too many mistakes but has good instincts and a cannon for an arm. Alvarez is only 24 and once he returns from injuty will still have plenty of time to salvage this season.

Xavier Paul: D
25 G, .225/.279/.275, 6 Runs, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 3 SB
Paul always had good numbers in AAA ball but unfortunately looks overmatched in the majors. He's struck out in 32% of his plate appearances which is a bad recipe for a player who also hasn't shown any power. When he enters as part of a double switch or remains in the game after pinch hitting, the Pirates' late inning offense suffers. Paul's speed and defense are nice, but a pinch runner/defensive replacement only has a place in the major leagues after rosters expand in September--especially when none of the other four outfielders are particularly slow or poor defensively.

Brandon Wood: F
22 G, .169/.246/.220, 3 Runs, 0 HR, 6 RBI
I'm not sure how someone can be a major league player without speed, defensive skills, or the ability to hit for power or average. Wood was decent for his first nine games here (.292/.370/.417) but only has three hits since. I have never seen a third baseman in his ninth professional season have less of a clue at how to field a bunt. He should be released when Alvarez returns if not sooner.

Pirates Add Outfielder Xavier Paul

2011-04-26T15:01:00.004-04:00

The Pirates claimed reserve outfielder Xavier Paul today. He will join the team in the next few days necessitating a corresponding move.

Paul has hit only .233/.280/.329 in 160 major league plate appearances with the Dodgers. However, he dominated AAA pitching with a batting line of .320/.380/.502 for three seasons including .325/.384/.579 in 2010. He is 26 and bats lefthanded.

It looks from here like the odd man out will be another lefthanded hitting outfielder, John Bowker. Bowker is a year older than Paul and has hit .238/.288/.391 in 607 MLB plate appearances, so it seems like there might be a little more upside with Paul.

To me, there's no reason to have a player on the roster who does nothing but pinch hit unless that player is a legitimate power bat. Paul is faster than Bowker and could pinch run once in a while, but he's not likely to start many games. Constant shuffling of marginal players is nothing new in Pittsburgh; the solution is to be in first place and win the World Series so we don't have waiver priority to claim these guys in the future.

Series Preview: Washington Nationals

2011-04-23T15:38:00.004-04:00

With Major League Baseball's recent takeover of the Dodgers, I am reminded of their takeover of the Expos. MLB took over the team because it supposedly couldn't compete, but then they went 83-79 in 2002 and 2003 despite MLB spending no money on them. One of those years, they were in contention when rosters expanded in September - yet MLB wouldn't let the team bring up any prospects like all 29 other teams do every year. They also imposed a ridiculous travel schedule in which the Expos played a quarter of their "home" games in Puerto Rico. By 2005 the once-proud Expos franchise was in Washington, playing in a crumbling stadium. Having been to RFK I am actually kind of shocked they got a building permit.

Now MLB has taken over the Dodgers, allegedly because their owner Frank McCourt got divorced and can't afford to field a competitive team. In this McCourt era where he supposedly ran the team into the ground, the Dodgers reached the playoffs four times in seven years, making the NLCS in two of the last three years. Under McCourt's ownership, in 2008 there was more excitement surrounding the Dodgers than there had been in 20 years. The '08 and '09 teams were the first Dodger teams to win a playoff series since 1988. I find it hard to believe that with MLB controlling the Dodgers' finances, anything will be much better.

This preview hasn't really said a lot about the Nationals. The real key to this team is Matt Stairs. It always is Matt Stairs. Here's a picture of Miguel Batista hitting on Miss Iowa at a Nationals game.Pirates vs. Washington Nationals
Saturday 7:05, Sunday 1:35, Monday 7:05
Today the Nationals go with the veteran Livan Hernandez (2-1, 2.88) while the Pirates counter with Jeff Karstens (1-0, 4.50). I would have thought that there is nothing else to say about Livan Hernandez by way of previewing this, his 450th major league start. And I would be wrong. Leave it to Clint Hurdle, as per Colin Dunlap of the Post-Gazette:

"He’s like the big guy at the company picnic who drinks all the beer and wins all the trophies."

We all were thinking it but no one was saying it. My pick is the Pirates.

Sunday the Pirates go with ace Kevin Correia (3-1, 2.48) against Jason Marquis (1-0, 3.26). It says something about the state of pitching when Jason Marquis has a winning record in his career and has made an All-Star team in the past two years. Marquis had the distinction in 2006 of winning a World Series ring and signing an $11 million contract in the following off-season despite going 14-16 with a 6.02 ERA, leading the league in home runs allowed (35) and earned runs alowed (130). It's a charmed life. My pick is the Pirates.

By the way, it's really hard to tell if a woman just doesn't want to hang out with you, or if she legitimately doesn't want to go to a Pirates-Nationals game. Pirates-Nationals and Pirates-Astros games aren't good for those who can't handle rejection.

Monday, the Pirates will give the ball to Paul Maholm (0-3, 4.30) against John Lannan (2-1, 3.43). John Lannan wrote a lot of songs about peace but he beat his wife. My pick is the Pirates.

J-Rod Era Ends, Wood Claimed

2011-04-22T15:10:00.004-04:00

The Josh Rodriguez experiment ended yesterday as the Pirates designated their utility infielder for assignment. You have to wonder what happened here.

The Pirates owned the first pick in the Rule V draft and presumably had plenty of time to decide on who they wanted. I was on board with the choice of Rodriguez since he had hit well in AAA and was capable of playing shortstop. It seemed like a good idea to bring in absolutely anyone to replace Ronny Cedeno.

Rodriguez got into only seven of the 19 games played so far, starting three times. The first time he played a full game was also apparently his final appearance in a Pirates uniform Thursday night. Josh went 1-for-3, drove in a run and also reached base another time via hit by pitch. Then a day after collecting his first major league hit, Rodriguez was gone.

One wonders why Ronny Cedeno deserves to get a shot at a 592nd game playing in the big leagues tonight, a game which will also be his 204th game in a Pirates uniform. After 1,915 major league plate appearances in which Cedeno hit .242/.282/.351 overall, Pirates management is intent on continuing to give him a shot to see if he can turn things around. Yet after 14 plate appearances, Josh Rodriguez is judged not a major league shortstop.

I'm not saying Rodriguez was the definitive answer, but we'll never know. I am reminded of the time when Brandon Phillips batted .000 in nine plate appearances for the 2005 Indians. The Tribe sent their infielder to Cincinnati for a player to be named later. It was a shortsighted move not because everyone knew what Phillips would become, but because no one knew what Phillips would become.

To be sure, Neil Huntington has had his share of success in the Rule V draft. One All-Star setup man isn't a bad haul in a four year stretch. But with the second and first picks in the draft the past two years, how did we end up with two players who batted a grand total of 25 times in Pittsburgh?

Brandon Wood Claimed
The reason for this claim is that with the #1 waiver priority, the Pirates claimed infielder Brandon Wood from the Angels. I remembered Wood being a top prospect, but it's also true that he's hit .168/.197/.259 in 494 plate appearances in his MLB career. Now OBP isn't everything, but .197 is pretty bad considering National League pitchers compiled a .177 OBP last year. No matter, he isn't Ronny Cedeno so I'd like to see him starting and find out if he can ever learn to hit the curveball. Wood did put up very good numbers for several years in AAA, so maybe he can figure things out in Pittsburgh.

Series Preview: Florida Marlins

2011-04-19T18:00:00.003-04:00

The second place Pittsburgh Pirates (8-8) start a three game series in Miami tonight against the Florida Marlins (8-6). This is Pittsburgh's only trip to Florida this year. After a few years as a .500 or slightly better team, the Marlins retooled by signing a lot of famous Cleveland sports. Their retooled three-star outfield of Grady Sizemore, Bernie Kosar, and Don King has the Marlins flying high in second place. The fans have really embraced this team as average attendance is up to 21,278. To be fair, a lot of those people are not baseball fans but they just came to see the great tradition and game day experience of venerable Joe Robbie/Pro Player/Dolphins/Land Shark/Sun Life Stadium.

The Pirates are fresh off a 3-1 series win in Cincinnati which propelled them to within a game of the division leading Reds. The top Pirates at the plate have been Jose Tabata, .317/.427/.524 with 14 runs scored and eight steals, and Neil Walker, .290/.380/.516 with 13 runs scored and 12 RBI. The Marlins' lineup has struggled overall but the standouts so far are left fielder Logan Morrison, .327/.429/.654 with four homers and 11 RBI, and first baseman Gaby Sanchez, .340/.419/.472 with nine runs scored. This is a midweek series which will hardly get much airtime on Baseball Tonight, but these are a couple of young teams hoping to prove they're for real - more interesting to me than the Yankees.Pirates vs. Florida Marlins
Tuesday 7:10, Wednesday 7:10, Thursday 7:10
Paul Maholm (0-2, 2.33) gets the ball for the Pirates today. Maholm has pitched brilliantly in two of his three starts but the Pirates lost all of them, getting only five runs on offense total in the three games. This continues to be an important season for Maholm as he needs to prove he's a durable and reliable starter in his contract year. Florida's starter Josh Johnson (2-0, 1.35), on the other hand, has blossomed into a legit ace and a Cy Young candidate. He has a 2.73 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 8.6 K/9 since 2009 and brings it with a 94 mph fastball, 87 mph changeup, 86 mph slider, and now a slow curveball which he has mixed in a few times a game for the first time this year. My pick is the Pirates.

Tomorrow Charlie Morton (2-0, 1.64) goes for the Pirates against Ricky Nolasco (1-0, 4.05). Morton continues to prove me wrong for saying he shouldn't be in the starting rotation, although at some point he will need to throw more strikes to stay effective. Fangraphs posted an unreasonably detailed article on Morton yesterday. Nolasco has decent stats but looks to me like a candidate for arm trouble - he was injured last year and now his fastball velocity is down and so are his strikeout totals, while his home run totals are up. My pick is the Pirates.

James McDonald (0-1, 7.47) will look for his first win Thursday in a game which closes out this road trip. Despite disappointing results, McDonald's fastball velocity is where it was last year and his curveball still looks great. He and Ryan Doumit need to use that curve as a strikeout pitch; it's his best pitch by far yet he's only throwing it 20% of the time this season. The Marlins counter with Chris Volstad (0-1, 5.59), who is about as average as a pitcher can be - he is 27-27, 4.50 in his career and has no great pitches and no poor ones. My pick is the Pirates.

A Relief Ace Emerges

2011-04-18T07:00:00.001-04:00

When Joel Hanrahan came over to the Pirates from Washington, he looked like a classic mediocre pitcher. He was 27 and owned a 5.30 ERA in 115 career games. He also had a 7.71 season ERA at the time of the trade in June 2009 and had walked five batters per nine innings in his career.

Hanrahan had an excellent second half in 2009, only not much of anyone was watching. For the Pirates that year he had a 1.72 ERA in 33 games, struck out 10.6 batters per nine innings and allowed zero home runs. Batters hit .204 against him and slugged .265. Those numbers were lost in his season stats since he could only bring his ERA down to 4.78.

Last year, Hanrahan dialed up his fastball velocity from an average of 94 to an average of 96 mph. He hit 99 with regularity. He had a 15.75 ERA on April 22 but the rest of the way it was 2.88. He also struck out a Marmolesque 100 batters in 69.2 innings. Batters managed a line of only .221/.299/.350 off the ace for the season. This performance prompted the Pirates and manager Clint Hurdle to anoint Hanrahan the closer before spring training.

This year, Hanrahan has managed an average fastball of 97.3 mph and has been perfect in five save chances. Also, under new management, Hanrahan has adopted an entirely new pitch selection. Last year he threw 69% fastballs and 31% sliders. This year he has thrown his fastball a full 90% of the time.

A side benefit of throwing mostly fastballs is the ability to go more than one inning. When Hanrahan retired four straight batters to close the April 4 game in St. Louis, incredibly he earned the Pirates' first save of more than one inning since 2007. He did it again with a five out save Sunday, rescuing Evan Meek - who incidentally looks injured from this view - and hitting 101 mph on the FSN radar gun while pitching to his seventh batter.

While more famous veterans have lost their closing jobs or are in danger of doing so, Joel Hanrahan has quietly become one of baseball's best closers. The nation will no doubt see this in the World Series.

Series Preview: Cincinnati Reds

2011-04-15T12:28:00.005-04:00

The Pirates (5-7) will try to make up ground on the division leading Reds (8-4) in four game series in Cincinnati. It's my favorite type of series - the four game wraparound.

I've been wanting to go see the new Reds stadium because it's sort of stupid that I've been to 20 stadiums including Oakland, Tampa Bay, etc., but not this nearby division rival. Unfortunately I only have one friend in Cincinnati who likes me enough that I could spend the weekend at their house, and I took her up on that offer in 2005 resulting in the number of friends of that description decreasing to zero and me watching this series on TV.

Like many of us the Pirates are in a poor situation with no justifiable reason to have a tremendous amount of hope, yet like many of us they have 150 more games scheduled and will try their best to right the ship. I've been to all six home games and I see a team that is reinvigorated, talented, and just hasn't gotten everything together yet. Crosby and Malkin aren't playing, but it's still worth watching this bunch.

On the other side, the Reds have really done a beautiful job of constructing a team. All their regulars are in the prime of their careers except the veteran leader Scott Rolen and the up-and-coming star Jay Bruce. Their bench is a mix of useful and versatile veterans and young players who would be able to step in if anything went wrong. Their rotation, the reliable veteran Bronson Arroyo along with some young, high-strikeout guys. A lights out bullpen. The Pirates have zero starting shortstops; the Reds have two.

Except for the high likelihood of violent crime in most of their city neighborhoods, it really is a charmed life in Cincinnati. Also, everyone knows all the babes in Ohio root for the Indians so I am forced to use a picture of Buckeyes babes.Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
Friday 7:10, Saturday 1:10, Sunday 1:10, Monday 7:10
Pittsburgh goes with Charlie Morton (1-0, 2.08) against Arroyo (2-0, 2.08). I was the first person to criticize keeping Morton in the rotation. I'm not sold yet but it looks like the right decision so far. In particular, his recent home start really impressed me - it looked like a classic Charlie Morton implosion in the first inning but he didn't let it get to him and let his stuff power him to what ended up as a strong seven inning start. I have a lot of experience in admitting when I'm wrong and I'm quite good at it. My pick is the Pirates.

Tomorrow it's a day game and James McDonald (0-0, 5.56) faces Edinson Volquez (2-0, 5.82). Volquez has upped his average fastball velocity to 94 this season and it's still only his third-best pitch. In a battle of strikeout hitters against strikeout pitchers, I'm officially scared. My pick is still the Pirates.

The Reds are going with Mike Leake (1-0, 6.75) Sunday and the Pirates haven't yet announced a starter. I'm going to announce it for them - it's Jeff Karstens (1-0, 0.00). He had a brilliant outing in relief of the injured Ross Ohlendorf and absolutely deserves the open rotation spot at this point. I also hate Mike Leake. You know those people who got out of college, immediately got a great job and never will realize life is hard? That happened to Mike Leake. My pick is the Pirates.

Kevin Correia (2-1, 2.70) starts Monday night and the Reds haven't yet named a starter. Clearly they are intimidated. My pick is the Pirates.

Series Preview: Milwaukee Brewers

2011-04-13T15:00:00.006-04:00

The Pirates play only six home games against the Brewers this year - a huge decrease from the 45 last year. For a team that made a lot of offseason improvements, Weeks-Gomez-Braun-Fielder-McGehee-Kotsay-Betancourt-Lucroy sure looks like a bullshit lineup to me. That looks to me like a lineup of four guys who would start on any team and four who should be platoon or bench players. Pittsburgh knows nothing about that.Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Wednesday 7:05, Thursday 7:05
Tonight, Pirates ace Kevin Correia (2-0, 1.29) faces the Brewers' Shaun Marcum (1-1, 4.22). Marcum pitched his whole career for the Blue Jays so this is the first time the Pirates will face him even though he's been around since 2006. Despite being righthanded he's a classic junkballer. He throws two different fastballs which combine for only 33% of pitches this season. Marcum also mixes in a slider, cutter, curveball, and changeup, and has had sucess with a 3.73 ERA and 7.3 K/9 since 2007. Those numbers are compiled in the AL East. For the Bucs, Correia looked like a true ace in his first two starts, then was shortsightedly used in relief. I hope there are no negative effects. My pick is the Pirates.

The quick two-game series closes tomorrow with Pittsburgh's Paul Maholm (0-1, 2.19) against Randy Wolf (0-2, 7.20). Age catches up to all men and this could be Randy Wolf's year. The Brewers got a new manager, Ron Roenicke, so don't expect him to go with Wolf too long if he gets hit hard. My pick is the Pirates.

Home Game 4: Nothing To Say

2011-04-11T01:35:00.003-04:00

Sunday, April 10
Rockies 6, Pirates 5
Kids' Day
Record: 5-5

Day games after night games are always hard and it doesn't make things easier when it's a day game after a night game followed by a friend's birthday party. But the sun blessed the city of Pittsburgh with its rare presence and the teams were scheduled to play at 1:35.

My associate Matt had a hard time procuring a six pack of Budweiser but for the low price of 12.84 I was able to do same. Three beers each later, we were in PNC Park to see a couple of hard throwing young pitchers face off, James McDonald and Jhoulys Chacin. I can't overemphasize how nice this day was. I make fun of Pittsburgh a lot but this was a beautiful day in the best baseball stadium in the world in one of the more photogenic towns in America.

Maggie and Lucas were there of course and we were ready to watch this pitchers' duel. Only it didn't materialize. Colorado picked up four runs in a first inning disaster which was capped by a three-run home run courtesy of Jose Lopez. I would have picked a different day for Jose Lopez to get his career together.

The home team got one back on a Ronny Cedeno sacrifice fly. They got the rest back in the third inning. Jose Tabata was hit by a pitch, Neil Walker singled, McCutchen singled scoring Tabata, and then Lyle Overbay rocketed a double to deep center field to clear the bases. It was 4-4 and we settled in.

My associates Brittany, Chelsea, and Amanda were also attending and were hoping to sit in 318 with us. They bought tickets one section over and the usher actually checked their tickets despite the park being less than half full... Being resourceful girls they were able to hang out for an inning before being forced into slightly better seats. You have to hate the unofficial Major League Baseball "No Fun" policy. Matt and I could blow it with girls without the help of a major corporation.

No more scoring took place until the seventh when McDonald came out of the game with two outs and a runner (Dexter Fowler) on first. With Evan Meek apparently still injured, the choice out of the bullpen was Mike Crotta. And it was a disaster. Fowler stole second, Jonathan Herrera walked, then Jason Giambi singled scoring Fowler to tie the game. We were looking for the hook but Crotta remained. Troy Tulowitzki walked. Some asshole pinch ran for Giambi at second. And then Crotta walked in the winning run. Life in Pittsburgh is not always perfect.

Loss or no loss, we were 5-5 and there was no reason to get mad. It was one of America's great days in one of America's great cities and we ended up drinking in the Hall of Fame Club with some of America's great babes. For a loss, it was a good win.

Home Game 3: Stop The Music

2011-04-10T07:00:00.003-04:00

Saturday, April 9
Rockies 6, Pirates 4
Fireworks Night, Free Poster
Record: 5-4

Everyone thinks that my love of Rihanna's music is ironic. Of course I've been to shows like godspeed you black emperor! at the Beachland, TV on the Radio in Tennessee, Brian Wilson with the Philadelphia Symphony at the Mann...I guess I have enough credibility to pretend that I'm a fan of music. But home game 3 really proves that my unironic love of Rihanna's "Don't Stop The Music" is justified.

During Friday's epic win, the Pirates played "Don't Stop The Music" in the sixth inning. It was the earliest recorded playing of Rihanna at PNC Park and it spurred the Pirates on to victory eight innings later. The Rockies cooperated by having a mound conference as the song was playing, allowing us to hear a few more bars. It was awesome.

I had a great crew of associates for Saturday's game which included fellow season ticket holders Lucas and Maggie along with special guests Bhargav, John, Tim, Christina, and Maggie's mother. It's conclusive proof that I still know seven people who talk to me. And we all wanted to hear Rihanna.

Fast forward to the ninth inning. Pittsburgh trailed 6-4, but Colorado's lights out closer Huston Street was unavailable. Matt Lindstrom came in to close it out in his stead. This was a good thing for the Pirates. Matt Lindstrom of the 1.65 WHIP for the past two consecutive seasons. Matt Lindstrom who batters tagged for a .306 average last season. I was ready for an epic comeback.

Ronny Cedeno flied out to start the inning, but Matt Diaz and Jason Jaramillo got consecutive singles. Jaramillo at first was the tying run and the batter, pinch hitter Steven Pearce, was the winning run. Lindstrom was pitching on no rest, coming off an outing the previous day in which he allowed three of the four batters he faced to reach base. The Rockies were reeling.

If you know anything about PNC Park, you know that no matter what the score, if it's the eighth inning or later, they play a Rihanna song as soon as two men are on base. I was pumped to hear my favorite song and I was pumped to see a Pirates victory.

They didn't play Rihanna and we lost. This one is on whatever cretin decided not to play Rihanna.

Home Game 2: Ice Cream Is Cold

2011-04-09T07:00:00.001-04:00

Friday, April 8
Pirates 4, Rockies 3, 14 innings
Buc Night, Free T-shirt, Free Poster
Record: 5-3

Despite the heartbreaking loss a day before, the score was 0-0 when a new game started the next night. Ross Ohlendorf spent the entire offseason getting ready to rebound from a year in which he pitched well, had a 4.07 ERA, yet only won one game and was cursed with injury. But baseball can be a heartless bitch. Ohlendorf hurt his arm in the third inning and headed to the trainer's room with what was obviously a major injury. Pittsburgh trailed 3-0.

With Jorge de la Rosa pitching though, that meant the Pirates had about ten hours to come back. Jorge de la Rosa would take an hour to make Hot Pockets. The Pirates scored one on three walks and a groundout in the fourth, another on Jose Tabata's solo homer over the center field fence in the fifth, another on Jason Jaramillo's single in the sixth, and it was 3-3. Jeff Karstens was shutting the Rockies down. It was really cold.

With the game tied, the wind blowing, and the temperature 43 degrees and dropping, my associate John and I decided to spur the team on to victory by getting a couple of ice cream cones. It was a really funny order which freaked out a lot of people, and it also was an order which made us really, really cold. We might have gone to the next stand for hot chocolate if we planned on seeing another three hours of baseball.

John Bowker led off the seventh with a pinch hit single. I announced to the group that Tabata was clearly bunting. Not only did he bunt, he showed bunt before the pitch. The Rockies countered by charging from first and third with the other two infielders running to cover first and second base.

When you have a guy who is a .300 hitter all the time, what do you think is his batting average if you take the bunt off and let him swing away with all four infielders out of position? Particularly a right handed batter with no one playing on the right side of the infield? We won't know. Clint Hurdle not only kept the bunt on, but called for a bunt and run on consecutive pitches. Rockies reliever Matt Lindstrom threw a pitch Jose Tabata couldn't bunt at, Bowker was a dead duck at second, and I couldn't be mad because I like our manager, predictable/stupid bunts and all.

In the top of the tenth, Pedro Alvarez made the best play I've ever seen live by a third baseman. The bases were loaded with two outs when Seth Smith lined a double down the third base line. Alvarez dove to his right to keep it in the infield, which already was a great play. I didn't even expect a throw, but Alvarez threw a rocket from his knees. The play on Smith wasn't even that close as he was gunned down at first. Third basemen don't throw out runners from their knees.

