Hurdle, Banister are the finalists for manager
Former Rockies manager Clint Hurdle, recently profiled on this very site, will be interviewed tomorrow but is already one of two finalists for the Pirates job. Expect the Pirates to sign him before Sunday, which is the first day negotiations with free agents can begin. It would be a big disadvantage to not have a leader in place for free agent negotiations.
The other finalist is Jeff Banister, who was most recently the Pirates bench coach. Jeff had an astounding 1.000 career batting average for the Pirates, going 1-for-1 for the 1991 squad. But he hasn't managed since 1998 and even then it was at the AA level. It's hard for me to believe he has a great chance at the job - if the Pirates wanted him to manage the team they could have given him the job two weeks ago after he interviewed for it.
What would it take to not be re-signed?
The Pirates got off to an inauspicious start to this offseason by re-signing reliever Wil Ledezma. No details were released, but let's hope this contract is of the minor league variety.
Ledezma went 0-3 with a 6.86 ERA in 27 games for the Pirates. He was brought up to replace Javier Lopez as the lefty specialist out of the bullpen, but got absolutely torched by opposing lefties who put up a batting line of .367/.424/.533. He's put up a 5.26 career ERA, and has a career WHIP identical to last year's 1.58.
Ledezma is a good minor league pitcher, but there's no reason to think at age 29 that he's talented enough to be on a big league staff. No details were released, but let's hope this one was a minor league contract.
Four Cuts Made
Outfielder Brandon Moss and pitchers Sean Gallagher, Steven Jackson and Justin Thomas were all outrighted to AAA. They can all become minor league free agents. Maybe the Pirates will resign one or two of these guys, but none have shown any indication of being major league ballplayers. The roster is down to 38 men after these moves, meaning the Pirates weren't unbelievably anxious to hang on to any of them. Brandon Moss, for one, proved once again in September that he can't hit major league pitching. All four will get AAA contracts somewhere.
Dotel Becomes A Free Agent
Former Pirate closer Octavio Dotel, still featured in the blog's title bar to provide a link to the glory days of last July, is a free agent. The Rockies declined his option as expected.
Dotel pitched well here, going 2-2 with a 4.28 ERA and 21 saves while racking up strikeouts. Overall on the season he appeared in 68 games, gave up only 52 hits in 64 innings, K'd 75 batters and walked 32. Those are basically the same numbers he's always put up, and I would be open to bringing him back in 2011.
Showing posts with label Octavio Dotel. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Octavio Dotel. Show all posts
November 3, 2010
July 31, 2010
Dotel Traded For Lambo, McDonald
Dealing a huge blow to all bloggers who just designed a new banner heading featuring Octavio Dotel, the Pirates traded their closer to the Dodgers for an AA outfielder and an AAA pitcher.
Andrew Lambo is a 21-year-old corner outfielder who is currently hitting .271/.325/.420 in AA. He was ranked the 49th best prospect in baseball prior to the 2009 season but has fallen off a bit after a year and a half of pedestrian hitting numbers in Double A, coupled with a 50-game suspension this year for violating the drug policy.
However, he's at an age where many players are still in college. If he develops more power he can be a starting outfielder at the major league level in a few years. He should join Altoona's starting lineup immediately.
Also coming over is James McDonald, a 25-year-old righthanded pitcher who's currently 6-1 with a 4.41 ERA in AAA with 57 strikeouts and 24 walks in 63 innings.
McDonald pitched almost all of 2009 as a moderately valuable major league reliever, where he went 5-5 with a 4.00 ERA. He was sent back down to be converted into a starter.
McDonald throws a 93 mph fastball and a good slow curveball but needs to develop his changeup to be a successful MLB starting pitcher. I wouldn't be surprised if he joins the MLB rotation right away.
Dotel ends his Pirate career 2-2 with a 4.28 ERA and 21 saves. He was one of my favorite players on the team and that is a great save number for a team with only 36 victories total. However, I am optimistic about the return for Dotel. Clearly either Evan Meek or Joel Hanrahan can step into his closing role; the question is whether any of the other relievers can handle Meek's seventh inning job. For what it's worth, Dotel will probably be a free agent after the year although I'd expect him to sign with a big market team after his good 2010.
UPDATE: McDonald will join the major league team.
Andrew Lambo is a 21-year-old corner outfielder who is currently hitting .271/.325/.420 in AA. He was ranked the 49th best prospect in baseball prior to the 2009 season but has fallen off a bit after a year and a half of pedestrian hitting numbers in Double A, coupled with a 50-game suspension this year for violating the drug policy.
