2011 Position Preview: Starting Pitchers

The Pirates made one of the two moves I wanted to bolster their starting staff this season when they signed Kevin Correia to a two year, $8 million contract. Correia would be a back end starter almost anywhere else, but based on the spring rotation I expect him to take the Wrigley Field mound on Opening Day, April 1.

Correia is a righthander whose best pitches are a 90 mph fastball with movement and an 85 mph slider. He also mixes in a cutter, a slow curveball and a changeup. After a few inconsistent years in a swingman role, Correia had a breakout season in 2009. Last year he was hurt by the home run and posted the highest ERA of all the Padres' starters.

2008: 110 IP, 3-8, 6.05, 1.71 WHIP, 5.4 K/9
2009: 198 IP, 12-11, 3.91, 1.30 WHIP, 6.5 K/9
2010: 145 IP, 10-10, 5.40, 1.49 WHIP, 7.1 K/9

While his ERA looked bad last year, I'm not too concerned for a few reasons. Correia exceeded his career high in innings by 53 in 2009 while throwing 30% sliders. A huge jump in innings with a high percentage of sliders almost always leads to fatigue the following year. Sure enough, last year Correia had respectable stats (10-7, 4.63) in mid-August before apparently hitting a wall. One year later and at only 30 years old, Correia's arm should be more rested - especially since he threw only 15% sliders last year.

Correia's peripherals are encouraging too. In 2010, he posted his highest ever strikeout rate and also his highest ever ground ball rate, 49%. That ground ball rate makes his home run rate of 1.24 per nine innings look like bad luck. He'll also do better this year if he relies more on the slider, his best pitch. This year I'm expecting Correia to bounce back with a 4.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 7 K/9 over 190 innings.

#2 Starter: Paul Maholm
The Pirates' second longest tenured player, Maholm will hope to rebound from a very disappointing year. He had a 4.03 ERA after shutting out the Astros on three hits in July, then was rocked for a 6.81 ERA the rest of the season. I think he'll be the #2 starter this year, which slots him to pitch the home opener on Thursday, April 7.

2008: 206 IP, 9-9, 3.71, 1.28 WHIP, 6.1 K/9
2009: 195 IP, 8-9, 4.44, 1.44 WHIP, 5.5 K/9
2010: 185 IP, 9-15, 5.10, 1.57 WHIP, 5 K/9

I want to see Maholm succeed as much as anyone, but his falling strikeout numbers are cause for concern. While the lefthander did well with his slider and curveball, his 88 mph fastball looked like batting practice to MLB hitters in 2010. Batters hit .303/.360/.452 against Maholm on the year. Even if he can keep home run totals low, the odds of Maholm putting up a sub-4.00 ERA as he did in 2008 look slim to me. In 2011 I'm expecting a 4.90 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 5 K/9 over 190 innings.

#3 Starter: James McDonald
After coming to Pittsburgh in the Octavio Dotel deal, McDonald was nothing short of a revelation. He relied mainly on a 92 mph fastball which was easily the best on the starting staff, but his out pitch was a 77 mph curveball that routinely made accomplished hitters look stupid. McDonald had a 3.52 ERA for the Pirates - 2.31 in September - and accomplished the rare feat of increasing his strikeout rate despite moving from the bullpen to starting.

2008: 6 IP, 0-0, 0.00, 1.00 WHIP, 3 K/9
2009: 63 IP, 5-5, 4.00, 1.38 WHIP, 7.7 K/9
2010: 72 IP, 4-6, 4.02, 1.30 WHIP, 8.5 K/9

This season, I'm expecting McDonald to again be the Pirates' best pitcher. He's 26 and unlike most pitchers coming off breakout years, should continue to be durable since he doesn't use a slider and has never thrown more than 142 innings in a season. I'm counting on 175 innings with a 3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 8.3 K/9.

#4 Starter: Ross Ohlendorf
My associate McMillen got together a group of people last year to wear orange in the bleachers for Ohlendorf's starts in honor of his alma mater, Princeton. At the first game the group was me with an orange shirt in section 135, McMillen with an orange shirt in 138, and zero other people who even happened to be wearing orange. It was a real microcosm of Ross's season, which was undoubtedly the best ever for a starter with just one win.