In the thirteenth inning, a bunch of guys above us tried to start the wave with 300 people left. They also made fun of a dad and his four-year-old girl for leaving after ten innings.

Of course, the Pirates won it in the fourteenth on a Jose Tabata double scoring Josh Rodriguez with two outs. It was the perfect storm of coldness. We drank zero beers, it was cold, we got ice cream, and the game lasted five and a half hours. No one mentioned the possibility of leaving. Great work by my associates John, Lucas, and Maggie. All of us would be back the next night.

Home Game 1: Sunburn and Hot Dogs

2011-04-08T07:00:00.000-04:00

Thursday, April 7
Rockies 7, Pirates 1
Home Opener
Record: 4-3

I'm not actually sure why, but in the months leading up to this home opener there was definitely a heightened level of excitement in town for this 2011 Pirates season. Perhaps Pittsburgh is realizing that this team has a great core of young players and deciding to get on board now. I personally am excited because this is my first season as an 81 game season ticket holder for any team, and having tickets to 81 baseball games means I get to go to a lot of baseball games.

It had basically been winter for weeks, but as always the sun shone high the morning of Opening Day. Ten thousand faithful fans and 28,000 who won't go to another game this season gathered on the North Shore to stand around drinking in parking lots, getting sunburned with marginal acquaintances. Sunburned because we are really white. In related news, one PBR and one Four Loko already is enough to constitute a bad idea before a day game.

My associate Lucas had successfully driven in from Washington, D.C., for the series, despite some midweek vandalism to his car which was no doubt perpetrated by some Colorado Springs natives who were still bitter that the East Coast media elites think Larry Walker's stats were park-inflated. In the left field elevator we were asked if we were partial season ticket holders. We hate partial season ticket holders.

Our seats are directly in the middle of a long row. The people on our left were quite annoyed that we chose to get there by walking down the aisle to the seats. People five and six rows up were making comments about our audacity in atttempting to sit in our seats. Luckily these were Opening Day fans so they would be gone in four innings, no doubt dealing on the way home with the revelation that they still don't like baseball.

There's not much to say about the game. Colorado got two runs in the top of the first, and that's all they would need to win on this day. Their potent lineup didn't let up though, chasing Paul Maholm early, and the game was basically over in the fifth inning. We began to drown our sorrows in hot dogs. Our associates Maggie and Laura, Maggie a full season ticket holder like ourselves and Laura attending her first ever game, were gifted with many unrequested and possibly unwanted hot dogs. But we are Pirates fans and so we ate mediocre hot dogs in already stale buns on a beautiful day while our team lost 7-1. I left my free schedule magnet, immediately remembered and went back for it, yet it was gone. Nobody wins 162.

Series Preview: St. Louis Cardinals

2011-04-04T16:58:00.006-04:00

Normally the year starts slowly, but this year's World Champion Pirates start the season with ten straight home games. And so it is that the heavily favored Pirates, they of the .667 winning percentage, head to St. Louis to meet the lovable losers - the Cardinals, who have mustered only a .333 winning percentage. I normally have a rule that I never post the same preview babes more than once, but there are babes who it's worth breaking rules for and these are two of them.It was barely April before this year's Cardinals season started to look doomed. Ace pitcher Adam Wainwright, who won 39 games in the past two years while finishing in the top 3 in Cy Young voting both times, was already out for the season after right elbow surgery. Ryan Theriot was signed to lead off and play shortstop because, you know, I guess every team in the division needs a shortstop who fields poorly and hits poorly. And now five-tool slugger Matt Holliday has been placed on the 15-day disabled list with an appendectomy. Yesterday they went with a lineup of Theriot-Jay-Pujols-Berkman-Rasmus-Molina-Schumaker-Garcia-Descalso. That's not good. I don't know who Daniel Descalso is and I'm not looking it up.

Pirates vs. Cardinals
Monday 8:15, Tuesday 8:15, Wednesday 1:45
In a matchup that causes one to ask "Who the hell could possibly be these teams' fifth starters?" the Pirates go with Charlie Morton (2-12, 7.57 in 2010) against the Cardinals' Kyle Lohse (4-8, 6.55). Enough has already been said about Charlie Morton; I'm rooting for him just like you are. As far as Kyle Lohse, well, when your peak is going six innings every start and giving up three runs, the results aren't pretty after two years of steep decline. My pick is the Pirates.

Tomorrow night it's James McDonald (4-6, 4.02) against Kyle McClellan (1-4, 2.27). This is as interesting as fifth starter matchups get. McDonald of course was the Pirates' ace last year, but he's pushed back to this start because of lingering injury problems. The Pirates say he will be limited to 85-90 pitches. Let's hope he's actually ready to make this start, and not just making it for no reason. For what it's worth, I'm not entirely sure the actual starter won't be Jeff Karstens (3-10, 4.92). It's not like Karstens will be required out of the long relief role for Morton's start tonight...

McClellan moves to the rotation this year after quietly becoming the best reliever in the STL in 2010. He throws a 91 mph fastball with movement and a sharp-breaking curve. As a starter he will have to mix in his cutter changeup more often. If anyone can convert relievers to starters, it's Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan. Nobody knows what his secret is but I'm going to reveal it. It's standing around chewing tobacco. My pick is the Pirates.

Wednesday, both club's aces face off as Kevin Correia (1-0, 3.00) takes on Chris Carpenter (0-0, 2.57). For obvious reasons, my pick is the Pirates.

Series Victory! 108-Win Pace!

2011-04-03T22:03:00.012-04:00

All signs still point to the 2011 Pirates being a new team. After winning only 17 games and one series on the road last year, this year's edition of the Buccos took two of three games in Wrigley Field to open the season. The team also showed resiliency in following up a tough loss with a thrilling, comeback win in the ninth inning off the league's best closer.

Friday: Pirates 6, Cubs 3
The season dawned cold and rainy in Chicago, but we were warm and only a little hung over inside WFC Blog headquarters in Friendship. The Cubs pushed across two early runs - one unearned courtesy of a Pedro Alvarez error - but Ryan Doumit caught a runner stealing and Kevin Correia battled through a few jams despite clearly not having his best stuff.

Cubs starter Ryan Dempster cruised through the first four innings but started to visibly tire in the fifth. The Pirates loaded the bases on a hit and two walks to bring Neil Walker to the plate. We had no choice but to bump "Black and Yellow" throughout the at bat - and what an at bat it was. Walker worked a 3-2 count like a ten year veteran, then fouled one off, then parked a straight 92 mph fastball in the right field stands. The Pirates led 4-2 and never looked back.

Assists go to Andrew McCutchen for his two-run homer, Correia for a great Opening Day start, and the Cubs fans for leaving in the fifth inning. It was a great day for Pittsburgh. One win means more than everything negative that had been said in the offseason.

Saturday: Cubs 5, Pirates 3
The story for most of this game was starter Paul Maholm, who tossed 6.2 scoreless innings and scattered five hits and two walks. It was Maholm at his best; the Cubs could hit nearly all his offerings but those hits seemingly inevitably ended in outs. Leading 3-0 on a couple of early runs and a seventh inning Garrett Jones solo shot, the Pirates appeared to have this one wrapped up when Evan Meek entered in the eighth.

Everything came unraveled quickly. The inning started with a leadoff walk, a wild pitch, a double, and an ugly error on Lyle Overbay. Two outs and a couple of singles later, it was 3-3 and it was clearly time to go get Meek. No worries going forward, but Evan just had one of those days where he didn't have it.

With two runners on in a tie game in the eighth, the game was clearly on the line. Choosing slavish devotion to the save rule over the best chance to win, Clint Hurdle went not to his ace Joel Hanrahan but to Chris Resop - who promptly lost the game on a walk and a two-run double. Carlos Marmol struck out three Pirates in the ninth; the game was in the books less than 30 minutes after we were thinking of our ironic Facebook statuses.

Sunday: Pirates 5, Cubs 4
Baseball allows us to do that which we can hardly ever do in life - live each day as a completely new day. No matter how hard we may fall one day, a new game is scheduled 24 hours later. And it looked like the Pirates were going to lose this one too.

With the Pirates trailing 4-3, Carlos Marmol entered to close it out for the second straight day. Entering today, Pirates hitters were hitting .131 off Marmol in his career as he had a cool 15.1 K/9 against Pittsburgh. This cause was lost if one ever was. But Jones worked a walk and Walker followed with a bloop single. Overbay bunted the runners to second and third - a strange move with your cleanup hitter, but Clint Hurdle loves the bunt. And then this happened.

Alvarez hit a weak grounder, so weak that Cubs shortstop Starlin Castro clearly wasn't going to have time to get the out at first. Rather than eat the ball and keep it at 4-4, Castro made an ill-advised throw to first. And Walker didn't stop running. He scored in an Enos Slaugheresque dash, it was 5-4, Hanrahan shut down the Cubs, and the Pirates left town with a winning record.

Series MVP: Neil Walker. Walker went 4-for-13 with a walk, three runs scored, two doubles, and six RBI including the Opening Day grand slam. He also provided flawless defense including a outs on a couple of balls that, dare I say, Freddy Sanchez wouldn't have touched. Honorable mention goes to Jose Tabata, debuting in the leadoff spot by reaching base seven times and scored five runs over the weekend.

Series Goat: Cubs fans. I'm all for making a baseball game an event, but Cubs fans seriously don't want to win. Fans are positively joyful when an opposing player hits a home run into the left field bleachers - because they'll get a chance to throw the ball back, of course. When Correia was pulled after an obvious great start, a Cubs fan above the dugout was in his face as if he had just gotten rocked. Some guy dumped a full beer on Garrett Jones as he tried to play a ball off the wall. Seems like Lee Elia was right.

Also, your ivy is pretty clearly dead.

Who The Hell Are These Guys? Pirates Relief Pitching, Part II

2011-04-02T12:55:00.005-04:00

I've already covered the relief pitchers you've heard of. However, If you watched the seventh inning yesterday, you might have noticed that the Pirates have some relief pitchers that you've never heard of. I also don't know anything about them but I'm going to do some research as I write this post and write in that authoritative tone that makes some people think this is a legitimate site.

Guy You've Never Heard Of: Garrett Olson
With Joe Beimel hurt, Garrett Olson opens the season as the only lefthander in the Pirates bullpen. So you'll see him quite a bit in the early season. Olson throws a 90 mph fastball, 81 mph curveball, and an 82 mph changeup. Olson is not too terrible, but he is kind of terrible. His main problem is the straight fastball with no movement.

Olsen was a supplemental first round pick in 2005 but flamed out as a starter with the Orioles and Mariners. The Mariners converted him to relief in mid-2009 and he's had quasi-respectable numbers since: a 3.90 ERA out of the bullpen in 2009 and a 4.54 in 2010. He might be pretty decent in a lefthanded specialist role - last year he held lefties to a .245/.322/.377 batting line. Righthanders are able to drive the ball more - .284/.339/.490 in 2010 - but he's not completely helpless.

2008: 133 IP, 9-10, 6.65, 1.73 WHIP, 5.6 K/9
2009: 80 IP, 3-5, 5.60, 1.41 WHIP, 5.3 K/9
2010: 38 IP, 0-3, 4.54, 1.51 WHIP, 7.4 K/9

Overall, Olsen should be the second-best lefty out of any bullpen or AAA depth who pitches half the season in the majors as he did for Seattle last year. He's our lefty specialist now, deal with it.

Guy You've Never Heard Of: Jose Veras
Veras probably is the closest thing the Pirates have to a seventh inning setup man. This is his age 29 season and Veras is already a fairly established guy with 177 games of major league experience.

2008: 58 IP, 5-3, 3.59, 1.41 WHIP, 9.8 K/9
2009: 50 IP, 4-3, 5.19, 1.39 WHIP, 7.2 K/9
2010: 48 IP, 3-3, 3.75, 1.27 WHIP, 10.1 K/9

Veras has enough stuff to be an elite reliever. He relies mainly on a 95 mph fastball and an 80 mph curveball, mixing in an 85 mph splitfingered fastball. All those are plus pitches, but Veras struggles with command and has walked five batters per nine innings throughout his career. He also has struggled at times with the long ball, which is largely an issue of missing over the plate with his fastball. His curveball is his best pitch and is a strikeout pitch. His 10.1 K/9 total last year is enough to merit a spot in the late innings for this year's Pirates.

Guy You've Never Heard Of: Michael Crotta
I have to be honest, I didn't even know this guy was on the team until I checked the roster this morning. Based on the fact that he's had bad statistics throughout his career, I'm going to guess it's because he's a bad pitcher. He went 5-10 with a 4.93 ERA last year in Indianapolis; I really didn't even view him as a serious candidate to make the team. But if someone likes you, I'm all for giving them a shot even if you know that person is terrible.

MLB 11 The Show Game #2 Summary - PIT v CHC

2011-04-02T12:29:00.008-04:00

Solid Pitching, Tabata's Speed Lift Pirates Over Cubs

Chicago - Paul Maholm started his 2011 campaign in a big way this afternoon in Chicago as he went 8 innings allowing 1 run in the Pirates 4-1 win over the Chicago Cubs. Marlon Byrd, a thorn to the side of the Pirates so far this season, was the only blemish on Maholm's outing, as he crushed a 2-1 count to left field and out of Wrigley Field.

The Pirates scoring started early and with some regularity through the first half of the game. Jose Tabata singled on what should have been a routine out; if not for former Pirate Aramis Ramirez bobbling the ball at third. With Neil Walker striking out, Tabata was able to steal second base without much difficulity. Tabata's speed allowed him to score from second base following a Lyle Overbay single to left field.

Fastforward to the third inning, and this game was starting to look like the Jose Tabata Show as he had a lead-off triple in the third inning. Andrew McCutchen proved why is was ranked number 1 in the Top 10 Now list on MLB Network as he smartly laid down a sacrafic bunt, allowing Tabata to score from third and open up a nice lead for Maholm. In the fifth inning, the Jose Tabata Show entered what you could call it's third season. With two outs, Tabata singles to center. Once again, he steals second base, this time in a close call. Neil Walker hits a double to left, scoring Tabata and putting the Pirates up 3-0. Incase you weren't keeping score, thats three runs for Tabata and a RBI for three different Pirates, showing why the work that manager Clint Hurdle focused on this spring was so vital. The Pirates would threaten to score runs several more times throughout the game, but they simply could not come up with the big hit until the top of the ninth inning when Ryan Doumit hit a ball to left center off of Cubs reliever Sean Marshall that made it about 5 rows deep.

All in all, a solid bounce back following yesterday's loss to Ryan Dempster. Tomorrow's match up features Ross "The Rocket Scientist" Ohlendorf vs. Matt Garza. Join us tomorrow on the Pirates WFC Blog for the rubber match predictions.

Box Score

Prediction v Real World 0-2

Eron McMillen is a contributing writer to the PiratesWFC blog. He can be followed on twitter (@eronmcmillen).

MLB The Show Game #1 Summary - PIT v CHC

2011-04-02T10:46:00.010-04:00

For those of you who were looking forward to my Opening Day 2011 MLB 11 The Show prediction, I apologize for not getting around to having the time to write the blog post. I was able to post a game recap on my Twitter feed (@eronmcmillen), so if there is ever a game in which I cannot post to the blog a full recap, check out the tweets for a quick 140 word summary.

In my opening prediction, I was able to call a few things correct. I did foresee a grand slam and a decent start by Kevin Correia. However, in the game prediction, the grand slam came via Marlon Byrd of the Cubs, and unlike the real life game, the Cubbies won 5-1 over the Pirates. Correia (0-1 6.43) pitched 7 innings; giving up 5 runs, all earned, 1 walk and 1 strike out. Jose Veras came in to pitch in relief for 1 inning and sat his batters down in order. Correia's counterpart, Ryan Dempster (1-0 1.00) pitched a complete game giving up 8 hits, 1 run, while striking out 8 and walking no one.

Box score

Prediction v Real World 0-1

Eron is a contributing writer to the PiratesWFC blog. He can be followed on twitter (@eronmcmillen).

Series Preview: Chicago Cubs

2011-04-01T10:17:00.006-04:00

It's 42 degrees in Chicago, windy, and there's a 70 percent chance of showers this afternoon. This might not be the best day for checking out babes on the WGN telecast. Luckily, this is the day of rebirth, hope, an 0-0 record for all of us, and generally the reason we make a halfhearted attempt at living through each winter. For those of you who need things explained, it is Opening Day.Weird things can happen in Chicago. The last time I was in Chicago I hung out with a group that included a David Crosby-looking guy, an Elvis Costello-looking guy, and a hot chick. Either that or it was the real David Crosby, the real Elvis Costello, and Natalie Imbruglia got a pretty damn good backing band.

Pirates vs. Cubs
Friday 2:20, Saturday 1:05, Sunday 2:20
Chicago's lineup is actually hilarious. A good sign that you're losing the war is that your archrival has a 2-3-4-5 of Colby Rasmus, Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, and Lance Berkman - and in those same spots you are going with Starlin Castro, Marlon Byrd, Carlos Pena, and Aramis Ramirez. It's like every time Somalia attacks Ethiopia. Our Ronny Cedeno at least bats at the bottom of the lineup.

The Cubs' move to end a 103-year-old curse is to use Ryan Dempster (15-12, 3.85 in 2010) as their Opening Day starter. Apparently Kevin Correia (10-10, 5.40) was starting for some other team. Oh shit, that team is us. My pick is still the Pirates.

Tomorrow it's Paul Maholm (9-15, 5.10) for the good and Carlos Zambrano (11-6, 3.33) for the bad. Zambrano may be the only ace pitcher in history to lose his starting job, lose his relieving job, get suspended, still have the best season of any pitcher on his team, and still not get the Opening Day start the next year. My pick is the Pirates.

Sunday, Ross Ohlendorf (1-11, 4.07) takes the ball for Love as Hate counters with Matt Garza (15-10, 3.91). In the game of love, one win is a good season. Not only that, but only one guy has ever graduated from Princeton without being a total dick, it is Ross Ohlendorf, Ohlendorf is the clear winner here, and my pick is the Pirates.

Your 2011 Pirates Offense

2011-03-29T07:00:00.002-04:00

With Opening Day three days away, the Pirates have decided on the 13 hitters who will be in uniform Friday in Chicago. Four of these roster spots were undecided entering spring training, and the fact that these guys won them gives hope to all the Jaramillos, Pearces, Rodriguezes and Bowkers of their lines of business. We've all known truck drivers who couldn't drive a truck and tax accountants who couldn't do taxes. It's heartwarming that we have those guys in baseball. It seems unimportant who goes north in April, but know that this means a lot to those players at the margins in Major League Baseball. Here's the breakdown:

Catchers
Starting catcher Chris Snyder (.207/.320/.376 in 2009) will start the season on the disabled list with back problems. The Pirates are spinning this as a minor injury - but lingering knee or and back issues are rarely resolved quickly.

The injury opens the door for Ryan Doumit (.251/.331/.406) to make his fourth consecutive Opening Day start. After a summer of unsuccessfully shopping their switch-hitting, defensively challeged catcher, some more regular playing time might be what the Pirates need to boost Doumit's trade value. Doumit has never failed to hit while healthy and he is healthy now. He gets a chance to move on from the disaster of 2009.

By default the backup is Jason Jaramillo (.149/.227/.207). Jaramillo is a reliable defender who simply can't hit enough to warrant a spot in the lineup more than once a week. Let's hope that Clint Hurdle doesn't give him more playing time than he merits.

First Basemen
Your everyday starter is Lyle Overbay (.249/.323/.433). No major league club has any business making Lyle Overbay their main offseason acquisition, but Overbay is a legitimate MLB first baseman which is more than could be said for anyone who manned the position for Pittsburgh last year. He's a solid middle of the order hitter against righthanders. Against southpaws, let's just hope this devolves into a platoon.

Steven Pearce (.276/.395/.414) made the team as a pinch hitter and will back up Overbay. Widely viewed as a disappointment at the MLB level, Pearce has actually torched lefthanded pitching to the tune of a .304/.372/.557 career batting line. He hit .286/.333/.408 this spring which was enough to win a job, given that realistically there weren't many good options. It's a perfect platoon situation - I'd rather not see if Overbay can learn to hit lefthanders at age 34.

Second Basemen
Native son Neil Walker (.296/.349/.462) returns as we all wonder whether he can repeat the success of his rookie year. Walker has gap power but needs to learn plate discipline to be a truly effective hitter year in and year out. Defensively, I think he showed enough tools to be an MLB average second baseman with continued improvement.

The backup here is Josh Rodriguez, a Rule V pick with no MLB experience who had a decent spring hitting .278/.381/.361. Count me happy to have seen Rodriguez get a meaningless hit in a meaningless game this weekend to cement his spot on the roster. A certain Post-Gazette writer has been spinning this as a controversial move, but it's obvious that the Pirates didn't drat Rodriguez first in the Rule V with aims of giving him back. In any event, Rodriguez isn't likely to get enough playing time for it to matter.

Third Basemen
This year's wild card, to me, is Pedro Alvarez (.256/.326/.461). He had a solid debut season, but more lies ahead. Pedro hit only 16 home runs in 95 games in 2010, and had 37 walks to go with 119 strikeouts. He still reminds me of Ryan Howard. It wouldn't shock me if he hits 35 home runs this year. It would shock me if he doesn't hit 25.

Rodriguez is the backup here, and he won't see much time. Even if Alvarez is injured, the Pirates will likely recall Andy Marte to play every day.

Shortstops
Back for another year as a starter is Ronny Cedeno (.256/.293/.382). No one knows how this happened. The less said about it the better. Rodriguez is the backup here too, and he merits more playing time at shortstop. I watched all of three innings of spring training, but it's hard to imagine Rodriguez is worse than Cedeno.

Outfielders
And here we are, the strength of this offense. Andrew McCutchen (.285/.365/.449) led the league last year in Being a Productive Pirate and is poised to break out with a 20/40 year out of the leadoff spot. We are all witnesses. Jose Tabata (.299/.346/.400) has PNC Park's huge left field in capable hands and barring injury will start over 150 games while hopefully translating a little of that doubles power into home runs. And in right we have a platoon of Garrett Jones (.247/.306/.414) and Matt Diaz (.250/.302/.438), two halves of a good player if I ever saw two halves of a productive player.

Winning the coveted 25th man job was John Bowker (.219/.281/.371). Bowker will start a game pretty much never but with any luck will have one of those all-important 100 game, 100 at bat seasons. A good lefthanded pinch hitter is a tremendous asset in the National League. Bowker personifies two of those three all-important adjectives, and who ever said a baseball player should be "good"? He rounds out a versatile and disappointing bench.

Pirates Break Camp

2011-03-28T17:15:00.003-04:00

Even though it's 38 degrees outside, it is warm and sunny in Pittsburgh today.

Sixty-two men left their offseason homes six weeks ago, traveling from Iowa and Montreal and Washington and Venezuela to a seemingly random Florida city along U.S. 41. While we continued our quotidian obligations of bitching about weather and the economy and referees, these men were busy bunting, taking grounders, breaking in gloves, playing meaningless games in places like Fort Myers or Kissimmee - and most importantly forming a team: the 2011 World Champion Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Grapefruit League results have long since ceased to interest much of anyone. Today's 4-3 loss to the Twins, the winning runs given up by a veteran of 3.2 major league innings, is no different. Spring training is for Anthony Claggetts and Starling Martes and fans who leave early to catch the early bird special at Shoney's. The Pirates closed the book today on that 100-level graduation requirement.