However, he's at an age where many players are still in college. If he develops more power he can be a starting outfielder at the major league level in a few years. He should join Altoona's starting lineup immediately.
Also coming over is James McDonald, a 25-year-old righthanded pitcher who's currently 6-1 with a 4.41 ERA in AAA with 57 strikeouts and 24 walks in 63 innings.McDonald pitched almost all of 2009 as a moderately valuable major league reliever, where he went 5-5 with a 4.00 ERA. He was sent back down to be converted into a starter.
McDonald throws a 93 mph fastball and a good slow curveball but needs to develop his changeup to be a successful MLB starting pitcher. I wouldn't be surprised if he joins the MLB rotation right away.
Dotel ends his Pirate career 2-2 with a 4.28 ERA and 21 saves. He was one of my favorite players on the team and that is a great save number for a team with only 36 victories total. However, I am optimistic about the return for Dotel. Clearly either Evan Meek or Joel Hanrahan can step into his closing role; the question is whether any of the other relievers can handle Meek's seventh inning job. For what it's worth, Dotel will probably be a free agent after the year although I'd expect him to sign with a big market team after his good 2010.
UPDATE: McDonald will join the major league team.
June 17, 2010
Trade Possibilities: Octavio Dotel
PITTSBURGH, Pa. / June 17, 2010
So I was on hand to watch the Pirates lose again last night. They've now lost ten games in a row and are 23-42. If it weren't for the necessity of redoing the meticulously crafted banner at the top of this page, I'd say it's time to give up on the 2010 championship.
All this means that the Pirates will no doubt be selling at the trade deadline once again. Yesterday I considered the possibility of trading Ryan Doumit, concluding that the Pirates should keep him. Today let's take a look at Octavio Dotel.
Why Trade Octavio Dotel?
Octavio has done a decent job this year, saving 12 of 15 chances, and is one of my favorite players on the team. He's been overpowering at times and averages 12 strikeouts per nine innings.
That being said, he also has a 5.84 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP. Next year will be his age 37 season. Dotel's contract has a $4.5 million option for 2011 but it seems likely that the Pirates will buy him out for $500,000.
The stats make it unlikely that a contending team would add Dotel as a closer. However, his ugly ratios are inflated by a couple of blowout gaemes. He's shown enough stuff to be a valuable piece in a playoff bullpen. There should be a market for Dotel since as a general rule, all teams need bullpen help all the time.
Moving Dotel would also allow the Pirates to give Evan Meek a look at closer. Meek has been nothing short of great, with an 0.72 ERA and an 0.85 WHIP. However, we have all seen pitchers who are great in a setup role but can't close to save their lives. By giving Meek a tryout this year, the Pirates still retain the option of returning him to the setup role and signing a new free agent closer. That wouldn't be possible if he's given the job in 2012 and bombs then.
What would the Pirates get?
Most likely another reliever, either an AA or High Class A prospect or a young, low leverage major league guy. There's no reason to dump Dotel for nothing, but other clubs also aren't looking at him as a blockbuster target to put a team over the top.
Who Would Want Dotel?
Octavio flamed out for the Yankees in 2006 to the tune of a 10.80 ERA and 2.90 WHIP. It's difficult to imagine the Yankees adding him again. The Padres bullpen looks set. Almost any other contending team would be a possibility. The best matches look like:
1. The Los Angeles Angels bullpen has been a minor disaster. Righthanders Scot Shields (6.23 ERA, 2.03 WHIP), Matt Palmer (6.26 ERA, 2.04 WHIP) and Brian Stokes (7.31 ERA, 2.50 WHIP) have all been awful yet are still on the active roster. There's no excuse for a contending team to have three pitchers with WHIPs above 2.00. Dotel would be a clear upgrade over any of the three.
2. The Toronto Blue Jays might look to upgrade their bullpen as Scott Downs and Shawn Camp have really been the only reliable options. Toronto manager Cito Gaston also has a notable love of veterans. The Jays don't have as much money as their divisional rivals New York and Boston but will need to do something, other than for Jose Bautista to hit home runs, to stay within shouting distance.
3. The Philadelphia Phillies have a couple of questionable arms in their bullpen in Antonio Bastardo and David Herndon. Dotel would be an upgrade over either. The Phillies might like to add a pitcher with closing experience since Brad Lidge has already been on the DL twice this year.
