2011 Position Preview: Left Field

After he was called up from Indianapolis in June, Jose Tabata started 102 of the 104 remaining games for the Pirates. Barring injury he'll be in left field virtually every day again in 2011.

In his age 21 season, Tabata proved he can hit major league pitching and play a great left field. That earned him a seventh place finish in Rookie of the Year voting. He needs to work on plate discipline, and it would be nice if he developed a bit more power. Still, it was a very impressive debut for one of the better prospects we've seen in recent years.

2010: 102 games, .299/.346/.400, 61 Runs, 4 HR, 35 RBI, 19 SB

Those are fourth outfielder numbers for a player in his prime, but they're absolutely great for a 21-year-old. I'm not sure Tabata will be a lot better in 2011 - there's almost always a continuing adjustment period in the second year - but Tabata has hit at every level of the minor leagues so I don't see why he can't put up similar numbers over a full season. I am also expecting a bit of development in power. Between AAA and MLB he had 47 extra base hits last year, only seven of which were home runs.

For 2011 I am looking for Tabata to hit .290/.350/.420 with 100 runs, 9 home runs, 55 RBI, and 35 steals. That's a good #2 hitter and a great age 22 season.

A Glimpse of the Future?

The thought occurred to me that a comatose Pirates fan - upon waking up today to read the first third of last night's box score - would see the first third of the lineup for a 90+ win team.In fact considering this year's leaguewide offensive downturn, those season numbers are much better than they look.

There's really no way to discount these numbers. Walker is 24, McCutchen is 23, and Tabata is 22. Obviously the top third of the lineup isn't going to score and drive in eight runs every day, but is there any reason to think that days like this won't happen in 2012? 2014?

This may be, as many sources have argued, the worst Pirates team ever. Don't let that discount the fact that three of the four most significant players on the roster have put up star-level performances - at ages when many valuable MLB players throughout history were still in the minor leagues. Many teams have won championships with a 1-2-3 that did not perform this well.

As a fan, would you rather have the 2007 Pirates Neil Huntington inherited, or the 2010 Pirates? In '07 the team was nominally better on the field but was primarily composed of middling veterans with no chance of being above average players over the next few years. Now the Pirates have the core of a championship level team. The Pirates' record this year is primarily due to unbelievably awful seasons by guys who (hopefully) won't be here next year.

Pedro Alvarez is another player who is almost certain to improve. It's also difficult for any team to do worse at the remaining positions than the 2010 Pirates have done. It would not surprise me if next year's club is stronger at every position.

With four young, improving and above average hitters, the Pirates can field a legitimately good lineup for 2011 with a few moderately priced free agent acquisitions. I hope that happens.

Revisiting the Top 20 Prospects - Part I

PITTSBURGH, Pa. / July 13, 2010

To an increasing number of fans, it is seeming like this blog's prediction of a World Series title in 2010 might not be correct. For those of you already looking to the future, let's take a look at how the Pirates' top prospects did in the first half of the year.

Of course, the minor league season ends Labor Day weekend so each team is well over halfway through the year.

There are a lot of prospect rankings. I am using John Sickels' Top 20 rankings, which notably like most lists didn't rank Neil Walker at all. Here are grades for the top 10, the rest will be in another post. The grades are for how well these players done this year, not how good of a prospect they are overall.

1. Pedro Alvarez - B-
Alvarez hit .277/.363/.533 at Indianapolis earning a major league callup. He really struggled early but has shown some power lately and is hitting .214/.272/.381 in 24 games with Pittsburgh. His defense has been better than expected but still needs a lot of improvement. On offense, clearly he needs to either take more pitches, make better contact, or drive the ball more.

Keep in mind Alvarez is in his second professional season. I've heard a lot of negativity about him on the radio and in my forays into real life. It is too early to worry. Another player of the same age and experience, the Rangers' Justin Smoak, only hit .209/.311/.346 yet the Mariners still liked him enough to give Cliff Lee in a trade for him. A decent hitting third basema named Mike Schmidt hit only .196 at this age. I'm not concerned, yet, with what we've seen from Alvarez. Considering his great work at Indianapolis, the half season has been about what I expected.

2. Jose Tabata - A-
Tabata was promoted to Pittsburgh after hitting .308/.373/.424 at Indianapolis. In the majors he's hit .241/.323/.328 through 29 games.