Twenty-five men broke camp today and headed north. This is the group that we will see 81 times this year from the upper deck above first base. This team will play nearly every day as cold April nights yield blazing hot summer days yield cold late September nights. On Friday all the impure sports, games decided by a flop in the lane or a flop at the blue line, careers and brains ruined for the sake of senseless violence, can take their rightful place in the order behind Baseball.

For the first time in six months, all the Pittsburgh Pirates will be in Pennsylvania tonight. There are two more meaningless games in South Philly, a flight to Chicago, then a real day game in Wrigley Friday. It's not a home opener, but it's a day game at the oldest park in the oldest league in baseball. Probable pitchers have been announced. It's on.

Pirates At Bat Songs For 2011

2011-03-24T15:31:00.006-04:00

With Opening Day a week away, a #1 draft pick coming up, and the trade deadline less than five months away, the Pirates can't afford to blow an important strategic decision. I was torn between suggesting different songs for each player and just suggesting Danzig's "Mother" for everyone...

Andrew McCutchen
Fugazi - Waiting Room

Jose Tabata
The Box Tops - The Letter

Neil Walker
Wiz Khalifa - Black and Yellow

Pedro Alvarez
Blessid Union of Souls - Light In Your Eyes

Lyle Overbay
Led Zeppelin - Immigrant Song

Garrett Jones
Public Enemy - He Got Game

Chris Snyder
DMX - Who We Be

Ronny Cedeno
R.E.M. - Shiny Happy People

Matt Diaz
Third Eye Blind - Semi-Charmed Life

Ryan Doumit
Presidents of the USA - Peaches

John Bowker
Paul Simon - You Can Call Me Al

Steven Pearce
Goo Goo Dolls - Black Balloon

Josh Rodriguez
The Who - Who Are You

Kevin Correia
KISS - Beth

Paul Maholm
Three 6 Mafia - Stay Fly

Ross Ohlendorf
Fleetwood Mac - Landslide

James McDonald
Sublime - April 29, 1992 (Miami)

Charlie Morton
Bob Dylan - Honey, Just Allow Me One More Chance

Olsen Disabled, Morton in Rotation

2011-03-21T23:08:00.004-04:00

The Pirates announced today that prospective fifth starter Scott Olsen will open the season on the disabled list - opening the door for Charlie Morton to "win" the job.

This decision was a real "Clint's Choice" anyway as these pitchers basically competed with each other to be the most hittable in the league. Batters hit .303/.360/.501 against Olsen and .303/.369/.462 against Morton over the past two seasons. George Brett hit .305/.369/.487 for his career so we are basically facing a lineup of nine George Bretts with either of those guys. Of course, George Brett is usually hammered now so that's what gives us hope for this 2011 WFC season.

Most of the reactions I have seen are positive, along the lines of, Charlie Morton is a great guy and deserves another chance to succeed. Actually I know a lot of guys who are great guys. None of them went 2-12 with a 7.57 ERA last season and none of them are in a major league starting rotation.

I posted on these pages that the Pirates needed to sign two legitimate starting pitchers in the offseason. Knowing we wouldn't get any real free agents, I suggested Kevin Correia and Rich Harden. Instead of Harden who is 55-34 with a 3.63 ERA in his career, because Pirates management knows more than me, we have in our rotation Charlie Morton, 11-29 with a 5.98. On the positive side, some girl I met a few times who seemed pretty nice likes Charlie Morton, is from near his hometown and says he is nice. What a way to do business as one of the 30 clubs in Major League Baseball.

Anthony Rendon Update: March 14

2011-03-14T19:00:00.000-04:00

Everyone knows that Anthony Rendon will be the Pirates' first overall pick in June. WFC Blog scouts report that he's half Ty Cobb, half Jesse Owens, and half Winston Churchill, and that's a legit #2 pick and defensible at #1.

A third baseman by trade, Rendon has DHed all year because of elbow problems. Since there's not enough pressure put on gifted athletes who are under 21, I'm keeping you updated each day.

March 11: Long Beach State 2, #15 Rice 1
Rice lost another disappointing decision to fall to 9-7. Anthony Rendon was no help as he went 0-for-4 and failed to score or drive in a run. Better luck next time.

March 12: Cal 7, #15 Rice 6
With Rice already up 5-1, Rendon singled in the fifth, stole second, and scored a run. But the Owls ended up losing in 15 innings with Rendon going just 1-for-6 with a walk, three strikeouts, and one run scored.

March 13: #15 Rice 2, UC Santa Barbara 1
With their backs against the wall, Rice finally came through with a win to improve to 10-8. Chase McDowell (2-1) went the distance but received little help from the Pirates' #1 pick. Rendon went 2-for-5 with a double but failed to score or drive in a run.

Weekend Statistics
3 games, 3-16, 1 2B, 2 R, 1 BB, 3 K

Season Statistics
15 games, .358/.500/.627, 19 R, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 17 BB, 10 K

Next Games
Wednesday vs. Dallas Baptist, 6:30 p.m.
Friday vs. Louisiana Tech, 6:30 p.m.
Saturday vs. Louisiana Tech, 2 p.m.
Sunday vs. Louisiana Tech, 1 p.m.

My Awful & Infrequent Contributions

2011-03-13T10:18:00.003-04:00

Greetings to all of you long suffering Pirates fans. I will be joining B.S. during the championship run for 2011 as a contributing writer for this blog. I come to you as an occasional owner/writer of two other Pirates blogs; Sitting in the North Shore Notch and Ohlie's Orange Army. I must say, it was an honor when B.S. gave me writing privileges for the Pirates WFC blog. This opportunity will provide me a forum for expressing my baseball thoughts, while not having to worry about fulfilling full-time blogger duties.

I must admit I don't know how often I will be on here or what I will be writing about. However, one of the contributions I hope to be able to make to this blog will be the MLB The Show game day predictions. These game predictions were popular features on my previous blog and provided a pretty accurate account of how the first week of the season went.

So with that being said, and not much really being said at all, Let's Go Bucs.

2011 Position Preview: Relief Pitchers

2011-03-11T07:00:00.000-05:00

Clint Hurdle made his first major move as manager when he named Joel Hanrahan the closer at the beginning of spring training. It's the same move I advocated the day after the Octavio Dotel trade so obviously I support the decision. Hanrahan's two pitch arsenal plays well in a one inning role, while Evan Meek is better suited for a more versatile role including multiple inning appearances. I also applaud Hurdle for making the move when he did; now both pitchers can concentrate on getting ready for the season without worrying about their roles. Position battles should be left to players who aren't core components on the team.

Hanrahan is a prototypical two-pitch closer - and it's a formidable one-two punch. His 96 mph heater is the fastest on the Pittsburgh staff, and his strikeout pitch - a hard-breaking 85 mph slider - is flat out unhittable when he keeps it down. Joel's 2010 season was a huge step forward and certainly merits a closing role.

2008: 84 IP, 6-3, 3.95, 1.36 WHIP, 9.9 K/9
2009: 64 IP, 1-4, 4.78, 1.67 WHIP, 10.1 K/9
2010: 70 IP, 4-1, 3.62, 1.21 WHIP, 12.9 K/9

Hanrahan's career was floundering in Washington, making him a throw-in in the Nyjer Morgan deal. He had a 7.71 ERA at the time of the trade in June 2009, but since then has compiled a 3.03 ERA and 12.2 K/9 in 102 appearances.

Last offseason, Joel added over a full mile per hour to his fastball. I'm not expecting further improvement for his age 29 season, but improvement is not necessary for a man who's already one of the most unhittable relievers in the league. He was a bit unlucky in ERA in 2010 so I'd expect that to come down to around 3.25, with a 1.20 WHIP and 12 K/9 in 70 innings.

Set-Up Man: Evan Meek
Evan added two miles per hour to his fastball last year with All-Star results. While Hanrahan's 96 mph fastball is straight gas, Meek now throws his at 95 mph with devastating movement. Evan also features a 93 mph cutter, an 84 mph slider, and an 81 mph curve. He was always unhittable, but 2010 was the year he finally cut his walk rate to the "effectively wild" range.

2008: 13 IP, 0-1, 6.92, 1.77 WHIP, 4.8 K/9
2009: 47 IP, 1-1, 3.45, 1.34 WHIP, 8.0 K/9
2010: 80 IP, 5-4, 2.14, 1.05 WHIP, 7.9 K/9

2010 was probably a career year, but Evan Meek is a true relief ace with four above average pitches. With his arsenal, he's the type of guy who in the 1970s would have thrown 130 innings out of the bullpen and made a couple of spot starts. I do have a pretty sweet brown, tan, light tan and white shirt, but it doesn't have a big collar which means it's 2011 and we'll have to settle for 75 innings, a 2.90 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and 8 K/9.

Middle Reliever: Chris Resop
This is where things get worrisome to some fans. In addition to Meek and Hanrahan, last year's pre-trade deadline Pirates bullpen featured three accomplished and reliable veterans in Octavio Dotel, Javier Lopez and D.J. Carrasco. Apart from his top two guys this year, Clint Hurdle will be forced to rely on a combination of journeymen, unproven minor leaguers, and failed starters.

The best of that bunch is Chris Resop. He's a lock to make the team and has strikeout stuff, so I'm penciling him in as the seventh inning set-up man. He throws a 94 mph fastball three-quarters of the time and also features a 78 mph curveball that he needs to command better. He has a changeup that he may throw once an inning. He had a 2.09 ERA last year as an AAA starter before the Braves brought him up, used him for one poor outing, and then tried to sneak him through waivers. The Pirates pounced with good results.

2008: 18 IP, 0-1, 5.89, 1.42 WHIP, 6.4 K/9
2010: 21 IP, 0-0, 3.86, 1.33 WHIP, 11.1 K/9

His 2010 stats are skewed by the bad game in Atlanta - after the Pirates added him, Resop had a 1.89 ERA. But 19 good innings notwithstanding, Resop will remain a question mark until he can duplicate that success. It's hard to believe he'll hold batters to a .156 average as he did last season. That being said, he certainly deserves a shot. This is a shot in the dark but I'd be happy with 60 innings, a 4.50 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 8 K/9.

Lefty Specialist: Joe Beimel
Elk County's fourth favorite son pitched at Duquesne, started his career with the Pirates, and now returns as the bullpen's elder statesman. Beimel wasn't that effective from 2001-05, but like many crafty lefthanders, Joe figured things out comparatively late in his career. Since 2006 he has averaged over 70 appearances a year for the past five seasons with a 3.20 ERA.

Last year, Beimel was a true specialist as he held lefthanded hitters to a .221/.275/.379 batting line while righthanders torched him to the tune of .329/.388/.574. He averages well under an inning per appearance, and in six postseason appearances has faced a total of seven batters.

2008: 49 IP, 5-1, 2.02, 1.45 WHIP, 5.9 K/9
2009: 55 IP, 1-6, 3.58, 1.37 WHIP, 5.7 K/9
2010: 45 IP, 1-2, 3.40, 1.36 WHIP, 4.2 K/9

Beimel will be 34, but this type of pitcher doesn't usually regress much at that age. He should also benefit from a return to sea level after a year and a half with the Rockies. If he's the only lefty in Clint Hurdle's bullpen, I wouldn't be surprised to see Joe in 81 games. I'd count on him for 50 innings, a 3.60 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 5 K/9.

Long Relievers
I'll cover the battle for the last bullpen spot later, but there are two guys left who are almost certain to make the team.

Recalled after the bullpen was decimated by late July trades, Daniel McCutchen put together a great month of August last year. In ten games including a spot start, he compiled a 1.00 ERA in 18 innings. Then it was back to old ways - an 8.04 ERA in the final month which brought his season mark up to 6.12. McCutchen's 90 mph straight fastball is batting practice, so he needs to make either his split-fingered fastball or slider into an out pitch to be better than an AAA guy. Nevertheless, there aren't many obstacles to his making this staff. He'll start out in a role similar to D.J. Carrasco's a year ago, but I'd be shocked if he keeps his ERA under 5.00. I expect him to throw 40 innings with a 5.80 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and 5 K/9 before ending up back in Indianapolis.

Jeff Karstens threw 123 much-needed innings last year with a 4.92 ERA. He showed excellent control which offset the fact that he allowed batters to hit .300 against him. A slow curveball is the only above average pitch of Karstens' four, but he's been smart enough thus far to at least eat innings without getting lit up. And an innings eater out of the bullpen is a near necessity in the likely event that Charlie Morton is in the starting rotation. Unlike McCutchen, I think Karstens will stick the whole year and end up with some starts too. I'd expect 110 innings with a 5.00 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 5.5 K/9.

Anthony Rendon Update: March 10

2011-03-10T21:00:00.008-05:00

Nobody with the Pirates wants to say it, but obviously Anthony Rendon will be the first overall pick in June. My latest scouting reports say that he's half Honus Wagner, half Bobby Orr, and half Mohandas Gandhi, and that's not a bad draft pick.

Rendon is a third baseman but he's mostly DHed this year due to injury. In order to further the goal of fueling hype and putting unnecessary pressure on young people, here's today's update on his season.

March 8: Sam Houston State 7, Rice 0
Starting again at DH, Rendon walked in the first and was stranded. He struck out twice and flied out once the rest of the way for an 0-for-3 day. It was a bad day for the powerhouse Rice team too. Playing as an unranked team for the first time, they never were in this game and fell to 8-6 on the seaosn.

March 9: Rice 10, Florida International 2
Apparently football is not the only FIU Golden Panthers program which exists only to lose non-conference games over 1,000 miles from home. Couldn't this be a two game series once we've flown from Miami to Houston? Anyway, with the Owls already leading 4-0, Rendon cracked a bases loaded triple. He scored on the play but was not credited with an inside the park home run as the scorer charged FIU shortstop Garrett Wittels with an error instead. Rendon finished 1-for-3 with two walks, two runs scored and three RBI.

Week's Statistics
2 games, 1-6, 1 3B, 2 R, 3 RBI, 3 BB, 2 K

Season Statistics
15 games, .404/.557/.731, 17 R, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 16 BB, 7 K

Next Games
Cal Tournament at AT&T Park San Francisco
Friday, vs. Long Beach State, 2 p.m. EST
Saturday, vs. Cal, 10 p.m. EST
Sunday, vs. UC Santa Barbara, 3:30 p.m. EST

The Penguins Effect

2011-03-08T19:00:00.006-05:00

I had lived in four different states and visited Pittsburgh five or six times before moving here, so I figured not much would surprise me. As it turns out, I was unprepared for only one aspect of life in the Steel City.

You see, in most cities, sitting alone at home watching a hockey game is kind of - I don't know - something you do when you have nothing to do that night. It's certainly not a bad night, we appreciate the work our forefathers did to make it possible, but it's not something you fucking plan around.

Well, Pittsburgh has proven all those cities wrong. If watching a preseason game against the Islanders is worthy of turning down a date with a model, then clearly a regular season game against the Capitals beats guaranteed sex with a supermodel. And of course, seeing a first round playoff game on the Vs. network trumps a three-way with a model and a supermodel. Needless to say, it is hard to give away Pirates tickets when any of this stuff is going on.

I decided to quantify this effect by comparing Pirates attendance for the last three years when there is and isn't a Penguins game on TV. And here are your results:There you have it. When the Penguins are playing, the Pirates drew around 2,400 fewer fans a game in 2008 and 2009 and more than 7,000 fewer in 2010. And those numbers are based on tickets sold. Actual attendance takes even more of a hit. People are simply much less likely to use their Pirates tickets when it's possible to see the Mike Rupp line kill 40 seconds of game time.

All this adds up to yet another positive for the 2011 Pirates. The Penguins have riveting games against the Islanders and Thrashers during the Pirates' opening series, but even a drunk guy at Jack's wearing a Malkin Winter Classic jersey - vintage 2008! - is predicting a first round exit for our hockey club. And that should lead to a great atmosphere at PNC Park in this, our 2011 World Championship baseball season.

Anthony Rendon Update: March 7

2011-03-07T07:00:00.003-05:00

The Pirates are drafting Anthony Rendon first overall in June, and they really earned it. Personally I have almost never felt as tired as I did after the 20-0 loss on April 22. And there were 147 more games to go.

I'm not big on scouting reports, but Rendon is half Mike Schmidt, half Jim Thorpe, and half John Lennon, and that's a pretty good draft pick. Because the main purpose of the Internet is fueling hype and putting unnecessary pressure on young people, I decided to start posting updates on Rendon's season every time Pittsburgh's Savior plays.

March 4: #15 Rice 8, Kentucky 7
In the first game of a tournament at Houston's Minute Maid Park, Rendon went 3-for-5 with a double, two runs scored and an RBI. He started at designated hitter but moved to first base for the final two innings where he flawlessly handled two chances. It was Rendon's first action in the field; he had been the DH so far this season because of a shoulder injury.

March 5: #15 Rice 1, #9 Texas A&M 0
Nothing doing here, as Rendon was the DH, went 0-for-2, and failed to score or drive in a run. Texas righthander Michael Wacha hit Rendon with a pitch in his first two times at bat.

March 6: Baylor 12, #15 Rice 8
Rendon started at DH again in the final game of the weekend. He went 2-for-4 with a strikeout, a double, and most importantly his third home run of the year. He could have done more damage but was intentionally walked twice. Rendon moved to first base for the tenth inning, flawlessly handling one chance, but the Owls lost on a walk-off grand slam.

Weekend Statistics
3 games, 5-11, 2 2B, HR, 3 R, 2 RBI, 2 BB, K

Season Statistics
13 games, .435/.574/.761, 15 R, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 13 BB, 5 K

Next Games
Tuesday, home vs. Sam Houston State
Wednesday, home vs. Florida International

2011 Position Preview: Starting Pitchers

2011-03-06T19:48:00.001-05:00

The Pirates made one of the two moves I wanted to bolster their starting staff this season when they signed Kevin Correia to a two year, $8 million contract. Correia would be a back end starter almost anywhere else, but based on the spring rotation I expect him to take the Wrigley Field mound on Opening Day, April 1.

Correia is a righthander whose best pitches are a 90 mph fastball with movement and an 85 mph slider. He also mixes in a cutter, a slow curveball and a changeup. After a few inconsistent years in a swingman role, Correia had a breakout season in 2009. Last year he was hurt by the home run and posted the highest ERA of all the Padres' starters.

2008: 110 IP, 3-8, 6.05, 1.71 WHIP, 5.4 K/9
2009: 198 IP, 12-11, 3.91, 1.30 WHIP, 6.5 K/9
2010: 145 IP, 10-10, 5.40, 1.49 WHIP, 7.1 K/9

While his ERA looked bad last year, I'm not too concerned for a few reasons. Correia exceeded his career high in innings by 53 in 2009 while throwing 30% sliders. A huge jump in innings with a high percentage of sliders almost always leads to fatigue the following year. Sure enough, last year Correia had respectable stats (10-7, 4.63) in mid-August before apparently hitting a wall. One year later and at only 30 years old, Correia's arm should be more rested - especially since he threw only 15% sliders last year.

Correia's peripherals are encouraging too. In 2010, he posted his highest ever strikeout rate and also his highest ever ground ball rate, 49%. That ground ball rate makes his home run rate of 1.24 per nine innings look like bad luck. He'll also do better this year if he relies more on the slider, his best pitch. This year I'm expecting Correia to bounce back with a 4.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 7 K/9 over 190 innings.

#2 Starter: Paul Maholm
The Pirates' second longest tenured player, Maholm will hope to rebound from a very disappointing year. He had a 4.03 ERA after shutting out the Astros on three hits in July, then was rocked for a 6.81 ERA the rest of the season. I think he'll be the #2 starter this year, which slots him to pitch the home opener on Thursday, April 7.

2008: 206 IP, 9-9, 3.71, 1.28 WHIP, 6.1 K/9
2009: 195 IP, 8-9, 4.44, 1.44 WHIP, 5.5 K/9
2010: 185 IP, 9-15, 5.10, 1.57 WHIP, 5 K/9

I want to see Maholm succeed as much as anyone, but his falling strikeout numbers are cause for concern. While the lefthander did well with his slider and curveball, his 88 mph fastball looked like batting practice to MLB hitters in 2010. Batters hit .303/.360/.452 against Maholm on the year. Even if he can keep home run totals low, the odds of Maholm putting up a sub-4.00 ERA as he did in 2008 look slim to me. In 2011 I'm expecting a 4.90 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 5 K/9 over 190 innings.

#3 Starter: James McDonald
After coming to Pittsburgh in the Octavio Dotel deal, McDonald was nothing short of a revelation. He relied mainly on a 92 mph fastball which was easily the best on the starting staff, but his out pitch was a 77 mph curveball that routinely made accomplished hitters look stupid. McDonald had a 3.52 ERA for the Pirates - 2.31 in September - and accomplished the rare feat of increasing his strikeout rate despite moving from the bullpen to starting.

2008: 6 IP, 0-0, 0.00, 1.00 WHIP, 3 K/9
2009: 63 IP, 5-5, 4.00, 1.38 WHIP, 7.7 K/9
2010: 72 IP, 4-6, 4.02, 1.30 WHIP, 8.5 K/9

This season, I'm expecting McDonald to again be the Pirates' best pitcher. He's 26 and unlike most pitchers coming off breakout years, should continue to be durable since he doesn't use a slider and has never thrown more than 142 innings in a season. I'm counting on 175 innings with a 3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 8.3 K/9.

#4 Starter: Ross Ohlendorf
My associate McMillen got together a group of people last year to wear orange in the bleachers for Ohlendorf's starts in honor of his alma mater, Princeton. At the first game the group was me with an orange shirt in section 135, McMillen with an orange shirt in 138, and zero other people who even happened to be wearing orange. It was a real microcosm of Ross's season, which was undoubtedly the best ever for a starter with just one win.

2008: 63 IP, 1-4, 6.46, 1.87 WHIP, 7 K/9
2009: 177 IP, 11-10, 3.92, 1.23 WHIP, 6 K/9
2010: 108 IP, 1-11, 4.07, 1.39 WHIP, 6.6 K/9

Despite the one win season, Ohlendorf pitched well enough that he's now an established major league starter rather than a one year wonder. At 28, he shouldn't lose anything from his 91 mph fastball and can continue to improve his excellent slider. I expect Ross Ohlendorf to be effective again and healthy this year: a 3.90 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 6.5 K/9 in 175 innings.

There are several candidates for the fifth starter spot, so I'll save those for another day. I have confidence in three of Pittsburgh's top four starters, but we'll need Paul Maholm to return to form if the Pirates are to have a good rotation this season.

The 25th Man

2011-03-05T20:06:00.005-05:00

One of the least interesting battles during any spring training is for the final position player spot on the roster. This is a guy who will barely play and usually will be optioned out by May. As a reliable source of uninteresting Pirates-related news, I figured I would cover this battle.I consider 12 position players locks to make the roster: catchers Ryan Doumit and Chris Snyder; infielders Pedro Alvarez, Garrett Atkins, Ronny Cedeno, Lyle Overbay, Josh Rodriguez, and Neil Walker; and outfielders Matt Diaz, Garrett Jones, Andrew McCutchen and Jose Tabata. With the starting pitching situation what it is, the Pirates certainly will carry seven relievers. So there's one position player spot left on the roster.

The coaches are saying Rodriguez still has to make the team, but rest assured the Pirates aren't shipping their #1 Rule V pick back to Cleveland at the end of spring training. Atkins likewise is supposedly in competition for a spot, but he's a Clint Hurdle guy from their years in Colorado and I'd be shocked if he doesn't go north with the MLB team.