2008: 63 IP, 1-4, 6.46, 1.87 WHIP, 7 K/9
2009: 177 IP, 11-10, 3.92, 1.23 WHIP, 6 K/9
2010: 108 IP, 1-11, 4.07, 1.39 WHIP, 6.6 K/9

Despite the one win season, Ohlendorf pitched well enough that he's now an established major league starter rather than a one year wonder. At 28, he shouldn't lose anything from his 91 mph fastball and can continue to improve his excellent slider. I expect Ross Ohlendorf to be effective again and healthy this year: a 3.90 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 6.5 K/9 in 175 innings.

There are several candidates for the fifth starter spot, so I'll save those for another day. I have confidence in three of Pittsburgh's top four starters, but we'll need Paul Maholm to return to form if the Pirates are to have a good rotation this season.

Pirates Sign Kevin Correia

Good news early Tuesday morning as the Pirates signed righthanded pitcher Kevin Correia to a two-year deal worth $8 million.

Entering his age 30 season, Correia has been hit or miss - his last five ERAs are 3.49, 3.45, 6.05, 3.91 and 5.40. Obviously there's some talent there, but the inconsistency causes him to drop to the Pirates on a pretty cheap contract.

I mentioned Correia as one of the two pitchers wanted the Pirates to sign this offseason, although I expected Correia to sign for closer to $2 million after his poor year in 2010. He has a 91 mph fastball with decent movement and in 2010, added a cutter to an arsenal that also includes a good slider and a mediocre curveball and changeup - all of which he threw at least 10% of the time. The enhanced arsenal helped him to raise his strikeout rate to 7.1 per nine innings, and he also induced a career high 49% ground ball rate. Unfortunately his other rates went up too, and his 1.49 WHIP and 1.2 HR/9 doomed him to a 5.40 ERA and ultimately a spot on the bench for September.

The 2009 season better illustrates Correia's upside as he allowed only a 1.30 WHIP and went 12-11, 3.91. He finished that season with six consecutive quality starts in September (3-1, 1.71) which was even more impressive since his 198 innings exceeded his previous career high by 74.

This isn't a Cliff Lee signing, but I like this move. Let's face it, ace-level pitchers are not coming to Pittsburgh for the amount the Pirates are offering. Correia at least is a guy who can strike batters out, who has had success elsewhere, and who is still in the prime of his career. A #4 starter on most teams, he'll be the Pirates' #2 - putting him in line to start the home opener exactly four months from today.

In a year when Brad Penny, who hasn't pitched since May, is ranked by ESPN as the #21 free agent overall, Correia is not a bad guy to bring in compared to the alternatives. The free agent list has a lot more Suppans than Cliff Lees. Which brings me to...

Scott Olsen Signs One Year Deal
Former Marlins and Nationals starting pitcher Scott Olsen has agreed to a one year deal with the Pirates. Like the Correia signing this will become official when Olsen passes a physical.

Olsen is another former hyped-up prospect who comes to the Pirates after several years of failing. His best season was actually his rookie year way back in 2006 when he went 12-10, 4.04, for Florida, including 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings. He and Dontrelle Willis were going to be Marlins aces for years to come. But since then, Olsen has compiled only a mediocre 5.9 K/9 over the past four seasons while also giving up 1.4 HR/9 as batters hit .288/.352/.478 against him. Yes, the average batter, an average including opposing pitchers, is as good as Andrew McCutchen when they face this guy.

I am not sure why the Pirates constantly sign pitchers who range from bad to terrible. Just in the 2010, Neil Huntington brought in Brian Burres, Sean Gallagher, Wil Ledezma, Jack Taschner, Dana Eveland, Chris Leroux, and Hayden Pennetierre. All of these guys were bad to terrible with all their other teams and bad to terrible here. What about our coaching staff makes Neil think that these guys will all of a sudden be good when they show up in Pittsburgh? I hope Olsen isn't a serious candidate for the five-man rotation, and I fear that he is.