While Jose's offensive production has been below average, unlike Alvarez Tabata has had good at bats even when he's made outs. He's also playing the outfield at a Gold Glove level. Considering most players his age are still in AA or High A, I am fine with his hitting so far. He needs to cut down on times caught stealing. Overall, his year has to be considered a success to this point.

3. Tony Sanchez - A-
Tony hit .314/.416/.454 at Bradenton before his season was ended after 59 games due to a broken jaw suffered when being hit in the face with a pitch.

Provided that the mental trauma of this injury does not affect Tony's approach at the plate, I am still very pleased with his season. A broken jaw is not a chronic type injury and he alredy showed more than enough to start next season with Altoona. The Florida State League is the most pitcher-friendly league in baseball and those offensive numbers are just outstanding. He would have been a legitimate MVP candidate in the league. While Sanchez loses a half season of play, that's half a season less wear and tear on his knees considering he would have started 2011 at Altoona no matter what anyway. My only concern would be that he threw out only 15% of base stealers.

4. Zack von Rosenberg - Incomplete
Still only 19, von Rosenberg is currently in the State College rotation. He's gone 0-4 with a 5.57 ERA yet has shown great control in five starts. I am not going to grade the short season guys because they've only played a month. Also it's common for prospects this young to improve dramatically even between June and August - which is hopefully happening with Zack.

5. Tim Alderson - D
Tim Alderson's season has been somewhat of a disaster. He went 7-5 with a 5.30 ERA at Altoona while allowing opposing batters to hit .307. Alderson has alternated good games with complete disaster starts, the latest of which earned him a demotion to Bradenton.

Alderson is still only 21 and certainly has time to turn things around. But at this point he's looking like a poor return for the Pirates' All-Star second baseman.

6. Brad Lincoln - B
Lincoln went 6-2, 3.16 in 11 starts at Indianapolis and earned a promotion to the big league rotation. At Pittsburgh he's gone 1-3, 5.14 in seven starts. None of his starts have been disasters but he also hasn't struck anyone out and is looking like another pitch to contact, back end starter. That's valuable but you would hope to get more out of a #4 overall pick, although it's not Brad's fault that Dave Littlefield drafted him too high.

7. Chase d'Arnaud - D
After hitting .293/.398/.454 during a breakout season in A ball last year, d'Arnaud has slumped to .240/.325/.356 at Altoona. At age 23 he should be showing a lot more to justify top prospect status. He has good range but has already made 20 errors at shortstop. Chase is still walking a lot and is 17-of-19 in stealing bases, but he'll be a utility infielder in the major leagues if he can't hit for contact better than this.

8. Starling Marte - Incomplete
Marte has missed most of the season after undergoing hand surgery, but is still hitting .283/.374/.391 in 26 games at Bradenton which is very good for a 21-year-old center fielder. On the bad side, he has 26 strikeouts and no home runs. He's only played 85 minor league games in the U.S. and will probably play in the Arizona Fall League or winter ball this offseason to get more experience.

9. Rudy Owens - A
Owens has gone 8-3, 3.00 at Altoona so far in his age 21 season. He had 81 strikeouts compared to just 17 walks. Owens was just a 28th round pick but emerged as a prospect last year when he put up a 2.10 ERA in A ball. His stock has really risen with his mastery of the AA level.

10. Ronald Uviedo - Gone
In 16 relief appearances at Altoona, the 23-year-old Uviedo had a 3.22 ERA and was striking out over a batter an inning while holding hitters to a .165 average. In one of the dumber trades in recent memory, the Pirates shipped him to Toronto for Dana Eveland, a 26-year-old righty who had a 6.45 ERA with the Jays and walked more batters than he struck out. Eveland was terrible in three games and was designated for assignment; no other team wanted him so he went to Indianapolis where he has a 15.75 ERA. Meanwhile the Blue Jays have unsuccessfully converted Uviedo to a starting pitcher.

Pirates Revamp Their Lineup

PITTSBURGH, Pa. / June 11, 2010

As Pirate fans well know, the Pittsburgh offense has been a minor disaster this year. How bad is it? With 196 runs in 60 games, the hometown nine are scoring fewer runs per game than any Pirates team since the 1917 Pirates, a dead ball era team which collectively hit 9 home runs all year.

They're also a pace to score 100 fewer runs than last year's team, a team which itself finished 30th in baseball in runs.