It's too early to evaluate spring training stats, and they're largely meaningless even over the full month. But for better or for worse, decisions like this are made based on spring performance. Here are the candidates to watch for that 25th man spot:

OF John Bowker is probably the most likely player to get this spot simply because he's out of options. He hit .232/.312/.391 in 77 plate appearances after coming over from the Giants last year - not good by any means, but better than most of the guys on this list could muster. Bowker also would provide a lefthanded bat off the bench - the only one on days when both Doumit and Jones are in the starting lineup. I'm not saying Bowker is the best choice, but teams will usually take the player who is out of options if the roster spot is even in question. I don't see the Pirates waiving Bowker so soon after trading for him.

1B Steven Pearce is another front runner. He'll be 28 this year so there's no need for more seasoning. He also hit well last year, .276/.395/.414, albeit in only 38 plate appearances. Personally I would be fine with Pearce on the team as a platoon partner for Overbay. However, I see no use for Pearce when Overbay is the everyday starter and Atkins, Jones and Diaz are all also able to play first base.

3B Josh Fields isn't a great defender, but has absolutely murdered lefthanded pitchers in his career with a .293/.357/.600 slash line. He would be a great weapon off the bench, particularly since having lefthanders Jones, Alvarez, and Overbay in the middle of the lineup is sure to summon lefthanders out of opposing bullpens. However, Fields is here on a minor league deal and can be easily stashed at Indianapolis.

C Jason Jaramillo would be my choice. He didn't hit at all (.149/.227/.207) last year, but with backups already covered at every position I think Jaramillo gives the greatest roster flexibility. With another catcher on board, Clint Hurdle can use his best pinch hitter, Ryan Doumit, in any situation without worrying about a possible catcher injury. Chris Snyder is also the only player in the everyday lineup who would require a pinch runner in the late innings, so it helps to have a good defensive catcher to come off the bench in that likely event. Jaramillo can also come in for Ryan Doumit as a defensive substitute when Snyder has the day off.

3B Andy Marte fields well at third base and hits well enough against lefties (.253/.328/.380) to give Pedro Alvarez an occasional rest. He could be a defensive replacement for Alvarez in the late innings as well. However, I think the Pirates will let Alvarez sink or swim in all situations. Marte is here on a minor league deal for a reason.

SS Pedro Ciriaco is a great fielder and had a single, double and a triple in six at bats last fall. I think he would be the first choice to play every day if Neil Walker or Ronny Cedeno (O hope of hopes) go down with injuries. However, he has options left, could use some more minor leage at bats, and probably is redundant with Rodriguez already on the roster.

2011 Position Preview: Shortstop

2011-03-04T07:00:00.007-05:00

Some idiot* decided in 2006 that Ronny Cedeno was a Starting Shortstop, and I guess there's no way to shed that label. He's your starter once again in 2011. Cedeno will lose playing time at some point due to some combination of being a poor contact hitter, being a poor power hitter, having poor plate discipline, and fielding poorly. Nonetheless, he'll still start somewhere around the 132 games he started in 2010.

*This is a literary technique. I act like based on the decision this was an non-specific idiot. Wrong. It's a specific idiot and it's Dusty Baker.

The best source for Ronny Cedeno jokes is @cryingbaseball's excellent Twitter feed. The second best source is watching Ronny Cedeno play.

2008: 99 games, .269/.328/.352, 36 Runs, 2 HR, 28 RBI, 4 SB
2009: 105 games, .208/.256/.337, 32 Runs, 10 HR, 38 RBI, 5 SB
2010: 139 games, .256/.293/.382, 42 Runs, 8 HR, 38 RBI, 12 SB

Interestingly enough, 2010 was Cedeno's best year yet. There's nothing more to say about him. He's 28 so he'll probably perform at the same level again. So my prediction is .256/.293/.382, 42 runs, 8 homers, 38 RBI and 12 steals.

Backup: Josh Rodriguez
I guess every Rodriguez gets a "Rod" nickname now, so I can report that "J-Rod" is certainly making this team. The Pirates didn't waste their first pick in the Rule V draft on him for no reason, and they have to offer him back to Cleveland if he doesn't make the team.

Rodriguez is capable of playing second base, third base, and shortstop, and has never played in the major leagues. However, he had a great season at the plate in the minors last year hitting .317/.405/.476 at Akron and then .293/.372/.486 at Columbus. Those are better 2010 minor league numbers than say, Brandon Moss, who hit well enough that everyone was clamoring for him to play in Pittsburgh in a corner outfield spot.

Rodriguez will be 26 this year, has had success hitting in the minors, and is a solid fielder at all three infield positions. The bar to be an MLB backup middle infielder is not high, and he clears it easily. He also could see action as a pinch runner for Chris Snyder. I expect him to get around 150 at bats and hit a respectable .250/.320/.370, a.k.a. better than Ronny Cedeno, with 15 runs and RBI, three home runs and five or six steals.

2011 Position Preview: Catcher

2011-03-03T07:00:00.004-05:00

Although he didn't hit at all after joining the Pirates last season, Chris Snyder either showed enough on defense to keep the job, or there was just no one else to take the job. Either way, Snyder returns this year with a chance at a full season as the starter.

He may not be interesting, but I think Snyder is one of the most important hitters in the lineup. It's important for a National League lineup to go seven deep, and I'm not expecting anything from Ronny Cedeno. If Snyder can match the numbers he put up in his better seasons, he'll be a major benefit to the offense.

2008: 115 games, .237/.348/.452, 47 Runs, 16 HR, 64 RBI
2009: 61 games, .200/.333/.352, 20 Runs, 6 HR, 22 RBI
2010: 105 games, .207/.320/.376, 34 Runs, 15 HR, 48 RBI

After compiling numbers of .251/.346/.438 from 2006-08, great for a catcher, Snyder's offense has completely fallen off for the past two seasons. He's set to earn $5.75 million and is only 30, so the Pirates have little choice but to play him and hope he regains his earlier form at the plate. Snyder's defense has always been major league average, which was a revelation in Pittsburgh.

The silver lining offensively is Snyder's walk rate. He's walked in between 14 and 16 percent of his plate appearances since 2008, which is huge for a player who hits for a low average. Snyder is a reliable 15 home run hitter with regular playing time, so he won't hurt the offense much if he continues to be selective at the plate. I'm counting on 400 at bats and a line of .220/.340/.380 with 40 runs, 15 homers, 55 RBI, and an eighth consecutive year of zero steals.

Backup: Ryan Doumit
The Opening Day catcher for the past three years, Ryan Doumit enters 2011 as a backup who is also on the trading block. Despite Doumit's above average offense for his position, the Pirates have yet to find a taker for his $5.1 million contract. So Doumit will open 2011 as the Pirates' backup catcher and top pinch hitter.

2008: 116 games, .318/.357/.501, 71 Runs, 15 HR, 69 RBI, 2 SB
2009: 75 games, .250/.299/.414, 31 Runs, 10 HR, 38 RBI, 4 SB
2010: 124 games, .251/.331/.406, 42 runs, 13 HR, 45 RBI, 1 SB

A lot has been made of the idea that Doumit should be a designated hitter, but he's really not a good enough hitter to do that. He's a good enough hitter to be the best hitting backup catcher in baseball. He's also a defensive liability, but what backup catcher is perfect? I'm fine with keeping him for 2011 if no team wants his contract.

Doumit should get only about 250 at bats in his initial role, catching twice a week and pinch hitting. However, as it did late in 2010, his playing time could increase into a 50/50 timeshare if Snyder doesn't hit. In either event, I think he'll benefit at the plate by not catching every day. I expect Doumit to hit .260/.330/.440 with 30 runs, 10 homers, 40 RBI and three steals.

2011 Position Preview: Right Field

2011-03-02T17:41:00.003-05:00

Garrett Jones returns this year and with the first base experiment apparently over, should see most of his playing time in right field. He won't technically be an everyday player to start the seaosn, but he'll start against all righthanded pitchers which will give him at least 110 starts if he stays healthy.

Jones was a revelation in 2009, then trailed off after a strong start last year to finish with pretty mediocre numbers. He had some bad luck in 2010 and wasn't really used in the right manner, so his true talent lies somewhere in the middle.

2009: 82 games, .293/.372/.567, 45 Runs, 21 HR, 44 RBI, 10 SB
2010: 158 games, .247/.306/.414, 64 runs, 21 HR, 86 RBI, 7 SB

Garrett's unimpressive numbers last year are a result of 230 plate appearances against lefthanded pitching in which he hit .220/.261/.360. No one has questioned his ability to hit righthanders, so I expect his rate stats to rebound considerably. He also hit much better as a right fielder last year than while he was also struggling to learn first base at the big league level.

2009 unquestionably was a career year, but I'm expecting Jones to rebound somewhat in 2011. In around 400 at bats I expect him to hit .270/.340/.460 with 50 runs, 15 home runs, 65 RBI and nine steals.

Platoon Partner: Matt Diaz
The Pirates brought in Matt Diaz on a two year, $4.25 million deal. He'll start in right field against lefthanders. He'll also be the primary backup to Jose Tabata and Andrew McCutchen - Diaz won't play center field but Tabata will shift over when McCutchen gets a rare day off. Diaz has been inconsistent in recent years but certainly has the ability to be an effective platoon player.

2008: 43 games, .244/.264/.304, 9 Runs, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 4 SB
2009: 125 games, .313/.390/.488, 56 Runs, 13 HR, 58 RBI, 12 SB
2010: 84 games, .250/.302/.438, 27 Runs, 7 HR, 31 RBI, 3 SB

Diaz lost 2008 to a knee injury, then had problems with his right thumb in 2009 and 2010. He still compiled a career year in '09 and then hit .285/.335/.530 for the rest of the season after returning from the thumb injury in June 2010. If he can stay healthy for the Pirates, he's a great bat to have on the roster. For his career he's hit an unreal .335/.373/.533 against lefthanders.

Diaz will get over 300 at bats if healthy, but I'm going to be more realistic and count on 250. I expect him to hit around .280/.330/.490 with 30 runs, 9 homers, 36 RBI and four steals.

2011 Position Preview: First Base

2011-03-01T15:51:00.005-05:00

Here you have it, the big free agent acquisition to upgrade the Pirates lineup: Lyle Overbay. Signed for one year and $5 million, Overbay if nothing else is a legitimate major league first baseman. He's not a star, but this is a far cry from running Jeff Clement out there on Opening Day.

Of course, Overbay should be a platoon first baseman. He was Toronto's regular first baseman last year, when he proved once again that he can't hit lefthanded pitching (.222/.295/.405 in 2010, .259/.308/.402 career). The Pirates nevertheless seem determined to start him every day, probably because they need his above average defense to compensate for their infielders' wild arms. He'll do a solid job overall.

2008: 158 games, .270/.358/.419, 74 Runs, 15 HR, 69 RBI, 1 SB
2009: 132 games, .265/.372/.466, 57 Runs, 16 HR, 64 RBI
2010: 154 games, .243/.329/.433, 75 Runs, 20 HR, 67 RBI, 1 SB

Overbay was in a strict platoon in 2009, so as you see, that year his overall hitting numbers were a lot better. I would like to see Steven Pearce or Garrett Atkins in a platoon here and I expect Overbay to lose playing time at some point. However, Overbay is pretty established and shouldn't really hit differently than he hit in Toronto. Figure on .255/.340/.430 with 55 runs, 17 homers, and 70 RBI.

Backup: Garrett Atkins
Atkins is battling Steven Pearce for this roster spot. I expect Atkins to win it since he was a four year starter for Clint Hurdle in Colorado. Unlike Pearce, Atkins also can play third base, although Atkins should get most of his playing time at first with Pedro Alvarez entrenched across the diamond.

2008: 155 games, .286/.328/.452, 86 Runs, 21 HR, 99 RBI, 1 SB
2009: 128 games, .226/.308/.342, 37 Runs, 9 HR, 48 RBI
2010: 44 games, .214/.276/.286, 5 Rubs, 1 HR, 9 RBI

An elite third baseman in 2006 and '07, Atkins' performance has been in free fall ever since. The Orioles released him in early July last year, opting to eat half of his $4 million contract, and Atkins couldn't catch on with another team.

Despite these struggles, Atkins is only 31 and is reunited with his former manager/hitting instructor. Under Hurdle, Atkins drove in 419 runs from 2005-08. I think he'll be a decent bench bat who ends the season as a platoon partner for Overbay. Figure on .250/.320/.420 in around 150 at bats.

2011 Position Preview: Third Base

2011-02-28T07:00:00.001-05:00

I have rarely felt more excitement at PNC Park than the atmosphere for Pedro Alvarez's first game. Tabata and Walker are nice players, but Pedro Alvarez is the potential saviour - a bat with 40 home run potential. Alvarez will obviously be your everyday third baseman and cleanup hitter in 2011.

The last major prospect to be called up from Indianapolis last year, Pedro started 94 of 98 games after his recall. Initially, he hit poorly but fielded well. But he soon became the power-hitting, iron-gloved Pedro that we expected.

2010: 95 games, .256/.326/.461, 42 Runs, 16 HR, 64 RBI, 0 SB

Typical of a young lefthanded hitter, at age 23 Alvarez struggled against lefthanded pitching (.228/.302/.342). But his 16 home runs came in bunches that remind me of another player: Ryan Howard. The breakdown was seven home runs in 14 games from July 3-21, three in four games from Aug. 4-7, a stray homer Sept. 5, and five in 10 days from Sept. 22-Oct. 1. Once Alvarez learns to avoid extended slumps, he'll be a legitimate cleanup hitter on a championship team - that championship team being the 2011 Pirates.

The strikeout issues will always be there of course. I'm actually fine with strikeouts from a player who walks a lot, but last year Alvarez struck out 119 times and drew only 37 walks. Counting AAA he had 187 strikeouts. But counting AAA he also had 29 home runs and 117 RBI at age 23. That's an exciting young power hitter and one who already is looking like a great pick at #2 overall in 2008.

In 2011, I'm not shy about predicting a big season for Alvarez. Something like .260/.340/.490, 75 runs, 30 home runs, 100 RBI and a couple of steals. With the decreased offensive levels around baseball, that would make Alvarez one of the ten best power hitters in the National League.

2011 Position Preview: Second Base

2011-02-27T13:24:00.003-05:00

Neil Walker was the Pirates' most pleasant surprise of 2010. Written off as a failed prospect, Walker had never really proven he could hit even AAA pitching. Last year he not only hit big league pitching but, just as impressively, learned second base at the major league level after Akinori Iwamura proved to be a bust.

Last year, Walker played in all 110 Pirates games he was available for, starting 104. He'll play every day again, which is a good thing if he can repeat or improve upon his 2010 performance, which earned him fifth place in Rookie of the Year voting.

2010: 110 Games, .296/.349/.462, 57 Runs, 12 HR, 66 RBI, 2 SB

This will be a telling year for Neil Walker as we see whether 2010 was a breakout season or simply a career year. He's 25 so of course there's room for improvement, but I think most fans would be happy with the same performance again at the plate. Not many teams have a second baseman who can hit 44 extra base hits in 110 games.

This year Walker should improve on his defense, which was respectable but below average in his first full season at second base. I also would like to see him run more on the bases - he has good speed and stole 10 bases through late May at Indianapolis, then swiped only two for the Pirates. On offense I'd be happy with a bit more plate discipline even with a slight falloff in extra base hits.

In 2011 I am looking for Walker to prove 2010 wasn't a fluke and cement his status as an above average everyday middle infielder. I'm also anticipating an injury of two weeks to a month, so I'd be happy with .280/.345/.440, 75 Runs, 14 HR, 70 RBI, and 7 steals.

2011 Position Preview: Left Field

2011-02-26T07:00:00.006-05:00

After he was called up from Indianapolis in June, Jose Tabata started 102 of the 104 remaining games for the Pirates. Barring injury he'll be in left field virtually every day again in 2011.

In his age 21 season, Tabata proved he can hit major league pitching and play a great left field. That earned him a seventh place finish in Rookie of the Year voting. He needs to work on plate discipline, and it would be nice if he developed a bit more power. Still, it was a very impressive debut for one of the better prospects we've seen in recent years.

2010: 102 games, .299/.346/.400, 61 Runs, 4 HR, 35 RBI, 19 SB

Those are fourth outfielder numbers for a player in his prime, but they're absolutely great for a 21-year-old. I'm not sure Tabata will be a lot better in 2011 - there's almost always a continuing adjustment period in the second year - but Tabata has hit at every level of the minor leagues so I don't see why he can't put up similar numbers over a full season. I am also expecting a bit of development in power. Between AAA and MLB he had 47 extra base hits last year, only seven of which were home runs.

For 2011 I am looking for Tabata to hit .290/.350/.420 with 100 runs, 9 home runs, 55 RBI, and 35 steals. That's a good #2 hitter and a great age 22 season.

2011 Position Preview: Center Field

2011-02-25T02:08:00.010-05:00

Andrew McCutchen is your center fielder, for better or for worse. By the way, it's better. You need a legitimate superstar to win a championship, and McCutchen is it for Pittsburgh. It's invaluable to have his name at the top of your lineup every day, and his glove anchoring your outfield defense.

A lot of people who play fantasy baseball are saying McCutchen will get overdrafted. He won't. He's a deserving second or third round pick. Let's look at what he can do:

2009: 108 games, .286/.365/.471, 74 Runs, 12 HR, 54 RBI, 22 SB
2010: 154 games, .286/.365/.449, 94 Runs, 16 HR, 56 RBI, 33 SB

McCutchen got hurt repeatedly last year and still missed only eight games. He played on the worst hitting team in the National League in years and still scored 94 runs despite not batting leadoff until two months into the season. He saw no pitches to hit whatsoever and was 23 years old and still cracked 16 home runs. He played for the most risk-averse manager in Pirates history and still stole 33 bases.

McCutchen will be better in 2011. He'll be 24. It's time for not a breakout season - no, that will be 2013 when he scores 130 runs - but a big season nonetheless. What skill does he not have? I am looking at 110 runs, 18 home runs, 70 RBI, .286 batting average of course, and 45 steals. He should slug around .480 and get on base at a .370 rate. That's the first piece to a championship team.

Ohlendorf Heads to Arbitration

2011-02-08T23:22:00.002-05:00

The Pirates went to arbitration with Ross Ohlendorf today. As I explained earlier, this is a shortsighted move with little upside other than a small financial gain in the immediate future. Ohlendorf is hoping for $2.025 million and the Pirates offered $1.4 million. A decision should come down tomorrow.

My point as made a few days ago is that there's just no reason to argue over this. In an arbitration hearing, the team basically will present its case as to why Ross Ohlendorf sucks. There's nothing productive about that, either for his confidence or for the team's ability to resign a pretty good pitcher. Does anyone seriously think that with salaries where they are, Ohlendorf isn't worth $2.025 million? Even if the Pirates win, it will be a Pyrrhic victory indeed.

Great Pirates in History: Doug Drabek

2011-02-05T09:07:00.004-05:00

Today we salute the ace of the most recent good Pirates teams, righthander Doug Drabek.

Doug Drabek threw a low 90s fastball, a hard slider, a slow curveball and his out pitch, a sinker. It was decent stuff, but Drabek's stuff belied his true talents. He had a fluid pitching motion, used the inside part of the plate, fielded his position well, was decent with the bat and held on runners. Nothing about him was superlative but he had no weakness. The Pirates rode Drabek's arm to three straight playoff appearances, and it is no coincidence that that streak stopped when he signed with another team.

The 1986 Pirates had been an awful group, a 64-98 last place team. None of the organization's young talent had really arrived, leaving a collection of average midcareer veterans not unlike the Dave Littlefield teams two decades later. Yet rather than take the approach of the current management group, GM Syd Thrift set out to aggressively improve his club by trading what few marketable assets he had.

Separate deals would bring in Bobby Bonilla, Andy Van Slyke, and others, but the trade for Doug Drabek was no less important and no less successful. Remember, this was at the height of George Steinbrenner's impatience. The Pirates dangled 33-year-old starter Rick Rhoden, the staff's ace who was coming off a career year in 1986 - 15-12, 2.84. Pittsburgh threw in two middle relievers and was able to get Drabek, who was ten years younger than Rhoden and was coming off a solid major league debut season in which he went 7-8, 4.10. Also coming over was Brian Fisher, who would also be in Pittsburgh's rotation for two years. Not surprisingly, Rhoden had 30 wins left in his arm while Drabek would win another 148 games.

Through July 1987, the trade looked terrible - Drabek was 2-10 with a 4.55 ERA while Rhoden was 13-6 with a 3.44 for New York. But then came one of Drabek's patented stretch runs: he went 9-2 with a 3.06 ERA in the final two months to finish at 11-12, 3.88, an improvement over his rookie year. Drabek was hurt by the long ball but established himself that year as a control pitcher, allowing only 2.3 walks per nine innings.

1988 brought further improvement - 15-7, 3.08 - and by 1989's 14-12, 2.80 campaign, Drabek was an established top of the rotation starter. He had gone 10-2, 1.90, in the final 18 games of 1988, then was solid throughout 1989. The Pittsburgh Pirates Encyclopedia claims Drabek's 1989 was "disappointing." This is a shocking claim by a purported authority - he had allowed fewer hits, home runs, runs and earned runs per inning than in any previous season while throwing a career high (to that point) 244 innings and eight complete games. It was a good enough season that by 1990, Drabek had earned the ball on Opening Day as Jim Leyland's ace.

The 1990 season was a storybook year, as the Pirates went 95-67 - a shocking 21 game improvement over 1989. Drabek almost unanimously won the Cy Young Award for his campaign, getting 23 of 24 votes. He went 22-6 with a 2.76 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. He threw one-hit shutout on a hot August day against a pretty good Phillies lineup, a game in which he had a no-hitter in that game with two outs in the ninth inning. But my pick for most impressive game was his pennant clincher in St. Louis on September 30. Drabek neatly dispatched the Cardinals in 80 pitches, allowing only three hits and zero walks in a shutout win. For the first time in 11 years the Pirates were returning to the playoffs.

Drabek next got the ball five days later for Game 2 of the NLCS. Already leading the series 1-0, the Pirates looked poised with their ace on the mound to take a commanding lead heading back to Pittsburgh. But the offense could only muster one run and Drabek lost a complete game decision, 2-1. The Pirates dropped Games 3 and 4 at Three Rivers Stadium and suddenly needed a win to stay alive. Drabek went 8.1 innings, allowing only one earned run, and got the win as the Bucs stayed alive, 3-2. But a 2-1 loss doomed the Pirates' fate. You win and lose as a team, but let's point out that Drabek posted a 1.65 ERA over 16.1 innings while Barry Bonds hit .167 in the series with one RBI.

Suffering from a lack of run support in 1991, Drabek went only 15-14 despite posting a 3.07 ERA in 35 starts for a division winning team. But he was still the team's ace and still got the ball in Game 1 of the playoffs, throwing six shutout innings to beat the Braves. With the Pirates leading 3-2 in games, Drabek took the mound again in Game 6 with the chance to clinch the pennant. The offense again failed Drabek, as he went the distance but lost 1-0. The Pirates lost in seven; Drabek had an 0.60 ERA in 15 innings; Bonds hit .148 with zero RBI.

Drabek posted his sixth straight solid season in 1992. He started his third straight Opening Day and went 15-11 with a 2.77 ERA, throwing a career high 257 innings. The Pirates won the division again and Drabek got the ball in Game 1 again. This time he pitched poorly and lost Game 1, then lost Game 4 in a mediocre performance. But his team helped him for once, and so he took the mound again in Game 7 at Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium. Drabek led 2-0 through eight innings. Jim Leyland had his Grady Little moment, leaving his ace in for three more batters and 129 total pitches, unspeakable things happened, and that was it for the '92 Pirates. Barry Bonds had two RBI in the series for a grand postseason total of three in three years.

And having won 95, 98, and 96 games over three seasons, Pirates management decided to blow the team up. Drabek, allowed to sign with the Astros, was just one player gone in a mass exodus of talent. Van Slyke hit the wall and the hometown nine were never the same.

None of the postseason failures, however, should diminish the fact that this was a great team. And for five years, 1988-92, Drabek was one of its great players. He went 92-62 with a 3.02 ERA in Pittsburgh and averaged 227 innings and 33 starts a year. Consistently displaying impeccable control, he allowed only a 1.15 WHIP and 2.2 walks per nine innings. And he turned things on in the postseason to the tune of a 2.05 ERA in seven starts, with only one home run allowed. For all that he is truly a great Pirate in history.

Ross Ohlendorf's Arbitration Case

2011-02-01T16:40:00.005-05:00

As mentioned today in Jennifer Langosch's mailbag, Ross Ohlendorf is the only remaining Pirate who hasn't settled his arbitration case. Ohlendorf asked for $2.025 million while the Pirates offered $1.4 million. Let's assess his case.

You no doubt know well that Ohlendorf was ineffective in his rookie year. He went 1-4, 6.46 with the Yankees and Pirates. The fact that the '08 Yankees had to resort to Ohlendorf 25 times out of the bullpen tells you a lot about why they missed the playoffs that year.

In 2009 Ross had a breakout year in which he went 11-10 with a 3.92 ERA. Making 29 starts, he threw 177 innings with a 1.23 WHIP. The only issue was his home rum rate, 1.3 per nine innings, but he was the Pirates' best pitcher and threw well enough to be a legitimate #2 starter and 15 game winner on an average team.

Last year of course, Ohlendorf again pitched well but was the biggest victim of the Pirates' ineffective offense. Despite a 4.07 ERA he went 1-11 in 21 starts (108 innings). His WHIP went up to 1.37 but his home run rate declined to 1.0/9. Ross also was injured twice. It was the greatest lost season of all time by a pitcher.

I think it's pretty uncontroversial that Ross's worth is closer to the higher figure. But the way arbitration works hurts him in two ways. First, players only receive about 40% of their market value. At that point Ross would be fine - his figure implies only a one year, $5 million deal on the open market, a price he would certainly command.

The second issue is more problematic: Arbitration is based on a player's baseball card stats as reflected in say, 1988 Topps. So the 1-11 record in 2010 really hurts him even though we know it's no reflection on how well he pitched. Same with the ERA - it won't be looked at as good, even though we know the Pirates' defense declined to a point where his 2010 ERA is actually the most impressive of his career. For arbitration purposes he's a guy who had a bad year in 2008, a good year in 2009, and a bad year in 2010 - even though clearly he's coming off two good years.

So my conclusion here is twofold. First, the Pirates likely would win that case. And second, it's not worth it. During an arbitration case, the Pirates would be forced to, in a quasi-judicial hearing, basically make the case that Ross Ohlendorf isn't a good pitcher. This is the kind of thing that destroys team-player relationships. You will very rarely see a player who goes to an arbitration hearing end up resigning with that team.

To save $600,000, it's just not worth it. Pay the man.

St. Marys Will Represent Against One Batter Per Game

2011-01-28T10:24:00.002-05:00

The Pirates added a lefthanded specialist to their bullpen today, signing Joe Beimel to a one year deal. Beimel is one of the better and more durable lefthanded specialists in the game. It's not a game changing signing but it certainly is one that will help the team.

How do I know it's a one year contract when terms of the offer are undisclosed? Well, I didn't have any details so I made some up. Peter Gammons.

Since 2006 Beimel has gone 13-12 with a 3.20 ERA, averaging 71 appearances a season. Those are impressive numbers for a guy who relies on an 87 mph fastball which he throws over two-thirds of the time. And they're numbers that show the power of Western PA. In addition to hailing from my favorite improperly punctuated town in Pennsylvania, Joe Beimel attended Duquesne University and pitched for the Pirates from 2001-03.

Spring Training Destination Guide

2011-01-25T11:27:00.006-05:00

For those of you who can't get tickets to PNC Park, it's time to start planning your spring training trips. All away games in Grapefruit League play are driveable, you know, once you get to Bradenton. And my new place on the South Side cuts my Bradenton commute from 1,068 miles to 1,066. Who better to review these away game destinations than someone who has been to one FSL stadium in his life?

At Port Charlotte (Rays) - Feb. 26, 28, March 11, 25
I've never been to Port Charlotte because nobody has been to Port Charlotte. It looks like a really offensive suburban trash town wih no jobs. Also, it seems like it should be on the beach and isn't. It's kind of close to the beach, meaning that you'll attempt to drive there after the game and get there like 40 minutes before sunset. It's only 60 miles from Bradenton but Florida traffic rules apply.

It's sad that the Reds left their longtime and nearby home in Sarasota for one in the middle of nowhere in the desert - which apparently made the Rays Pittsburgh's primary spring training opponent. What went on in 1987, in 2009, is still history and shouldn't be thrown away. Recommended Dining: Beef O'Brady's, 1825 Tamiami Trail.

At Dunedin (Blue Jays) - March 3, 12
An hour's drive in the opposite direction lies Dunedin, a quiet town of retirees. This is a good destination because Dunedin Stadium is a classic and historic minor league type of spring training park, where seats are really close to the field. There's really nothing to do there since it's primarily residential, but Clearwater is directly south and has some nice stuff along the beach. And by nice stuff I mean girls from the University of Mississippi who are on spring break. Recommended Dining: Beef O'Brady's, 1100 Tarpon Woods Blvd., Palm Harbor.

At Clearwater (Phillies) - March 5, 18
Bright House Networks Field is at the other extreme. Luxury boxes, video boards, plazas, fountains, batting cages, fake Spanish architecture - the Phillies have built themselves a real palace. It's good for what it is. Just keep in mind that it's impossible to get anywhere in Pinellas County. It's a regular grid system yet you always get lost. There's no way to make a left turn even; you have to make a U-turn and then turn right. You can be lost while you can see your destination. There's a large Scientology presence in Downtown Clearwater but by the beach it'll be Spring Break of course. Games end around 4 and Spring Break girls become intolerable around 5 so there's a short window. Recommended Dining: Beef O'Brady's, 10799 Park Blvd., Seminole.

At Fort Myers (Twins) - March 8, 28
Hammond Stadium is a nice stadium, underrated like Comiskey Park. In 1991, construction people weren't really concerned with real historical buildings, but they were concerned with building nice and clean designs that omitted fake historical features. So that's something. This is the longest road trip at about 90 miles so don't expect to see many stars make the trip. Especially since there is one star on the Pirates team. Despite being small, Fort Myers is a legit city with a fairly large ghetto. So overall, a nice location and trip. Recommended Dining: Beef O'Brady's, 11841 Palm Beach Blvd.

At Tampa (Yankees) - March 9, 26
Tampa is a charming city where the main library has more homeless people than books despite having a lot of books, and you have the opportunity to get shot on a quaint and charming street paved in red brick causing a tapestry of red colors the likes of which haven't been seen since the book cover to the bullshit new paperback edition of some book by Ernest Hemingway that came out in 1955 but somehow costs $18.95.

I've explained this to several people, but here's the deal with Yankees fans. There's nothing wrong with Yankees fans who have a legitimate claim to Yankee fandom. Like you're from Middletown, New York, you're a Yankees fan, go for it. Unfortunately during spring training you will deal with a heavy concentration of Yankees fans from like, Sandy Springs, Georgia, and there is something wrong with non-New York metro Yankees fans. Plan accordingly. The March 9 game is the only one of these away games that's at night. Recommended Dining: Beef O'Brady's, 4235 West Water Ave.

At Sarasota (Orioles) - March 14, 24
Once the Reds moved out of Sarasota, the Orioles moved in. Sarasota is the closest spring training town to Bradenton so it's surprising that the Pirates make only two trips there.

I stayed in Sarasota once with some friends once. We were 20 years old. There were two non-senior citizen girls in the city, ages 26 and 27, and both amazingly hot. We talked to them and they advised us to go to Key West. Recommended Dining: Beef O'Brady's, 5170 Clark Road.

At Kissimmee (Astros) - March 20
Don't even think about using this part of I-4 unless you have a joint. And it's illegal to have a joint. Catch-22. Recommended Dining: Walt Disney World Character Breakfast.

Is the Offseason Over?

2011-01-18T11:05:00.008-05:00

"You need one more, Coach."
"My team's on the floor."

It was a good coaching move by Gene Hackman, but he did that for one game. It helped in the other games to, you know, field a full team.

I referred to the three primary singings - Matt Diaz, Lyle Overbay, and Kevin Correia - as good moves for the Pirates. And they were - but it's not enough. If this is it, nothing in this offseason suggests that the Pittsburgh Pirates want to win in 2011. True, the primary use of free agency is to bring in complementary players who would improve a playoff-caliber team - but when you have a roster, only half of which is made up of legitimate major league players, what are you playing 162 games for?

At the time of the signings, the allegation was made that these were Dave Littlefield-like moves. Well, Littlefield would have made ten of those moves. He would sign any established regular at the end of the line and trade anybody for a low-celing prospect, but at least he would play his cards. He would enter every season with a club that, at a minimum, had Dave Littlefield convinced they would win. That's something.

There is no indication that Neil Huntington thinks he can win in 2011. He thinks he can win in 2012. That's an interesting outlook considering without winning in 2011, Neil Huntington will be gone in 2012. I have defended nearly every Huntington move, but we need more of them. We need another starting pitcher who will push Scott Olsen to fulfill his immense talent. With the bullpen devastated by trades, we need another glut of relievers similar to last offseason's group of signings. We need a righthanded first baseman to platoon with Overbay. We need a starting shortstop. You aren't getting these guys by waiting for someone to offer you all of them in trade for Ryan Doumit.

This is even more appalling considering only two or three teams in baseball have as much high-ceiling young talent in their lineups as Pittsburgh. The Pirates are one or two players away from a legitimately good lineup, and I hope I'm wrong but it looks like they're just deciding not to field one. Same thing in the bullpen. Even the starting rotation could be adequate. Nobody knows. But what's going to happen even if it all comes together for this team? Nothing when you are entering the season with major unfilled holes. We do know Lyle Overbay can't hit lefhanded pitching. We do know Ronny Cedeno can't hit period. Awful relief pitchers with no control aren't going to get anybody out.

What is Neil Huntington hoping for? A fifth place finish in front of a decimated Astros club? Get real. If only for our GM's personal job preservation, this offseason cannot and should not be over. And I hope it isn't.

Wow...

2011-01-12T23:13:00.003-05:00

Don't know how I missed this in March, but apparently this site took a fair amount of criticism from a major Yankees blog during 2010 Spring Training. To wit:

A few points about Paul Maholm:

1.) His page on Baseball-Reference.com is sponsored by something called "Pirates WFC Blog." Which used its sponsorship space to aver, "Maholm, Duke and Ohlendorf are the Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz of the 2010s. Prepare for the Pirates' impending World Series championship now by reading the Pirates WFC blog." THE PIRATES IMPENDING WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONSHIP.

Impending? As in "hovering threateningly"? As in "imminent"? It actually would sound just as weird to say "Yankees impending WS Championship" because, well, it's March. The only thinking impending is the need to recharge my computer's battery.

2.) Maholm hasn't had a winning season since 2005, when he went 3-1.

3.) His stats make him sound like he's a washed up middle-aged also-ran, a la Matt Herges. He's 27.

4.) In 2007, he ranked 2nd in the NL in shut-outs. One.

5.) In 2008, he made $424,500. In 2009, he made $2,500,000. Apparently going from 10-15 to 9-9 is grounds for a 589% raise in the NL. It makes me a little less bitter about the whole if-I-only-did-.300-of-my-job-I'd-get-fired thing.

So basically, one of two things: The first, and most likely, is that this guy thinks my statement about Paul Maholm was meant totally seriously. And he's deconstructed Maholm's career to show he's not in fact a Hall of Fame caliber pitcher.

The second possibility is that he is in fact fucking with me, and he is making me THINK he took this seriously, then arguing against my point to further fuck with me.

Your thoughts?

Bert Blyleven, A Great Hall of Famer

2011-01-06T14:07:00.005-05:00

Great news yesterday. In his 14th year of eligibility, former Pirates pitcher and 1979 World Champion Bert Blyleven is a Hall of Famer.

This is one of many sites that championed Blyleven's candidacy. Even though few or no voters read my posts, similar posts on hundreds of sites add up. Blyleven's vote percentages mirrored the sheer number of sites like this one, increasing from 14% in 1999 to 80% in 2000. Mainstream media analysis has evolved from silly throwaway excuses such as "he didn't feel like a Hall of Famer when he was playing" to a real analysis of the player's qualifications. And Blyleven's are superb: 287 wins, a 3.31 ERA, 242 complete games, 3701 strikeouts (ninth all time) - all accomplished with what was probably the most devastating curveball of all time.

The erstwhile ace of the 1979 World Champions, Blyleven won two games that postseason and allowed only three runs in 19 innings. As he did so many times that season, when he went 12-5 in 37 starts, he pitched brilliantly in a no decision in World Series Game 2, later won by Pittsburgh. Summoned from the bullpen a few days later, trailing 1-0 and facing elimination in Game 5, he shut down the powerful Orioles for four innings for the win.

Bert was seldom happy during his days in Pittsburgh from 1978 to 1980. He liked to pitch the entire game, and manager Chuck Tanner allowed him to complete only 20 of 103 starts during three seasons. Before and after his tenure, he had single years when he completed over 20.

Blyleven joins the hall of fame at least a decade too late. But the fact that he was so undervalued helped the teams he played for during his career, all of whom were able to acquire the righthander without giving fair value. He cost the Pirates good-but-not-great left fielder Al Oliver, but Oliver was the only player ever swapped for Bert Blyleven who was even remotely close in talent level. Sadly, Pittsburgh dumped him after the 1980 season for a collection of scrubs, none of whom lasted over a year here. He would win 131 more games in other uniforms.

Congratulations to Bert Blyleven on receiving baseball's highest honor.

Parker Falls Short
That 1979 Pirates team now boasts two Hall of Famers, with Willie Stargell joining Bert Blyleven. But neither was the best player on the team - that honor belonged to Dave Parker, a true five tool talent who was pretty clearly the best player in the league from 1975 to 1979. During his five year peak, Baseball Reference figures that Parker was worth 30.1 wins to his teams. Yet he could muster only 15% of the votes in this, his final year on the ballot.

Parker was merely good for most of the rest of his career (six more 90 RBI seasons after he left Pittsburgh). He had 2,712 career hits; would have had 3,000 if he had become an everyday player in 1973 rather than being blocked for two years by baseball's best lineup. The voters saw fit to elect Jim Rice - the exact same hitter as Parker only for a shorter career, at an easier position, without any of Parker's Gold Gloves. Unfortunately, Parker may never make the Hall. If he does it will be as an old man, inducted via seemingly random decisions of the Veterans Committee.

Mondesi Shut Out
And of course, great former Pirates Raul Mondesi and Benito Santiago received one vote total, that vote going to Santiago. You can't win 'em all.

Great Pirates in History: Matty Alou

2010-12-24T17:19:00.006-05:00

A championship is awarded for one season, but it represents the work of many years. Today we salute a player who was no longer around when the champagne bottles were popped - but who was certainly integral in building the 1971 World Champion Pirates and the 1970s dynasty.

In December 1966, Matty Alou was known primarily as Felipe Alou's younger brother. He was a career .260 hitter with no power who never walked. Alou had enough speed to cover a lot of outfield ground, but the Giants had Willie Mays in center field and nobody needs a left fielder who can't hit.

Pirates manager Harry Walker, though, saw a hitter who hadn't been given the right coaching or enough playing time to develop. In the type of move that would be laughed at by sites like this one today, Pittsburgh shipped pitcher Joe Gibbon to San Francisco for Alou and even threw in reserve catcher Ozzie Virgil. A lefthander with a 3.61 career ERA, who could start and relieve, shipped off for some guy who hit .231 with two home runs the year before? It was a desperation move for a Pittsburgh squad which at that point had no center fielder on its roster. But it was a desperation move that worked.

Rebirth
Matty Alou was well known as a dead pull hitter - a dangerous recipe for a pure contact guy. Teams could play their outfielders shallow and toward right field, rendering Alou's bat ineffective outside Candlestick Park. Walker taught him to choke up on the bat and spray the ball between the outfielders. Defensively, Alou moved to his natural position, center field. He led off every day against righthanders. Against lefties, Walker would keep Alou on the bench until he was needed for defense or to pinch hit in a hey spot.

Walker had hoped to make Matty Alou into a .280 hitter, but he failed - he made a .340 hitter. By the time he collected four hits on October 2, Alou was the National League batting champion at .342. It was his 55th multi-hit game in only 121 starts. He hit .346 at Forbes Field, .338 on the road; .338 in the first half, .346 in the second half; .315 in his worst month; .364 in his best; .335 during the day, .345 at night. He scored 86 runs, incredible for a platoon player in the pitching-dominated 1960s. Defensively, he was perfect for the spacious Forbes center field. He finished a career-best ninth in MVP voting. The Pirates contended until the final weekend but finished just short of the pennant.

"The harder Matty Alou attacks a baseball, the more it bleeds," wrote the Associated Press's Dick Couch.

Pittsburgh's 1966 outfield may have been the best ever for any team. Roberto Clemente scored 105 runs, hit 29 home runs and drove in 119, all career highs, and won his sixth of 12 straight Gold Gloves and his only MVP. In left field the Pirates had a young slugger named Willie Stargell, who hit .315/.381/.581 with 33 homers and 102 RBI in only 485 at bats. Manny Mota had a career year off the bench, batting .332/.383/.472.

Continued Excellence
In 1967 the league batting average dipped from .256 to .249 and the league ERA was 3.38. Alou was either unaware of this or didn't care, so he hit .338 - third in the league. He had 54 multi-hit games in only 125 starts, and scored 87 runs, 13th in the league and ahead of most everyday players. Unfortunately, though the outfield had another historically great season, the Pirates' pitching was ninth in the league and the club went only 81-81.

A friend of Mota named Rudolfo Perlu, who had fled Fidel Castro's Cuba with a family of ten, lost his Brookline home to fire that summer. Alou invited Perlu's entire family to stay in his apartment. "I don't want any publicity on this," the batting champion told the Post-Gazette.

The 1968 NL was the most difficult league for hitters in the modern era. The league batting average was .243 and the league ERA was 2.99. Alou hit a cool .332 - second in the league. Although he was displaced from his leadoff spot by Maury Wills and still rested against lefthanders, he had 56 multi-hit games. Alou was rewarded with more MVP votes and his first All-Star honor, but Pittsburgh slumped to 80-82 and sixth place.

Most fans no doubt were happy with Alou's performance thus far, but 1969 would be his greatest season as a Pirate. Manager Larry Shepard, who had taken over in '68, decided that there was no point in benching one of the league's best hitters against lefties. He returned Alou to the leadoff spot and batted him there every day. Playing in all 162 games, he held his own against lefties, batting .284, and hit a career high .351 against righthanders for a .331 season average - fourth in the league. He scored 105 runs and led the league with .231 hits and 41 doubles. Alou had 70 multi-hit games, got MVP votes and made another All-Star team. The Pirates improved to 88-74, foreshadowing their dominance in the coming decade.

Alou returned in the same role in 1970, his final year with the Pirates. Unfortunately, this is the year he probably should have been platooning as he hit only .259 against lefthanded pitching, .313 against righties. He still had a good year with 97 runs scored, 201 hits and a .297 average, and still had good range in center. Pittsburgh now had young hitters like Richie Hebner and Al Oliver to complement their All-Star outfield. The Pirates had good enough pitching to win a weak NL East with an 89-73 mark but were swept out of the NLCS.

End of an Era
By the 1970-71 offseason, the Pirates wanted to move young first baseman Al Oliver to his natural position in center field. Matty Alou was the odd man out. He was shipped to St. Louis for pitcher Nelson Briles and backup outfielder Vic Davalillo, both of whom were key contributors for the 1971 World Champions. Without the talents of Alou, there never would have been Nelson Briles's two-hit shutout of the Orioles in Game 5 of the World Series.Few outfielders are valuable without power or plate discipline. Matty Alou was the rare exception. A catalyst at the top of the order, he averaged 20 steals, scored at least 87 runs in four of five seasons, and batted .331 or better four straight years. He was impossible to strike out and his speed and contact abilities induced countless errors by opposing defenses. He filled a major hole in the Pirates' defense, completed the best outfield Pittsburgh has ever seen, and helped usher in the 1970s dynasty. For that, he is truly a great Pirate in history.

Atkins Will Compete for 1B/3B Job

2010-12-24T15:00:00.007-05:00

The Pirates announced the signing of Garrett Atkins yesterday. Atkins is a righthanded corner infielder who will make $800,000 if he's on the major league roster. I expect him to make the team as a backup at first and third base.

That's a far cry from the $4 million Atkins got from the Orioles on a one-year deal last offseason. He turned out to be the Orioles' Akinori Iwamura as he hit .214 with one home run and was released in July. He'll try to resurrect his career in Pittsburgh. What makes this intriguing is that Atkins is one of several players who was an outstanding hitter under Clint Hurdle's instruction and then fell apart when Hurdle left Colorado. From 2005-2008, Atkins hit .301/.364/.482 and averaged 87 runs, 36 doubles, 22 homers and 105 RBI a year. In 2006 he scored 117 runs and drove in 120. Even in Coors Field that's excellent production from a third baseman.

In 2009 and 2010, Atkins hit only .223/.299/.326, performances which doomed him to a sub-$1 million contract. But he will be only 31 this year and still owns a career batting line of .285/.350/.449, .294/.379/.467 off of lefthanders. Don't be surprised if he's platooning with Lyle Overbay by May. Atkins hasn't hit lefthanders for two years, while Overbay hasn't hit southpaws in his career.

Also signed to a split minor/major league contract was Josh Fields, another righthanded hitter who figures to compete with Atkins for the backup corner infield job. Fields is a former top prospect with some pop in his bat, but he never learned either plate discipline or contact hitting leading to a career batting line of .234/.303/.431. Coupled with below average defense, that makes Fields look like AAA filler. But he'll still be only 28 and he hit .306 with three home runs in 50 at-bats with the Royals last year. Stranger things have happened, see, e.g., Garrett Jones in 2009.

Brewers Are The Favorites - Now What?

2010-12-20T16:55:00.005-05:00

The last time this year's edition of the Brewers boasted a winning record, the club was a whopping 2-1. Absurd and unexpected breakout seasons from Rickie Weeks, Casey McGehee, and Corey Hart could not counteract the fact that this was a deeply flawed club. Their sluggers helped on defense about as much as Green Bay Packer wide receivers; their pitching staff was a mess of Parras and Narvesons. The lineup was the baseball version of U2's "All that You Can't Leave Behind;" you could turn it off after track 5.

Entering this offseason, the primary Brewer-related question was where the club would ship star slugger Prince Fielder. Milwaukee was bringing back only one good starting pitcher and two solid relievers; there were no plans in place for how to handle Game 2 of the 2011 season. The minor league system was barren. Unquestionably it was time to rebuild. Get some value out of Fielder before he inevitably bolted to the East Coast after one more losing season.

Brewers GM Doug Melvin started quietly - a Mike Rivera here, a Carlos Villanueva there. Then in his first blockbuster deal, Melvin plucked Toronto's emerging ace Shaun Marcum. I suspect Marcum isn't familiar to many readers, but the fifth best WHIP and the third best ERA in the 2010 American League isn't messing around - not when you make five starts against the Red Sox and four against the Rays.