Given all this, it was painfully necessary to start promoting hitting prospects.

Neil Walker (.321/.392/.560 at Indianapolis) was the first to come up and is now the everyday second baseman. In 15 games he's hitting .322/.365/.492 which actually makes him the best hitter in the Buccos lineup thus far, slightly ahead of even Andrew McCutchen.

Tabata Added
The other shoe dropped Wednesday. Jeff Clement and his .230 OBP was finally optioned to Indianapolis. He'll turn 27 in two months, and still looks like an AAA player. I think Clement's knees robbed him of a shot to stick in the majors, since he probably has enough pop to be a backup catcher but nothing else. With the move to first, he looks like an AAA lifer.

In exchange, the Pirates promoted Jose Tabata, .308/.373/.424 at Indianapolis. Tabata immediately becomes the everyday left fielder and leadoff hitter. Tabata is a wild card; his Indianapolis numbers were the same as McCutchen's 2008, but there are questions about his age among other things. I'd say his most comparable player is Nyjer Morgan, meaning that he should really be a starting center fielder or fourth outfielder. But despite his lack of pop, he should at a minimum tie Lastings Milledge's year to date total of zero home runs. I for one had grown tired of Milledge taking bad routes to balls in the outfield and making dumb outs on the bases.

Doumit to first
Ryan Doumit started at first base last night for the first time since 2007. Unlike Jim Tracy, current management actually had Doumit, you know, work out at first base before putting him there in a game. Mad props. Of course, first base proved to be yet another position where Doumit can mishandle a ball in the dirt leading to a run. It's unclear whether he will start at first regularly or only on his off days from catching, but I'd expect a 50/50 split as the Pirates try to build his trade value up. Regardless, this means Doumit will be in the lineup every day which obviously helps the offense.

Wherefore art thou Pedro?
The Pirates have one move left, which is to promote Pedro Alvarez. Pedro is on an absolute tear, 13-for-24 in his last seven games including six extra base hits in that span. His stats are up to .291/.380/.552, basically the same numbers that merited promoting Walker. He's also scored 40 runs and driven in 50 over 61 games and has a good walk rate.

Pedro is still striking out once a game on average but is producing about as much as a player possibly can while doing it. His K rate is still my main remaining question; if like most players he strikes out more in the major leagues, we're talking 180 strikeouts a year. The lefthander has answered questions about his platoon splits this year, hitting an absurd .320/.420/.683 against southpaws.

Current third baseman Andy LaRoche had a decent 2009 but is hitting .240/.306/.329 this season. Is that an off year or his true talent level? Consider that he's also hitting .231/.313/.349 career. Since May 5 he's driven in five runs. It's Alvarez time.

Your 2011 Pirates
Here's the lineup I think you'll see starting this coming homestand, and continuing for the rest of the season barring trades. And for that matter, in 2011 except that we might get a semi-real shortstop.

1. Tabata
2. Walker
3. McCutchen
4. Jones
5. Doumit
6. Alvarez
7. Jaramillo, Milledge or Church
8. Cedeno
9. Pitcher

Looks like a legitimate major league lineup! Wooooooo and GO BUCS!

Monday Night Dream

PITTSBURGH, Pa. / May 5, 2010

At this time I would like to publish a full and complete recap of my dream Monday night.

This dream was set in Pittsburgh where I was sitting on my couch. It was an off day for the Pirates. So with not even a radio broadcast to keep me occupied, of course I opened up the MILB.com Gamecast of the Indianapolis Indians game.

Imagine my shock and awe when Jose Tabata was not listed at the top of the I-Tribe lineup. I pulled up Dejan Kovacevic's PBC Blog which informed me that Brian Bass had been optioned back to Indy, and Tabata had been called up to the big leagues.

At that point the dream fast forwarded to the following night. I was listening to the Pirates broadcast the following day. Tabata was listed as the leadoff batter in center field. Andrew McCutchen was moved to right. Garrett Jones was playing first. The pitcher's spot was still in eighth with Ronny Cedeno batting ninth.

Mind-blowing? Strangely prescient? Too much like my real life to justify being a dream?

Maybe all of those. Although of course my wakeful self had mainly been paying attention to Pedro Alvarez, Tabata is now hitting .340/.404/.456 and making a great campaign for an actual call-up.

They can't all be sex dreams.