The price was steep - top second base prospect Brett Lawrie. But prospects are prospects and established stars are established stars. Machiavelli wrote, "Men rise from one ambition to another: first, they seek to secure themselves against attack, and then they attack others." With the Jays conceding 2011 despite an 85-win 2010, it is clear who took which route in this deal.

And then, of course, Greinke. For the Royals' ace, Milwaukee shipped four young players yesterday to Kansas City. He needs no introduction, but Greinke has put up a 3.32 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 8.3 K/9 since 2007. Marcum in the same time period put up a 3.72 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 7.3 K/9. Gallardo had a 3.67 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 9.7 K/9. All are in their prime. They're as good as the Cardinals top three, only backed by, you know, more than two position players who can hit.

The Greinke deal is closely intertwined with the Marcum deal. The Brewers' emphasis on immediate contention - basically, making the Marcum deal - is what persuaded Greinke to waive his no-trade clause for the Brewers when he didn't for the Nationals.

Faced with a choice of conceding 2011 before the season or letting the year play out with a losing record, Doug Melvin chose the third option - contending. Maybe Prince Fielder will leave after the season, maybe not. Greinke and Fielder may both be gone after 2012. But C.C. Sabathia is gone now, and the memories of 2008 are not. Sabathia created excitement, an emotion that doesn't die when a season ends. Babes still own their Brewers T-shirts, size Extra Small. In a market much smaller than Pittsburgh, with a losing team and a nondescript park along a highway outside of town, Milwaukee drew 2.8 million fans in 2010. They'll draw more in 2011.

Maybe the Jays and Royals would have gotten nothing for their aces after 2012, but that's a nonexistent problem in December 2010. This is what I don't get about the Pirates. If the grand plan is to win 88 games in 2012, what does that have to do with winning 57 games in 2010, winning 62 games in 2009, winning 71 in 2011? Maybe we could win 82 in 2011. Maybe there are 162 games on the schedule in 2011 and there's no point in doing anything but putting a team on the field that might win a lot of them.

To be sure, the Pirates have secured themselves against attack. The Process is logically unassailable - but life happens in the present tense. It's time for the Pirates to act accordingly.

Great Pirates in History: Arky Vaughan

2010-12-18T07:00:00.001-05:00

Arky Vaughn was a consistent .300 hitting, .400 OBP shortstop with doubles and triples power, steady in the field and smart on the basepaths. In his worst years he was the best shortstop in the league; his best years rank among the best by any shortstop ever. Bill James ranked Vaughan as the second greatest shortstop of all time.

Early Stardom
Vaughan was born in Clifty, Arkansas, the source of his unusual nickname. The town, today consisting of a "General Store" and an "Antique Mall," apparently didn't offer much athletic opportunity... so Vaughan didn't start playing baseball until his mid-teens. The Pirates somehow discovered him and sent him to single A Wichita for his first professional season in 1931. Vaughan proceeded to hit .338 with 21 doubles, 16 triples, and 21 home runs.

Meanwhile back in Pittsburgh, an offense laden with three Hall of Famers could not muster four runs a game in 1931 thanks in part to shortstop Tommy Thevenow, whose offensive numbers would make Ronny Cedeno blush. Thevenow hit .213 and hadn't hit a home run in five years.

Invited to spring training on a minor league contract, Vaughan took advantage of an injury to Thevenow and impressed enough people to make the jump to the big leagues. At 20 he was the youngest player in the league. He sat on the bench for 13 games, batting twice, but made the most of his first start:

"Vaughan appears to have a punch, as two resounding triples to the empty zone betwixt Babe Herman in right and the fleet Taylor Douthit will attest," reported the Pittsburgh Press. "He has a fine throwing arm, as the three double plays in which he participated, can prove. He has the willingness to go from here to Hoboken after a drive...Too fulsome praise of this latest Bucco may be unseemly, for a thimbleful of Bourbon doesn't make a highball and one game doesn't make a season, but coming on top of laudatory reports from the training camp and on the exhibition jaunt, it looks like Floyd, after the initial hubbub subsides, may develop into a mighty fine shortfielder."

Intrepid reporting, considering Prohibition wouldn't end for another eleven months. It's like writing today, "A pinch of Marijuana doesn't make a blunt." Anyway, Vaughan was batting third two weeks later and never stopped hitting for the next ten seasons. He finished his rookie year at .318 with 10 triples and 71 runs scored, good enough to rank as the most valuable shortstop in the league in MVP voting. The Pirates improved from 75-79 to 86-68.

In his sophomore season, Vaughan hit in the bottom half of the order but amassed a team leading 97 RBI while hitting .314. He improved in every offensive statistic, led the league with 19 triples, and began to show his famed plate discipline with 64 walks and only 23 strikeouts. His .388 on base percentage was third in the league. He led the league in errors, but it was said that he made errors on balls no other shortstop would get to. The Pirates finished in second place at 87-67.

Transcendance
In 1934, the Pittsburgh newspapers started calling Floyd Vaughan "Arky." The Pirates installed Arky as their cleanup hitter. The name change apparently worked. Vaughan had his finest year yet as he hit .333, scored 115 runs, and drove in another 94. His game was tailor made for cavernous Forbes Field, which at the time measured a cool 457 feet between home plate and the center field fence. He stroked 41 doubles, 11 triples, and 12 home runs. Stolen bases were not a big part of 1930s baseball but he led the team with 10. He led the NL with 94 walks and a .431 on base percentage. Vaughan made the first of nine consecutive All-Star teams. Yet the team slipped to a losing record, 74-76.

In 1935 Vaughan put together what is arguably the greatest offensive season ever by a shortstop. He hit .385, slugged .607 and got on base at an incredible .491 clip. All were league leading numbers. Vaughan was hitting .400 as late as September 10. Despite missing 17 games with injuries, he scored 108 runs, drove in 99, and led the league with 97 walks. He had more home runs (19) than strikeouts (18). Vaughan was easily the best player in the league but the Pirates, rebounding to 86 wins, only finished fourth and Vaughan lost the MVP to Cubs catcher Gabby Hartnett. Since 1900, only Barry Bonds, Ted Williams, Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle and Rogers Hornsby had a better on base percentage in a season.

No one releases Exile on Main St. twice, but Arky Vaughan came pretty damn close in 1936 as he hit .335 and led the league in on base percentage (.453) for a third straight year. He led the league with 118 walks and 122 runs scored. The Pirates now featured the league's best offense but again finished fourth.

Overall from 1934-36, Vaughan hit .350, slugged .527 and got on base at a .457 rate. In 442 games he scored 345 runs, drove in 271 and had 568 hits. He walked 309 times and struck out 77, and had 177 extra base hits. Throughout the 1930s, scoring was much lower in the National League than in the American, and Forbes Field was the NL's largest park. These numbers are every bit as impressive as Lou Gehrig's or anyone else's of that era.

Mere Greatness
In the offseason of 1936-37, the Pirates attempted to trade for St. Louis ace Dizzy Dean. The Cardinals demanded $175,000 and seven players including Vaughan. The Pirates wisely refused to include their star shortstop in any deal. Dean would win only 29 more games in his career.

Back in Pittsburgh, no one can put up otherworldly numbers every year, so Vaughan settled for being one of the best and most consistent players in the league for the next five seasons. His on base percentages from 1937-1942 were .394, .433, .385, .393, and .399. His slugging percentages were .463, .444, .424, .453 and .455. He led the league in triples in 1937 (17) and 1940 (15), in runs in 1940 (113), and had another 100 walk season in 1938 (104).

United Press ran a wire story one July entitled, "Arky Vaughan Unable to Explain Batting Slump." He was hitting .298 at the time with a .424 on base percentage.

Yet while Vaughn was consistently great, his Pirate teams had the curse of respectability. Six times from 1932 to 1938 they had winning percentages between .545 and .573. Those would be borderline playoff performances now, but back then everyone but the league's top team went home.

Fielding one of the weakest teams Arky had played for, the 1938 Pirates staged the last pennant race of the Vaughan years. After over two months in first place, Pittsburgh traveled to Wrigley Field with a week left in the season, leading the second place Cubs by 1.5 games. Dizzy Dean beat the Bucs 2-1 in the first game. The next day, the Pirates blew a 5-3 lead in the final two innings to fall a half game behind. Thurday was a 10-1 blowout, and the pennant race was all but over. Vaughan got on base eight times in the series.

The Pirates finished in their familiar fourth place in 1941, but Vaughan missed 48 games that year. Manager Frankie Frisch inexplicably began shopping his still 29-year-old shortstop around the league. In one of the worst trades in Pirate history, Pittsburgh shipped Vaughan to the Dodgers for four unimpressive players. He had a few more good years in Brooklyn and was done.

Overall, Arky Vaughan hit an unbelievable .324/.414/.472 for the Pirates while capably manning one of the most important defensive positions on the diamond. He never won an MVP but easily deserved three. Arky Vaughan was the best all-around Pirate other than Honus Wagner, and one of the best of all time at his position. Though he is the most underrated player in the Hall of Fame, Arky Vaughan clearly is a great Pirate in history.

2011 Pirates: An Above Average Lineup

2010-12-14T22:10:00.010-05:00

Although I am sure the Pirates aren't done with their offseason yet, it's starting to look like the 2011 lineup is set. Chris Snyder, Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez, Andrew McCutchen, and Jose Tabata were pretty much guaranteed starting jobs. At right field and first base the Pirates signed two of the players with the most pronounced left/right splits in baseball, Matt Diaz and Lyle Overbay. Those guys are looking suspiciously like platoon partners for Garrett Jones and Steven Pearce respectively. And at shortstop, the other position I hoped to improve, Ronny Cedeno resigned for $2 million and the Pirates' attempts to trade for J.J. Hardy or Jason Bartlett have failed.

Clearly the defense has improved over 2010. Diaz/Jones is better than Lastings Milledge/Jones in right, Overbay/Pearce is light years ahead of Jones/Jeff Clement at first, and Snyder as the primary catcher is much better than Ryan Doumit. But how many runs will this lineup score?

I don't think projections are that accurate for individual players, but for an entire team they're not bad since some players are bound to underperform while others overperform their projections. The only major projections that are fully released for 2011 are the Bill James estimates so we'll use that. As he usually does, I expect Diaz to end up starting more than half the games despite being the righthanded half of a platoon. So here's what James predicts the Pirates' most common starters to do (predicted AVG/OBP/SLG in parentheses):

2011 Pirates
CF McCutchen (.287/.364/.445)
LF Tabata (.287/.339/.387)
2B Walker (.270/.324/.438)
3B Alvarez (.277/.352/.501)
1B Overbay (.253/.345/.431)
RF Diaz (.292/.341/.454)
C Snyder (.219/.326/.401)
SS Cedeno (.250/.294/.371)

The Baseball Musings lineup analyzer says this lineup will generate 4.466 runs per game. That's 723 runs over a full season which would have ranked seventh in the National League in 2010. The average team scored 701.

That's right, this is an above average lineup. And I might have underestimated it. For the #9 spot I used the Pirates' numbers in that spot in 2010 which were .150/.183/.219. Almost no team has had poorer hitting pitchers and pinch hitters than the 2010 Pirates. Credit the Pirates with the National League's 2010 average #9 batting line, .180/.223/.250, and the run expectancy goes up to 4.566, 739 runs over a full season, which would have been fifth in the league in 2010.

What if the Pirates addressed the Cedeno issue by trading for Marco Scutaro as I previously advocated? After the Carl Crawford signing, Boston has an even greater need to shed payroll. James predicts a line of .266/.339/.374 for Scutaro. This hardly would be an earthshattering move, but now we're up to 4.635 runs a game - 751 over a full season, fourth in the 2010 NL, and the defense is improved now too. That would be exciting.

I don't think the assumptions here are wrong either. James actually expects the first three hitters in the lineup - McCutchen, Tabata and Walker - to regress slightly in 2011. Snyder hitting .213 is hardly optimistic. Alvarez's projection is good, but nothing in his background suggests that he can't attain those numbers in 2011.

I know an average lineup seems like a pipe dream to most, but the Pirates actually beat the league average in runs as recently as 2008. Don't let 2010's 587 run disaster blind you to the fact that this is a pretty solid lineup. It's another reason to be excited about the 2011 Pirates.

Pirates Sign Overbay

2010-12-14T14:43:00.005-05:00

The Pirates signed lefthanded first baseman Lyle Overbay to a one-year contract today. Overbay is strictly a platoon player so it looks like he'll split time at first with either Garrett Jones or Steven Pearce.

Against lefthanders in his career, Overbay has shown poor on base skills and marginal power, hitting .259/.308/.402. The story is entirely different against righthanders, who Overbay has hit quite well - .279/.375/.463.

Like the Pirates' other signings, Overbay is a player with a history of success who is hoping to rebound from an off year. Last year he hit only .249/.329/.433 for Toronto, including 20 home runs, 67 RBI and 75 runs scored. Incidentally, that's still better than what Garrett Jones did here. Also a major culprit in his off year was manager Cito Gaston, who inexplicably started him 31 times against lefthanded starting pitchers.

Of particular interest to Pirates fanas, Overbay is an above average defensive first baseman. Baseball Reference credits him with adding 7.1 additional wins to his team over his career with is fielding.

Like some of the Pirates' other moves, this isn't an unbelievable find by any means - but it is one that improves the team. Overbay is a veteran who will be 34 next year, which will certainly prompt comparisons to a Dave Littlefield signing. Yet those same critics ignore than virtually all free agents available who have had any level of success are going to be in their 30s. With no available prospects who could play first base and right field, Matt Diaz and Lyle Overbay are the type of players who can help in 2011.

With Lee, can Phillies challenge Pirates?

2010-12-14T00:09:00.011-05:00

Late Monday night, the Philadelphia Phillies signed Cliff Lee. This established Pittsburgh's cross-state rival as the primary challenger to the favored Pirates for the 2011 National League pennant - and, with the Yankees now in decline, presumably the World Series.

Get your toll money ready, boys, because with the Pirates adding Scott Olsen and Kevin Correia this same week, the two Pennsylvania teams now will certainly meet in the National League Championship Series in October. Pittsburgh's rotation has more depth with the Phillies' fifth starter situation up in the air, but especially in a short series, Philadelphia is at least in the discussion for best rotation in the league.

Expected NLCS matchups are as follows (2010 stats in parentheses):

Game 1 in Pittsburgh
Ross Ohlendorf (1-11, 4.07) vs. Roy Halladay (21-10, 2.44)

Game 2 in Pittsburgh
Paul Maholm (9-15, 5.10) vs. Cliff Lee (12-9, 3.18)

Game 3 in Philadelphia
James McDonald (4-6, 4.02) vs. Cole Hamels (12-11, 3.06)

Game 4 in Philadelphia
Kevin Correia (10-10, 5.40) vs. Roy Oswalt (13-13, 2.76)

Game 5 in Philadelphia
Ohlendorf vs. Halladay

Games 6 & 7 in Pittsburgh
Not Necessary, Pirates win in five

Obviously the Pirates have the advantage with their youthful fire, unstoppable force, alternate caps, and celebrity bartenders. But it will be true old time baseball, hearkening back to the 1909 WFC season. Bunts, stealing bases, 2-1 and 1-0 games, leaving your glove in the field between innings, all that. The Lee signing really gives the Pirates a worthy adversary. Only ten months away.

Clear Idiocy

2010-12-10T18:49:00.012-05:00

Yesterday, Clear Channel fired Rocco DeMaro - host of the "Pirates Extra Innings" postgame show on WPGB - effective immediately. I would normally use the phrase "announced the firing" but in the corporate radio version of a text message breakup, they simply said nothing and removed all references to DeMaro's show from the WPGB web site. This is an apparent cost-cutting move so it's uncertain if the show will continue at all in the 2011 season.

I listened to Rocco's show on the first night I moved to Pittsburgh in August 2008. The Pirates had lost 11-2 in St. Louis on a Wednesday. Jason Davis got rocked and the offense couldn't score. Boom, postgame show, three seconds of airtime. Imagine if your job was to talk about that game for two hours.

Yet Rocco always found ways to generate interesting content. He scored interviews with nationally known analysts on a regular basis. He analyzed the major league team, the minor league teams, draft prospects, a never-ending string of unimportant transactions, strategy, statistics, and had people calling in on all these points. We know that most of this city's media members either criticize every Pirates move without thinking or implicitly endorse every move to curry favor with their sources. DeMaro was one of two media members who covered the Pirates with a consistently objective tone, one of two whose opinion I wouldn't immediately be able to guess, and the only one who had a platform to give those opinions. That is gone.

I'm not sure where to start on this decision, but let's first mention the fact that DeMaro's postgame show got higher ratings than the game. That's right, higher ratings than the games that Clear Channel pays money to air.

Also, on the cost-cutting. WPGB ranks fourth in ratings in the Pittsburgh market, which is the 25th biggest radio market in the country. WPGB inexplicably fired another popular sports host, Ellis Cannon, in March, and fired DeMaro yesterday. The Pirates provide their own announcers, so WPGB now has no sports hosts. What does their on-air "talent" consist of? Apparently the #4 rated station now can only afford to pay two local hosts, Jim Quinn and Rose Tennent. Quinn intelligently states on his web site, "Racial profiling is common sense" and "Islam is a global mental illness." So basically, promoting hatred of anyone who isn't white, appropriate; talking about Pirates baseball on the station that airs the Pirates in this market, inappropriate. Luckily Clear Channel's Pirates contract is up after 2011.

Speaking of that contract, Clear Channel signed a five year deal in 2006 to air Pirates baseball for the 2007-11 seasons. Undoubtedly Clear Channel offered the most money, but also key to the Pirates decision to end their affiliation with 50,000 watt KDKA-AM was the emphasis on sports at WPGB. "The partnership gives the Pirates enhanced opportunities to reach more fans outside of the game broadcasts through Clear Channel's massive dedication to sports and the Pirates on WPGB 104.7 FM," stated the Pirates' release at the time. The Pirates thought that broadcasting on a station with a sports host (Ellis Cannon) as the lead in and an extended postgame show afterwards would create more exposure for the Pirates in this market. Now, the lead in is Sean Hannity and the start of Michael Savage's show; if no one is hired to replace DeMaro, the postgame is the rest of Michael Savage's show. WPGB has taken their Pirates page down in their haste to pretend Rocco never worked there. Searching for "Pirates" or selecting "Sports" from the station's main page yields an error message.

Now I haven't seen the broadcast contract and I don't know anything about commercial contracts, even though I have a final exam on them Monday. But basically, if the Pirates relied on Clear Channel's promise of a sports emphasis to enter this contract, the Pirates probably have a legal right to get out of it and sign with another station if they are so inclined. Based on yesterday's move, that might be a good idea.

Pirates Add Infielder in Rule V Draft

2010-12-09T21:48:00.006-05:00

The Major League Basbeall Rule V draft was held this morning. By way of a quick review, teams are able to draft any player who is not on a 40-man roster after either four or five years with their organization. The drafting team must keep the player on the major league 25-man roster for the entire season, either active or on the disabled list, or he must be offered back to his original team.

Your Pittsburgh Pirates had the first pick and chose infielder Josh Rodriguez from the Cleveland Indians. While the majority of Rule V picks don't stick with their organization, I think Rodriguez is a player who stay on the major league roster all season as a positive contributor.

The Tribe's second round pick in 2006, Rodriguez looked like a pretty solid prospect in his first full season. He hit .262/.351/.460 with the Carolina League's Kinston Indians including 84 runs, 20 home runs, and 82 RBI. He lost his prospect status with a terrible 2008 in which he didn't hit at all at AA Akron, followed by a 2009 in which injuries limited him to 33 games (albeit with a .426 OBP).

As a side note, I highly recommend seeing a game in Kinston's historic Grainger Stadium. In Faulkneresque fashion, the park hasn't been renovated or really changed at all since it opened in 1949. Think of the classic minor league "family atmosphere" only without families, or fans really, and with shotgun shacks across the street. Beer is priced such that anyone holding an Economics degree, such as myself, is basically required to buy one's own 64 ounce pitcher in the first and sixth innings. Unfortunately I didn't make it to that many games during my time in North Carolina because there was at that time a decided lack of people who wanted to be designated drivers for a 190 mile round trip.

In 2010, Rodriguez re-established prospect status. He showcased improved plate discipline and the power he had shown three years before returned. He hit .317/.405/.476 at Akron and was quickly promoted to Buffalo where he hit .293/.372/.486. That's a solid 12.9% walk rate over the past two seasons. Not only that, but Rodriguez played a super sub role in which he played shortstop, third base, second base, left, center, and right field.

I put Rodriguez's AAA numbers into the Minor League Equivalency Calculator and came out with a resulting batting line of .247/.315/.395. Ronny Cedeno's career batting line is .245/.284/.356. So here is a vastly superior shortstop that we added for the $50,000 Rule V price. Remind me why Cedeno was signed for $2 million...

Adcock Drafted by Royals
With the fifth pick in the Rule V draft, the Kansas City Royals drafted Bradenton starter Nathan Adcock from the Pirates organization. He put together a nice season in 2010 going 11-7, 3.38, with a 3:1 K/BB ratio and a 1.20 WHIP in 141 innings. That also was incidentally Adcock's only good year ever and there's no indication he has prospect-level stuff. Although the Royals rival only the Pirates in ability to keep non-MLB baseball players on their major league roster, I would be pretty surprised if Adcock doesn't end up being returned to the Pirates - maybe as early as spring training.

Matt Diaz Signs To Play Right Field

2010-12-09T00:03:00.005-05:00

The Pirates added half of a power hitter to their lineup Wednesday, signing corner outfielder Matt Diaz to a two-year contract for $4.5 million. This move was particularly inspiring in that it proves Neil Huntington's bullshit claim of using Ryan Doumit as the everyday right fielder was actually bullshit he was making up, and not a bullshit move that the Pirates actually will make.

Diaz has a solid career batting line of .301/.350/.456. The reason I say half of a power hitter is his left/right splits which are some of the most pronounced in baseball. Diaz has absolutely murdered lefthanded pitching with a .335/.373/.533 career batting line off southpaws. Against righthanders he is, well, Lastings Milledge, with a career line of .269/.327/.382. Defensively Diaz is above average in left field and slightly below average in right, though he definitely holds his own. On the bases, Diaz has decent speed and chooses his spots well. He has been successful on 23 of 31 stolen base attempts and rarely gets thrown out on the bases. For the record, that is unlike a certain Pirates right fielder from this past season.

Certainly more work needs to be done on this lineup, but this Diaz signing is more good news for the Pirates. Unlike, say, every right fielder the Pirates used in 2010, Diaz is the type of player who you will always see on a successful team. Notwithstanding left/right splits, he is an above average major league hitter. Really the only problem with this signing is that Diaz looks suspiciously like a platoon partner for Garrett Jones.

Hidden in the Pirates 16th-ranked offense in the NL was the fact that the Pirates' most common starters at each position collectively hit at an above average level. The problem was that the Pirates got less than zero from all their secondary players. Every player with between 50 and 300 plate appearances had an on base percentage between .227 and .312 and slugged between .207 and .414. Except for Chris Snyder, all of this dead weight has been jettisoned for 2010. Replacing Lastings Milledge with Matt Diaz is another positive improvement, giving the Pirates a legitimate shot at - dare I say it - an average offense.

Pirates Sign Kevin Correia

2010-12-07T00:36:00.007-05:00

Good news early Tuesday morning as the Pirates signed righthanded pitcher Kevin Correia to a two-year deal worth $8 million.

Entering his age 30 season, Correia has been hit or miss - his last five ERAs are 3.49, 3.45, 6.05, 3.91 and 5.40. Obviously there's some talent there, but the inconsistency causes him to drop to the Pirates on a pretty cheap contract.

I mentioned Correia as one of the two pitchers wanted the Pirates to sign this offseason, although I expected Correia to sign for closer to $2 million after his poor year in 2010. He has a 91 mph fastball with decent movement and in 2010, added a cutter to an arsenal that also includes a good slider and a mediocre curveball and changeup - all of which he threw at least 10% of the time. The enhanced arsenal helped him to raise his strikeout rate to 7.1 per nine innings, and he also induced a career high 49% ground ball rate. Unfortunately his other rates went up too, and his 1.49 WHIP and 1.2 HR/9 doomed him to a 5.40 ERA and ultimately a spot on the bench for September.

The 2009 season better illustrates Correia's upside as he allowed only a 1.30 WHIP and went 12-11, 3.91. He finished that season with six consecutive quality starts in September (3-1, 1.71) which was even more impressive since his 198 innings exceeded his previous career high by 74.

This isn't a Cliff Lee signing, but I like this move. Let's face it, ace-level pitchers are not coming to Pittsburgh for the amount the Pirates are offering. Correia at least is a guy who can strike batters out, who has had success elsewhere, and who is still in the prime of his career. A #4 starter on most teams, he'll be the Pirates' #2 - putting him in line to start the home opener exactly four months from today.

In a year when Brad Penny, who hasn't pitched since May, is ranked by ESPN as the #21 free agent overall, Correia is not a bad guy to bring in compared to the alternatives. The free agent list has a lot more Suppans than Cliff Lees. Which brings me to...

Scott Olsen Signs One Year Deal
Former Marlins and Nationals starting pitcher Scott Olsen has agreed to a one year deal with the Pirates. Like the Correia signing this will become official when Olsen passes a physical.

Olsen is another former hyped-up prospect who comes to the Pirates after several years of failing. His best season was actually his rookie year way back in 2006 when he went 12-10, 4.04, for Florida, including 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings. He and Dontrelle Willis were going to be Marlins aces for years to come. But since then, Olsen has compiled only a mediocre 5.9 K/9 over the past four seasons while also giving up 1.4 HR/9 as batters hit .288/.352/.478 against him. Yes, the average batter, an average including opposing pitchers, is as good as Andrew McCutchen when they face this guy.

I am not sure why the Pirates constantly sign pitchers who range from bad to terrible. Just in the 2010, Neil Huntington brought in Brian Burres, Sean Gallagher, Wil Ledezma, Jack Taschner, Dana Eveland, Chris Leroux, and Hayden Pennetierre. All of these guys were bad to terrible with all their other teams and bad to terrible here. What about our coaching staff makes Neil think that these guys will all of a sudden be good when they show up in Pittsburgh? I hope Olsen isn't a serious candidate for the five-man rotation, and I fear that he is.

Milledge Era Ends

2010-12-04T13:27:00.004-05:00

I'm late on this news so you've probably already read that the Pirates cut loose Lastings Milledge. They decided at the midnight Thursday deadline not to offer their right fielder a contract, making him a free agent. What a great reaction to one of by better Milledge jokes of all time.

It is a fairly unusual move to cut loose a player entering his first year of arbitration eligibility, since teams still usually get those guys at a significant discount. However, Milledge was not a candidate to start - and a player who can't field, throw, run the bases, or hit right-handed pitching is not terribly valuable on a team's bench.

Coming to Pittsburgh in 2009 in the Joel Hanrahan deal, Milledge hit .291/.333/.395 with four home runs in 58 games that year. He was considered a breakout candidate entering his age 25 season in 2010 and opened the season as the Pirates' #3 hitter. Instead, every aspect of his game declined. He hit .277/.332/.380 with four home runs in 113 games and lost the starting job. Milledge will be 26 in 2011 and his prospect sheen hasn't totally worn off - which means he'll be running from second to third on a grounder to the shortstop for some major league team.

Also non-tendered were infielder Argenis Diaz and pitchers Brian Burres and Donnie Veal. The Pirates traded Adam LaRoche for Diaz in 2009, thinking Diaz could learn to hit. He never did. Non-tendering Diaz is more surprising to me since despite his deficiencies, he could have been a good-fielding utility infielder at the major league minimum. Burres wasn't terrible in 2010 (4-5, 4.99) but there's no reason he should be part of the Pirates' future plans. The Pirates hope to sign Veal who is still recovering form injury.

Cedeno, Karstens Return
On the negative side, the Pirates signed Ronny Cedeno for $2 million for 2011 with a club option for 2012. Shocking, I know. I'm not sure what he did to merit an $875,000 raise. Cedeno is one of those players who really looks like a baseball player, has enough skills to make you think he's a good player if you don't pay attention, but then at the end of the year has had another terrible season. I really wanted a new shortstop and I think we're not getting one.

Jeff Karstens signed a one-year deal for $1.1 million. He's fine as a long reliever/emergency starter but he should not pitch 123 innings as he did in 2010.

4 Former Pirates on HOF Ballot

2010-12-01T07:00:00.005-05:00

The Baseball Writers' Association of America announced their Hall of Fame ballot yesterday. Four Pirates are on it this year - two legitimate candidates and two 16 seeds who will be one and done.

Bert Blyleven enters his 14th year of eligibility. His support in the voting has steadily risen from less than 20% in his first three years of eligibility to 74.2% last year - just short of the required 75%. In January I revisited the trade that brought Blyleven to Pittsburgh and helped win the '79 World Series and defended his Hall of Fame credentials.

Blyleven averaged 229 innings a year for 22 seasons. He was an above average pitcher for 17 of these seasons and was the most valuable pitcher in his league twice according to Baseball Reference. He had the greatest curveball of all time and was the greatest complete game pitcher of his era. His 24 complete games in 1985 have not even been approached since then; no one has completed more than 15 in a season since. He was a big game pitcher, with a 5-1 record and a 2.47 ERA in the postseason and two World Series rings. Only Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, and Steve Carlton struck out more batters than Blyleven's 3701 - which is over 800 more strikeouts than the most of any eligible pitcher not enshrined, Mickey Lolich's 2832.

The main knock on Blyleven's career is the claim that he was a .500 pitcher. Not only is this untrue since he was 37 games over .500, but this well understates his contribution. Baseball Reference estimates he was worth 90 additional wins to his teams over his career - 60 is usually a no-brainer Hall of Fame level. Let's hope 75% of the voters have brains this year.

Dave Parker enters his 15th and final season of eligibility. Parker's case is much different than Blyleven's. Basically there are two ways to rate players - peak value and career value. Parker presents a Hall of Fame case based on his peak value - for five years he was legitimately the best player in baseball. From 1975-79 Parker averaged hitting .321/.377/.532 with 37 doubles, 9 triples, 23 home runs, 98 RBI, 17 steals, and 13 assists in the outfield, while winning three Gold Gloves and finishing in the top three in the MVP race three times. He was the best all-around hitter in the league, the best right fielder, had the best throwing arm, and had outstanding speed on the bases. If you try to come up with how you would arrange those Pirates lineups, Parker is the best option to bat leadoff and the best option to bat fifth. The offensive numbers may not seem legendary in today's context, but they were absolutely gargantuan in the light hitting 1970s.

Parker had a pretty good career afterwards too. He made five more All-Star teams and got votes in the MVP race four more times including Top 5 finishes in 1985-86. He drove in 92 runs in a poor Brewers lineup when he was 39 years old. He was still a feared enough hitter to finish in the top 10 in intentional walks five times after his 34th birthday. He retired with 2712 hits and 1493 RBI.

I think Parker would be in the Hall of Fame already but, of course, he admitted to doing cocaine in the 1980s. Why is it inspirational that Josh Hamilton was a good baseball player, then did cocaine. and then was a good baseball player, but it is shameful that Dave Parker did the same thing? If you evaluate Parker on what he did on the field, he's a Hall of Famer.

Entering the "no chance" realm, Benito Santiago makes his first appearance on the ballot. I posted in February on Santiago, the poster child for the Dave Littlefield regime in Pittsburgh. The former GM brilliantly opted to trade a hard-throwing young reliever in Leo Nunez for the veteran catcher, only to play him for six games in 2005 and then release him despite a $2.25 million salary.

His Pirates tenure notwithstanding, Santiago was a good player who had a good throwing arm, won three Gold Gloves and made five All-Star teams. Unfortunately he was unable to get on base (.307 career OBP) and got injured too much to collect even 2000 hits. He'll get one or two votes and that's it.

And of course, Raul Mondesi also is on the ballot - another bizarre Littlefield-era Pirate. The Pirates signed the 33-year-old outfielder, who was coming off nine consecutive seasons of at least 24 home runs, to a modest $1.15 million contract for 2004. Mondesi was playing every day and hitting a decent .283/.355/.424 on May 7 when he suddenly left the team and went to the Dominican Republic for no apparent reason. He claimed that his wife and family needed him in connection with a $600,000 civil judgment that he had lost. Never mind that he had already earned $65 million in his MLB career. The Pirates were forced to release him, whereupon his agents immediately began negotiating with other clubs. But he never hit again and was out of baseball by the next year. Raul was a good player for ten years from 1994-2003, a power/speed threat, but not even close to a Hall of Famer. He'll get zero votes.

Notes: Rockies Re-Sign De La Rosa

2010-11-30T15:00:00.007-05:00

Odds and ends from the past few days...

Free Agent Update

Jorge de la Rosa (8-7, 4.22), a pitcher who the Pirates reportedly wanted to sign, has returned to the Rockies on a three year, $32 million deal. He would have been a nice piece for the Pirates rotation.
Carl Pavano (17-11, 3.75) is expected to decline the Twins' arbitration offer. With most of the other top starters signed, Pavano now is clearly the second best pitcher available after Cliff Lee.
Kevin Correia (10-10, 5.40), who I previously profiled as a potential 2011 Pirate, declined the Padres' offer of arbitration and is officially a free agent.
The Pirates supposedly are interested in Lance Berkman (.248/.368/.413), as reported by Berkman himself. The first baseman had the worst season of his career last year but still got on base at a good rate. He is a decent candidate for a comeback season and would be an upgrade over Garrett Jones, but I would rather see the Pirates sign either Carlos Pena or Derrek Lee - both of whom are far superior to Berkman in the field.
Former Pirates closer Octavio Dotel, who saved 21 games for Pittsburgh last year, declined the Dodgers' offer of arbitration and is now a free agent. If he were to resign here that would negate the need for a new blog banner for 2011.

Pirates Inquire Into Bartlett
Two days after I profiled Tampa Bay's Jason Bartlett as a possible trade candidate to upgrade the shortstop position, Ken Rosenthal reports that the Pirates are among the teams expressing interest in Bartlett. Tampa Bay wants bullpen help, although some money or prospects would have to be coming this way if the Pirates were to give up their most valuable bullpen piece, Joel Hanrahan, in such a deal. Let's hope some of these rumors are real and this isn't another Vazquez/Monroe/Hinske offseason.

Blog Updates
I linked the 2011 Needs series and an index to all the Great Pirates in History on the left sidebar. Also all players mentioned in the posts will now be linked to their statistics page on Baseball Reference. This should make it easier to get more information on the players, as well as make for a better narrative since I won't have to provide as many statistics if they are easily available.

The 2011 Right Field Job

2010-11-30T07:00:00.002-05:00

Unlike the other offensive positions I highlighted as areas for improvement - catcher and shortstop - the Pirates actually got decent production out of their right fielders in 2010. As in below average, but not laughable. Pirates right fielders combined to hit .262/.330/.428 with 20 home runs, 78 RBI, and 70 runs scored. This is not too far off from the average MLB team which got production of .270/.342/.442, 84 runs, 21 home runs, and 85 RBI.

Unfortunataely, those statistics are misleadingly high and won't be repeated if some combination of the same guys return in 2011. Garrett Jones and Lastings Milledge each compiled an OPS over 100 points higher while playing right field than overall, a trend that won't continue. Another good sign that the Pirates don't have a starting right fielder: they used six different men for at least 15 starts at the position. Jones (46 starts) and Milledge (41) led the way; also getting significant playing time were Ryan Church (23), Delwyn Young (16), Ryan Doumit (17), and John Bowker (15). Baseball Reference reckons that all but Bowker played below average defense, which seems right to my eye.Andrew McCutchen and Jose Tabata will likely combine for around 25 home runs next year in left field and center field, which is fine, but it also means the Pirates need a power bat in right field.

RETURNING

Garrett Jones (.247/.306/.414) will be back in 2011. I think he can be an asset to the team as a backup at first base, left field, right field, and de facto at center field since he could play left with Tabata moving over. It's a long and injury-filled season and a guy in that role usually comes to bat 250 to 350 times, which is fine for Jones. But as a below average hitter and fielder for every position he plays, he just shouldn't be a 654 plate appearance core starter as he was in 2010. He's the type of component player that most playoff teams have - on their bench.

Lastings Milledge (.277/.332/.380) is one of the most maddening players I have ever seen. He is an above average contact hitter but he has mediocre on base skills because he can't or won't work the count. He has excellent speed - I doubt McCutchen would beat him by much in a 100 yard dash if at all - but is an awful baserunner because he constantly gets thrown out on ill-advised attempts to advance to third base. He consistently takes the wrong routes to balls in the outfield, resulting in poor range even though he must be one of the fastest corner outfielders in the league. And he has decent arm strength but a slow release, giving him a below average arm. Lastings Milledge is like preparing a meal of USDA Prime Porterhouse, Potatoes Au Gratin, and Asparagus with Hollandaise Sauce, and pairing it with a 60 dollar bottle of Robert Mondavi Oakville Cabernet Sauvignon, and he is like that meal because that meal should not be a starting outfielder in 2011.

John Bowker (.232/.312/.391) is a great AAA hitter but in 590 MLB plate appearances has never done anything to suggest he should be anything more than a fifth outfielder in the major leagues. With Tabata's ability to play center field, the Pirates can get by with two reserve outfielders who can only play left and right; furthermore, he won't get an arbitration raise like Milledge and he at least looks on the field like a guy who has played baseball before. I would go with Jones as a fourth outfielder/first base backup and Bowker as the fifth outfielder, with Milledge traded or non-tendered.

Ryan Doumit (.251/.331/.406) never is, never was, never will be, and never again should be a right fielder.

OFF THE TEAM

You always knew Ryan Church (.182/.240/.312) would be fine when he was off the Pirates, and you couldn't wait for that day. Sure enough, he hit .265/.345/.490 in Arizona. By the way, I'm done with signing free agents for the Pirates' bench. Use your free agent money for starting players.

Delwyn Young (.236/.286/.414) elected free agency after being removed from the 40-man roster. Young was the Pirates' best pinch hitter for two years, but he also is a mediocre hitter with no secondary skills. He'll catch on somewhere as a 25th man.

FREE AGENTS

There are not many right fielders available via free agency. Jayson Werth isn't signing with Pittsburgh. Lance Berkman is being marketed as a first baseman/corner outfielder but there is a reason he hasn't played the outfield since 2007. However, there are several guys who would be viable starting outfielders and will sign reasonable deals:

Magglio Ordonez will be 37 and should be a DH. That being said, an outfield of Tabata-McCutchen-anybody is still pretty good defensively. As usual, there are too many DH-types available, which will force some of them to take a deal with a National League club. Ordonez would immediately become the Pirates' best on base guy and would also give the Pirates a true cleanup hitter. In 2009-10 he had the best couple of injury-plagued off years this side of Manny Ramirez as he hit .307/.377/.447. I know the Pirates prefer to sign a lefthanded power bat, but a bat is a bat. Age catches up with everyone, but I would be in favor of giving Magglio a one or two-year deal.

Yes, these recommendations may seem like a 2003 blog, but Andruw Jones hit .230/.341/.486 in 2010 with a home run every 14.6 at bats. The Pirates' best power threat, Pedro Alvarez, only hit one every 24 at bats. Jones would also slot immediately into the cleanup spot. He seems like he's been around forever but is only 33 and still plays good defense. The Pirates could do a lot worse, as in, using any right fielder currently on the roster.

Left fielders Pat Burrell (.252/.348/.469), Johnny Damon (.271/.355/.401), Hideki Matsui (.274/.361/.459), and, yes, Manny Ramirez (.298/.409/.460) are all still pretty good hitters and all will sign reasonable contracts - even Ramirez. They're all varying degrees of awful in the field, but the NL's worst offense certainly needs the upgrade. Jose Tabata could slide over to right to accommodate any of them.

It's not ideal to change Tabata's position right now, but for a team that last year (a) tried to use a career minor league catcher as an everyday first baseman, (b) repeatedly used a slow catcher with bad knees as a right fielder, (c) converted a catcher-turned-third baseman into a starting second baseman during his rookie season, (d) started both a poor-hitting backup shortstop and a poor-hitting backup third baseman at first base, and (e) gave away authentic MLB jerseys to Hayden Penn and Dana Eveland, it's not a stretch.

Great Pirates in History: Manny Sanguillen

2010-11-29T07:00:00.009-05:00

Manny Sanguillen was a great contact hitter, a great bad ball hitter, and a Gold Glove catcher if not for Johnny Bench. He was a two-time World Champion who played on all six of the Pirates' 1970s playoff teams.

Manny was signed out of Colon, Panama (also the hometown of Rod Carew and Rennie Stennett) in 1965. By 1967 he was hitting poorly at AAA Columbus but nevertheless got a shot to play in the summer when Pirates starter Jerry May was injured. He hit .271 over the final two months of the season, better than his .258 AAA average, and threw out 8 of 14 base stealers. He returned to Columbus for all of 1968, but the writing was on the wall as May hit only .213 for the Pirates while Sanguillen hit .316 in AAA.

Sanguillen returned to the majors the next year for good as the club that would contend throughout the next decade took shape. He had an excellent first year, starting 107 games and hitting .303. He was the fastest catcher in the league and had six triples and eight stealsa that year. Behing the plate, he again shut down the opposing running game, throwing out 44% of baserunners.

The 1970s Dynasty
The next year, Manny improved his hitting to a .325 average and slugged .444. He threw out 43% of baserunners and caught what was now the third best pitching staff in the league. He finished 11th in the MVP balloting as the Pirates won 89 games and returned to the playoffs for the first time in ten years. Pittsburgh was swept out of the playoffs by the Reds, but the league was on notice.

We don't see many players like this today - the closest I've seen was Coco Crisp's Indians days - but by all accounts the Pirates' catcher played the game with unbridled joy. One wonders if the reason he swung at balls well outside the strike zone was the sheer love of hitting. Even today he is rarely pictured without a smile.

Sanguillen returned with another fine year for the immensely talented 1971 Bucs. Batting seventh in the lineup, he hit .319 and drove in 81 runs. He had his best throwing year, nailing 51% of base stealers (Bench only threw out 42%). He was rewarded with an All-Star appearance and an eighth place finish in the MVP voting. But the best reward, of course, was the seven game World Series victory in which Sanguillen hit .379 and stole two bases as the fleet footed Orioles tried to steal on him only once.

He continued to be a model of consistency for the 1972-75 Pirates, hitting no worse than .282 each year, always with around 65 runs scored and RBI and stellar defense.During those years Sanguillen was present for the worst day in Pirates history, New Year's Eve 1972. His close friend Roberto Clemente was aboard a DC-7 that took off that night to fly relief supplies to earthquake victims in San Juan. The plane exploded and plunged into the ocean less than two minutes after takeoff. Clemente was 38 years old.

"It was almost 10 or 11 when we got the news. We were having a party to count down the New Year in my restaurant and a friend called and said to turn on the radio. He said Roberto's plane had crashed," recalled Clemente friend Rudy Hernandez.

"Manny Sanguillen, the Pirates catcher, and (Clemente) were very close. Manny was in my joint that night. When he heard the news he and a couple of guys jumped in their car and raced out there. They got a small boat and Manny started diving in the water to see if he could find something. There are sharks out there, man. I mean real, man-eating sharks and he didn't care."

The catcher didn't give up the search. He was the only Pirate to miss Clemente's memorial service. He was in a boat helping the diving teams, looking for the body of his friend.

The year following the tragedy was the only time the Pirates didn't win the division from 1970-75. Sanguillen's tenth inning, walk off single clinched the National League East on the last day of the 1974 season. Just an inning earlier, he had scored the winning run to tie the game. Statistically his best season was 1975, when he hit .328, slugged .451 and got on base at a .391 clip - all career highs.

A Shocking Trade
In 1976 however, Sanguillen was injured twice and started only 104 games. He always hit seven or eight home runs but that year had only two. A young catcher named Ed Ott hit .308 in a September cup of coffee. Manager Danny Murtaugh retired after the season, and A's owner Charlie Finley was in a buying mood. So in one of the strangest trades ever, the Pirates shipped their starting catcher to Oakland for $100,000 and manager Chuck Tanner.

To that point, Sanguillen was a .304 hitting catcher who also happened to play some of the best defense in the league. That the Pirates' savvy general manager Joe Brown would give him up shows how great a manager Tanner was. Finley's thoughts: "Managers are a dime a dozen."

The trade makes less sense from the A's perspective. Sanguillen's salary was $145,000 in 1977, so he ended up costing the A's a quarter of a million dollars. Yet the A's spent the entire '77 season selling off their veterans, fielded a lineup of mostly rookies and and finished 63-98. Did Finley really need a playoff tough, veteran catcher for that group?

Apparently he didn't think so, for in the ensuing offseason Sanguillen was shipped back to Pittsburgh for a few spare parts. Sanguillen was no longer healthy enough to catch on a regular basis. Recast as a platoon first baseman, he had his worst year yet hitting only .264.

Champion Again
By 1979, Sanguillen was an occasional pinch hitter who barely played in the field. He got one of the season's bigger hits late in September, when he beat the Phillies with a two out, two-run triple in the ninth inning. It was the last triple of the old catcher's career.

Sanguillen was on the playoff roster but didn't bat at all in the NLCS. But of course, he got one final big hit for the Pirates. It came in Game 2 of the 1979 World Series, tied 2-2 in the top of the ninth inning with the Pirates already down 1-0 in games. Don Stanhouse was pitching for the Orioles and there were two outs with men on first and second. In one of the biggest at bats of the Series, Sanguillen delivered a game winning single to right field. The Pirates lost three of the first four games of that Series, so they might have been swept without Sanguillen's hit.

After another year of pinch hitting in 1980, Sanguillen's career was over. But it was a remarkable one. Over 12 years in Pittsburgh, eight as a starter, he hit .299 with 1343 hits. He made three All-Star teams, got votes in the MVP race four times, and won six division titles and two championships. If not for Bench he would have certainly won three Gold Gloves (1970-72) and potentially a few others.

Manny Sanguillen was not a perfect player. He never walked, he grounded into too many double plays, and he never could use his speed to be an effective base stealer. His career on base percentage was only 30 points higher than his batting average. But he was an outstanding starting catcher for the greatest Pirates dynasty ever and a World Champion, and for that he is truly a Great Pirate in History.

The 2011 Shortstop Job

2010-11-27T21:13:00.008-05:00

The Pirates got below average production from all but two offensive positions in 2010, but shortstop was one of the most glaring weaknesses. Pirates shortstops compiled a whopping 45 runs scored and 45 RBI as they hit .254/.294/.366 overall. Ronny Cedeno (132 starts) was the main culprit, but Bobby Crosby (22) and Argenis Diaz (8) were no better.

John Russell said in September that Ronny Cedeno would return as starting shortstop in 2011. Little did Russell know that he would not return as starting manager in 2011. It's hard to imagine that the Pirates can't do better from the shortstop spot, so let's look at the options.

RETURNING
No matter how many times FSN replayed his routine fielding plays in slow motion, Ronny Cedeno (.256/.293/.382) had a terrible year in 2010. Is there a reason for a guy who generates 8 home runs all season to swing at every pitch, to the tune of 23 walks versus 106 strikeouts? Both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference had Cedeno with negative defensive value. Yet 2010 was actually Cedeno's career year. He made $1.125 million and is due an arbitration raise. If the Pirates are serious about fielding a winning team, they'll non-tender Cedeno, let him leave in free agency and do something else.

Argenis Diaz (.242/.306/.273) already fields at a major league level but hits like, well, Ronny Cedeno. He'll only be 24 in 2011 and needs to play every day at Indianapolis to develop his hitting skills. If that doesn't happen, he'll end up learning to play second and third base in order to stick in the majors as a utility infielder.

OFF THE TEAM
If Cedeno was bad, Bobby Crosby (.224/.301/.295) was worse. He briefly "won" the shortstop job from Cedeno, then made eight errors in only 22 games at shortstop and was traded to Arizona despite his amazing ability to play poor defense at every infield position. The Diamondbacks released him after nine games. He'll probably get a minor league contract from somebody.

FREE AGENTS
There's no chance of Derek Jeter joining the Pirates. Free agents available are aging guys like Miguel Tejada, Edgar Renteria and Orlando Cabrera. Formerly outstanding shortstops, these guys have declined so much that for various reasons they really shouldn't even be starters in 2011. There's only one legitimate option left on the free agent market.

Juan Uribe (.248/.310/.440) will likely look for a multiyear deal entering his age 31 season. Uribe is an above average fielder at second base, third base, and shortstop. Offensively, he doesn't get on base enough but has four seasons of over 20 home runs. And his 45 walks in 2010, while low, were twice Cedeno's total. At something like $3-3.5 million a year, Uribe seems like a worthwhile investment considering Ronny Cedeno will likely get nearly $2 million if he's allowed to arbitration.

TRADE MARKET
With the free agent market pretty barren, a trade might be a better option. Two AL East teams want to make room for prospects and are making pretty good, established starters available. Both will be free agents after 2011 and might be available for a minimal return due to their salaries.

Marco Scutaro (.275/.333/.388) has scored 100 and 92 runs over the last two seasons while playing an excellent shortstop. While 2009 looks like a career year for Scutaro, he;s been a solid hitter every year since 2006. He would certainly be one of the better #7 or #8 hitters in the National league, and isn't a joke at the leadoff spot either. He's due to make $5 million in 2011, which is money the Red Sox want off the books when Jed Lowrie can play every day for $450,000.

Slowed by injuries, Jason Bartlett (.254/.324/.350) had an off year in 2010. He still has a career .345 OBP, is an excellent baserunner and is only a year removed from his career year when he hit .320/.389/.490. Bartlett will only be 31 and is not as good as Scutaro or Uribe defensively, but would still be an upgrade over Ronny Cedeno. He's arbitration eligible and will get a raise from his 2010 salary of $4 million.

Duke, LaRoche, Young Released

2010-11-20T07:00:00.001-05:00

The Pirates cut ties with one of their longest tenured players yesterday, as they designated lefthanded starter Zach Duke for assignment. Bench players Delwyn Young and Andy LaRoche were also designated, and all three will likely become free agents.

Starting in 2002, Duke went 42-16 with a 2.38 ERA in four minor league seasons to establish himself as a top prospect. He was called up in July '05 and went 8-2, 1.81 that year, finishing fifth in Rookie of the Year voting. The following year, Duke was a league average pitcher as he went 10-15, 4.47, throwing 215 innings. That was a solid age 23 season, but it was also one he would never improve on. He looked to have put things together in 2009, when he had a 3.38 ERA and 10 wins in late August, but he imploded down the stretch that year and then was hit hard in almost every start in 2010. Overall he went 45-70, 4.54, giving up nearly 11 hits per nine innings over his six years in Pittsburgh.

I really enjoyed watching Zach Duke on nights when he was on. There were always men on base, and opposing hitters would struggle mightily to make solid contact off his seemingly hittable stuff. First-and-third, one out rallies would end in nothing, and frustrated hitters would come back hacking inning after inning, only to end the night having scored only two runs although only two batters struck out. And he could be unhittable too: Duke's masterpiece four hit shutout at the '09 home opener remains one of the two or three best pitched games I've seen in person.

In 2011, his final year of arbitration, Zach Duke would have made $5 million. The Pirates can bring in a better pitcher for the same amount. But for a 20th round pick to even make 159 starts by age 27, including two Opening Day starts, is not bad at all. I'm glad he won his final home start here in Pittsburgh. Like John Russell, Duke had to go but I wish him the best. Someone will sign him as a fifth starter in 2011.

Delwyn Young's .258/.317/.393 career line actually isn't bad for a bench bat who can play infield and outfield positions. Of course, he couldn't play any of those positions well. He's too good for AAA but has no place on a contending MLB team. Someone will give him a bench job in 2011.

Andy LaRoche was a credible third baseman in 2009; not so much in 2008 and 2010. He now has a career .224/.304/.338 batting line, and also had negative defensive value this season. For a guy who can only play one position, that spells a minor league job in 2011.

Odds and Ends: de la Rosa, Oliver

2010-11-18T10:59:00.011-05:00

Other than the ability to buy Pumpkin Spice Cappucino at gas stations, there's pretty much nothing to recommend about November. The baseball news is mostly of the "unwarranted speculation" variety. Here is the rest of this week's Pirates news:

Pirates Pursuing De La Rosa
The Pirates are apparently one of three front runners to sign starting pitcher Jorge de la Rosa although at least seven teams are trying to sign the righthander. Others in contention are the Orioles and Nationals. MLB Trade Rumors listed de la Rosa as the #12 free agent available this offseason, and the #3 starting pitcher (#2 now that Hiroki Kuroda has resigned with the Dodgers).

de la Rosa is a power pitcher who went 34-24, 4.49 for Colorado over the past three years and averaged a strikeout an inning. Those are excellent K numbers for a starting pitcher, and the ERA is very good for Coors Field as well. He dials it up with a 93-94 mph fastball bust his out pitches are a slider and changeup which induced a 52% ground ball ratio last year.

If the finalists truly are Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Washington, we might actually have the advantage. Given the Nationals' awful infield defense, I can't imagine a free agent ground ball pitcher signing with Washington unless the price really was right. And I can't imagine de la Rosa would be better off in the AL East than in the NL Central. Nevertheless, enough teams need pitching that this falls under the "I'll believe it when I see it" category.

Al Oliver A HOF Finalist
Former Pirates outfielder/first baseman Al Oliver was announced as one of 12 Hall of Fame candidates for the upcoming Veterans Committee vote. Results will be released in a few weeks.

Oliver was one of the top contact hitters in baseball for most of his career, including nine consecutive .300 hitting seasons from 1976-84. He started on five first place Pirates teams including the 1971 World Champions, and ended his career with 2743 hits and a .303 batting average along with 529 doubles, 77 triples and 219 home runs - excellent numbers for a player who played in a pitching/defense dominated era. 1490 of those hits were in a Pirates uniform before he was traded in the Bert Blyleven deal.

Vada Pinson is the only eligible player with more hits than Oliver who has not been inducted. The problem with Oliver's candidacy is that every other aspect of his game hurts him: he wasn't a good fielder (despite starting in center field here for six years), he hardly walked at all, he grounded into a lot of double plays, and he didn't steal many bases and got caught almost as much as he was successful. Only one of his skills was Hall of Fame caliber, which isn't enough.

Kratz Gone
Catcher Erik Kratz signed with the Phillies, where he'll catch at AAA Lehigh Valley and provide depth in case a major league catcher gets injured. Kratz hit .274/.380/.496 for Indianapolis last year. He also came up to Pittsburgh for a while during one of the several Ryan Doumit injuries. Behind the plate he looked like Johnny Bench in comparison to Doumit, and backed it up by throwing out four of seven base stealers. The Pirates will need to look for another strong AAA catcher given that both Chris Snyder and Ryan Doumit are injury-prone.

No Coaching News Yet
Clint Hurdle did not insist on the right to choose his entire coaching staff, and the Pirates did not give it. This means that it's up in the air whether Tony Beasley will be back as third base coach. I don't see why he would be though. How many outs were made between second and third last year? That is Beasley's responsibility. It's true that he was coaching third base during the "two men on third" debacle which cost the Pirates a game. Things like that can't happen on the 2011 WFC team. There is no shortage of good baseball men who can coach third base.

Clint Hurdle Hired

2010-11-14T18:45:00.005-05:00

The Pirates got their man today, hiring Clint Hurdle to be their new manager. The news will be officially announced at a press conference tomorrow. He had been offered a second interview for the Mets job but apparently preferred the bird in hand.

This is great news for Pirates fans. Hurdle is well known as a great teacher of young hitters, and he should be great for the Walker/McCutchen/Tabata/Alvarez group. Hurdle's approach stresses plate discipline, something all those hitters but McCutchen need to improve. For example, the 2009 Rangers finished 12th in the American League in walks and first in strikeouts. Hurdle took over as hitting coach in 2010 and the Rangers finished eighth in walks and 11th in strikeouts. The result was adding 18 more points of on base percentage and an improvement from seventh to fourth in runs scored.

The Pirates offense needs to get much better at walking as well. The Pirates drew only 453 walks in 2010, an unacceptably low number that ranked 15th in the National League. McCutchen was the only player who batted more than 40 times with an on base percentage above .350. But the regular players were all under 30, and all are capable of walking more. For example, Alvarez is always going to strike out a lot, but that would be fine if he's walking a lot too. Ronny Cedeno struck out 106 times and walked 23 times. Does his eight home run power justify hacking at every pitch? It is much easier for a hitter to improve his walk rate than to improve his power or contact. Clint Hurdle can help these hitters to do that. By all accounts he is a tremendously hard worker who will work with each hitter individually to get the most out of their talents.

Clint Hurdle also has experience in making the World Series with a team that isn't very good. That's going to be really key in Pittsburgh too. Check out the lineup the Rockies fielded in Game 1 of the 2007 World Series:

Wily Taveras cf
Kazuo Matsui 2b
Matt Holliday lf
Todd Helton 1b
Garrett Atkins 3b
Brad Hawpe rf
Troy Tulowitzki ss
Yorvit Torrealba c
Ryan Spilborghs dh
Jeff Francis p

Now obviously there are three stars in Holliday, Helton and Tulowitzki, but who are the rest of these guys? Atkins and Hawpe could only hit when Clint Hurdle was managing them, and the rest could never hit. Jeff Francis is your ace pitcher for a pennant winning team? Hurdle had to be doing something right to win 21 of 22 games and reach the World Series with this crew.

Obviously, John Russell was not the reason the Pirates have been a bad team recently. Nevertheless I am quite happy to have Clint Hurdle on board. It's a step forward for the entire Pirates organization.

The 2011 First Base Job

2010-11-10T15:06:00.003-05:00

The Pirates had a bad lineup in 2010, and the first base position was the biggest reason. Pirates first basemen hit an abysmal .227/.277/.370 on the year. Garrett Jones (106 starts) and Jeff Clement (33) were the primary culprits, and to make matters worse neither man fielded well either. Another sign things were bad - Steven Pearce, Bobby Crosby, John Bowker, Ryan Doumit and Andy LaRoche all saw time at the position.

I advocated during the season that Jones should play all year to see what he's capable of. It turns out he's capable of a reserve 1B/LF/RF role. That's fine, but it means the Pirates need to bring in a new starting first baseman. Like I said with pitching, there's no trade bait worth trading so that means signing a free agent.

Remember Adam LaRoche? The perennial .270 hitting, 85 RBI first baseman who so many fans hated? That kind of production would sure seem nice in comparison. It's also the minimum a major league team can get by with.

RETURNING
Garrett Jones (247/.306/.414) simply did not hit enough to start at first base next year. I suspect the Pirates will put him in a platoon role, but he also can't field at first base. Jones hit .215/.266/.392 in the second half - those are bad enough numbers to lose the job.

Steven Pearce (.295/.395/.414) hit well and fielded passably for a few weeks before undergoing season-ending surgery. Yet he never hit well in MLB before and, of course, is coming off surgery. A Pearce/Jones platoon would be the most bullshit possible scenario for 2010.

OFF THE TEAM
Jeff Clement (.201/.237/.368) was outrighted to Indianapolis and can elect free agency. His performance was downright terrible and I'd be shocked to see him in a Pirates uniform again. Expecting Clement to both learn a new position and learn to hit breaking balls, just by placing him on the field and in the lineup, was a pretty dumb decision.

MY FREE AGENT PICKS
Adam LaRoche is a free agent and remains a good option, but I'd be shocked to see him come back. Paul Konerko, Aubrey Huff, and Adam Dunn will be out of the Pirates' price range. Here are the two guys who I would look to sign:

Carlos Pena (.196/.325/.407) hits free agency at the worst possible time as he embarassingly hit below .200 over a full season. He's a Scott Boras client, and Boras typically seeks one-year deals for guys coming off career-worst years to rebuild their value. Remember, Pena is only one year removed from a season in which he led the American League in home runs despite missing a month of the season. He's a solid defensive first baseman with 144 home runs in the past four years. I'm guessing he signs a one-year deal worth around $7.5 million.

Derrek Lee (.260/.347/.428) played poorly for the Cubs but rebounded to hit very well down the stretch for the Braves, helping them to the NL wild card. 2010 was also Lee's career worst year, and I think it's a better bargain to expect a guy to rebound from his career worst year than repeat his career year (Konerko, Huff). He's a former Gold Glover and entering his age 35 season, still is not a liability in the field. There's no reason to think he can't score and drive in 90 runs in 2011 while playing average defense. I think he'll settle for a one-year deal worth around $6 million.

Hurdle interviews with Mets

2010-11-10T11:28:00.010-05:00

Rangers hitting coach Clint Hurdle will talk with the Mets today about their open managerial job. I expect that the Pirates job is Hurdle's if he wants it. However, if Hurdle gets offered the Mets job he almost certainly will decline the Pirates job. Considering there are two finalists, and using my powers of reasoning, that would leave Jeff Banister as the Pirates manager.

I'm on record as supporting Hurdle as the choice to be the new Pirates manager. He took the 2007 Rockies to the World Series with no starting pitching. That's a task not unlike what I would hope he could accomplish with the 2011 Pirates, although it's possible the '07 Rockies had more Heltons and Hollidays on their side.

Obviously the Mets job would be more attractive, given the difference between a $130 million payroll and a $40 million payroll. However, it's far from a foregone conclusion that Hurdle would get the Mets job. They've interviewed at least four internal and four external candidates. I'll keep you posted.

Great Pirates in History: Jay Bell

2010-11-09T19:46:00.007-05:00

Jay Bell was a quintessential shortstop of his era: durable, steady in the field, able to advance runners and bunt out of the #2 hole, and possessing doubles power, speed and on base ability. The Bonilla-Bonds-Van Slyke outfield is well remembered, but Bell was a no less essential player to the 1990-92 division champions.

Early Days
The Twins drafted Bell with the eighth overall pick in 1984 as a high school shortstop out of Florida. He was hitting well in A ball the next year when Minnesota shipped him to Cleveland in a package for another Great Pirate in History, Bert Blyleven. In parts of three seasons with the Tribe, Bell hit only .223/.288/.323 and struggled on defense. Cleveland gave up on their 22-year-old, former top 10 pick, shipping him to the Pirates for fellow poor hitting infielders, Felix Fermin and Denny Gonzalez.

Bell was the Opening Day shortstop in '89 but after a brutal 1-for-20 start, the Pirates quickly sent him back to AAA Buffalo for more seasoning.He hit well in the minors, as he always had, and was starting again in the big leagues by late July. He hit well enough this time to end up in the #2 spot in the lineup - a spot he wouldn't relinquish for seven years. Jim Leyland's group was 18 games below .500 when Bell became a starter but finished 35-31 with him in the lineup. The iconic early '90s lineup had finally come together.

Glory Years
The 1990-91 Pirates went with Bell batting second in front of Van Slyke, Bonilla and Bonds, Bell's double play partner Jose Lind hitting eighth, and a bevy of platoons around them. What had been a mediocre lineup became the league's best.

In 1990, Bell led all NL shortstops with 93 runs and would have scored 100, had he not also broken the an 84-year-old record with 39 sacrifice bunts, still the best in franchise history. He walked 65 times and while he never had great range in the field, used positioning and good double play skills to play an above average shortstop. The following year, he scored 96 more times and again led the league with 30 sacrifice bunts. This time he added power, with 16 home runs among his 56 extra base hits. Playing even better defense now, Bell finished 12th in the '91 MVP voting.

He declined a bit at the plate in '92 but still scored 87 runs. During those seasons, unlike a certain star left fielder, Bell turned things on during the playoffs, hitting .282/.356/.462. Bell was the Pirates' player representative and one of their clubhouse leaders throughout that stretch.

The Pirates inexplicably broke up their first place club for 1993. Bell, the 11th highest paid player on the 1992 team, was now the second highest paid player on the team at $3 million. It was a sad season for the Pirates but a great one for Bell, who had a career year at the plate and in the infield. Playing in 154 games, Bell was on base constantly with 187 hits and another 77 walks. He finished with a .310/.392/.437 batting line and scored 102 runs despite having no power hitters behind him in the lineup. That earned him a Silver Slugger award. He also led the league in putouts, assists, and fielding percentage, and became the first NL shortstop not named Ozzie Smith to win a Gold Glove in 14 years.

Three and Out
In 1994, the Pirates fielded a sorry offense that finished last in the league in runs. Nevertheless, Bell was on a 97 run pace when the strike came and hit a remarkable 35 doubles in only 110 games. Hitting .276/.353/.441, he turned in his second best offensive season in Pittsburgh.

The '95 Pirates slumped to 58-86 as Bell, Orlando Merced and Jeff King were now the only links to the glory years which ended only three seasons before. Bell slumped to .262/.336/.404. In 1996, playing for another poor team, he .250/.323/.391. The already penny-pinching Pirates overlooked his defensive value and concluded that Jay Bell could no longer be a Pirate, not at a salary that had now risen to $5 million a year.

Pittsburgh promptly shipped the right side of their infield - Bell and Jeff King - to the Royals. King was a #3 hitter who had just hit 30 home runs and driven in 111 runs in 1996. Bell was a Gold Glove shortstop who over the last seven years had a .341 on base percentage and averaged 31 doubles and 84 runs scored a season, even though two of those seasons were strike shortened.For both players the Pirates got Joe Randa - an average player who they thought enough of to lose in the expansion draft a year later - and three pitchers who combined to win three MLB games over the rest of their careers.

"Yet another reason the Pirates had a lot of fans," a fan wrote to the Post-Gazette. "Trading Jay Bell and Keff King is the ultimate slap in the face to the fans," wrote another.

Legacy
The 1997 Pirates famously stayed in the pennant race until the season's final weekend despite not having any star players. Yet it didn't need to be like that. Now playing in Kansas City, King had 84 runs scored, 28 home runs, 112 RBI, 89 walks and 16 steals. Bell rebounded with 89 runs scored, 21 home runs, 92 RBI, 71 walks and 10 steals. Pittsburgh finished five games out of first playing Joe Randa, Kevin Polcovich, Dale Sveum and Kevin Elster at Bell and King's vacated positions. Pirates fandom might not be that different right now if this trade hadn't gone down. But there would be quite a few more fans who could remember playoff baseball, and at least we wouldn't be talking about a record number of losing seasons.

Jay Bell had several more good years in Arizona, culminating in a World Series ring in 2001. He was the heart and soul of the only good Pirates teams many of us can remember, and for that he is a Great Pirate in History.

Ledezma Re-Signed; Manager Search Down To Two

2010-11-03T20:08:00.006-04:00

Hurdle, Banister are the finalists for manager
Former Rockies manager Clint Hurdle, recently profiled on this very site, will be interviewed tomorrow but is already one of two finalists for the Pirates job. Expect the Pirates to sign him before Sunday, which is the first day negotiations with free agents can begin. It would be a big disadvantage to not have a leader in place for free agent negotiations.

The other finalist is Jeff Banister, who was most recently the Pirates bench coach. Jeff had an astounding 1.000 career batting average for the Pirates, going 1-for-1 for the 1991 squad. But he hasn't managed since 1998 and even then it was at the AA level. It's hard for me to believe he has a great chance at the job - if the Pirates wanted him to manage the team they could have given him the job two weeks ago after he interviewed for it.

What would it take to not be re-signed?
The Pirates got off to an inauspicious start to this offseason by re-signing reliever Wil Ledezma. No details were released, but let's hope this contract is of the minor league variety.

Ledezma went 0-3 with a 6.86 ERA in 27 games for the Pirates. He was brought up to replace Javier Lopez as the lefty specialist out of the bullpen, but got absolutely torched by opposing lefties who put up a batting line of .367/.424/.533. He's put up a 5.26 career ERA, and has a career WHIP identical to last year's 1.58.

Ledezma is a good minor league pitcher, but there's no reason to think at age 29 that he's talented enough to be on a big league staff. No details were released, but let's hope this one was a minor league contract.

Four Cuts Made
Outfielder Brandon Moss and pitchers Sean Gallagher, Steven Jackson and Justin Thomas were all outrighted to AAA. They can all become minor league free agents. Maybe the Pirates will resign one or two of these guys, but none have shown any indication of being major league ballplayers. The roster is down to 38 men after these moves, meaning the Pirates weren't unbelievably anxious to hang on to any of them. Brandon Moss, for one, proved once again in September that he can't hit major league pitching. All four will get AAA contracts somewhere.

Dotel Becomes A Free Agent
Former Pirate closer Octavio Dotel, still featured in the blog's title bar to provide a link to the glory days of last July, is a free agent. The Rockies declined his option as expected.

Dotel pitched well here, going 2-2 with a 4.28 ERA and 21 saves while racking up strikeouts. Overall on the season he appeared in 68 games, gave up only 52 hits in 64 innings, K'd 75 batters and walked 32. Those are basically the same numbers he's always put up, and I would be open to bringing him back in 2011.

Is Clint Hurdle The Pirates Guy?

2010-11-02T13:36:00.003-04:00

The Pirates, conspicuously silent for two weeks, plan to interview Clint Hurdle for their open manager job.

Hurdle worked as the Texas Rangers hitting coach this year, but is more familiar from his eight years managing the Rockies. He had a losing record in seven of those years and compiled an overall record of 534-625. But in the one winning year, 2007, the Rockies advanced to the World Series by winning seven straight games in the postseason.

He must have been doing something right because the Rockies' four top starters that year were Jeff Francis, Aaron Cook, Josh Fogg, and Jason Hirsh. Reaching the playoffs, let alone the World Series, with that kind of rotation requires (a) some knowledge of how to manage a pitching staff, and (b) some knowledge of who Jason Hirsh even is.

Other than an irrational love of the intentional walk, Hurdle is a pretty sound tactician. He also is known for working well with young hitters - players including Troy Tulowitzki and Matt Holliday developed on his watch. There are also a few guys - Garrett Atkins is one - who all of a sudden couldn't hit once Hurdle was gone.

Obviously it seems like the Pirates are very interested in Hurdle, or they wouldn't have waited weeks for the Rangers to be eliminated in order to talk to him. I'll have an update if any other news comes out.