The Verdict
Trade him. I like Dotel, but he's unnecessary considering the emergence of Evan Meek. Unless the Pirates plan on picking up his option which is doubtful, there is really no reason to keep Dotel around if a younger reliever can be had for him. He'll still be remembered for his sweet scoreboard video.
So I was on hand to watch the Pirates lose again last night. They've now lost ten games in a row and are 23-42. If it weren't for the necessity of redoing the meticulously crafted banner at the top of this page, I'd say it's time to give up on the 2010 championship.
All this means that the Pirates will no doubt be selling at the trade deadline once again. Yesterday I considered the possibility of trading Ryan Doumit, concluding that the Pirates should keep him. Today let's take a look at Octavio Dotel.
Why Trade Octavio Dotel?Octavio has done a decent job this year, saving 12 of 15 chances, and is one of my favorite players on the team. He's been overpowering at times and averages 12 strikeouts per nine innings.
That being said, he also has a 5.84 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP. Next year will be his age 37 season. Dotel's contract has a $4.5 million option for 2011 but it seems likely that the Pirates will buy him out for $500,000.
The stats make it unlikely that a contending team would add Dotel as a closer. However, his ugly ratios are inflated by a couple of blowout gaemes. He's shown enough stuff to be a valuable piece in a playoff bullpen. There should be a market for Dotel since as a general rule, all teams need bullpen help all the time.
Moving Dotel would also allow the Pirates to give Evan Meek a look at closer. Meek has been nothing short of great, with an 0.72 ERA and an 0.85 WHIP. However, we have all seen pitchers who are great in a setup role but can't close to save their lives. By giving Meek a tryout this year, the Pirates still retain the option of returning him to the setup role and signing a new free agent closer. That wouldn't be possible if he's given the job in 2012 and bombs then.
What would the Pirates get?
Most likely another reliever, either an AA or High Class A prospect or a young, low leverage major league guy. There's no reason to dump Dotel for nothing, but other clubs also aren't looking at him as a blockbuster target to put a team over the top.
Who Would Want Dotel?
Octavio flamed out for the Yankees in 2006 to the tune of a 10.80 ERA and 2.90 WHIP. It's difficult to imagine the Yankees adding him again. The Padres bullpen looks set. Almost any other contending team would be a possibility. The best matches look like:
1. The Los Angeles Angels bullpen has been a minor disaster. Righthanders Scot Shields (6.23 ERA, 2.03 WHIP), Matt Palmer (6.26 ERA, 2.04 WHIP) and Brian Stokes (7.31 ERA, 2.50 WHIP) have all been awful yet are still on the active roster. There's no excuse for a contending team to have three pitchers with WHIPs above 2.00. Dotel would be a clear upgrade over any of the three.
2. The Toronto Blue Jays might look to upgrade their bullpen as Scott Downs and Shawn Camp have really been the only reliable options. Toronto manager Cito Gaston also has a notable love of veterans. The Jays don't have as much money as their divisional rivals New York and Boston but will need to do something, other than for Jose Bautista to hit home runs, to stay within shouting distance.
3. The Philadelphia Phillies have a couple of questionable arms in their bullpen in Antonio Bastardo and David Herndon. Dotel would be an upgrade over either. The Phillies might like to add a pitcher with closing experience since Brad Lidge has already been on the DL twice this year.
The Verdict
Trade him. I like Dotel, but he's unnecessary considering the emergence of Evan Meek. Unless the Pirates plan on picking up his option which is doubtful, there is really no reason to keep Dotel around if a younger reliever can be had for him. He'll still be remembered for his sweet scoreboard video.
June 1, 2010
The Value of Patience
PITTSBURGH, Pa. / June 1, 2010
Sports fans are always eager to make changes to their team. This is why the backup quarterback is always popular. In baseball, one of the most volatile positions is the closer spot on any team.
For example, Jason Frasor won the Blue Jays closer job in spring training. He got five save opportunities in the team's first seven games, and blew two of them. That was it. Frasor was pushed to a set-up role and Kevin Gregg had the job. Baltimore, Philadelphia and Milwaukee have each employed three different men closers already, in less than a third of a season.
It seems so long ago, but one month ago Octavio Dotel was the worst closer in baseball. At the end of April his ERA stood at 12.27. He had given up runs in six straight appearances during which he walked four and gave up 14 hits, three of them home runs, in 6.1 innings.
Basically it looked like madness to keep Dotel in the closer role. Not only was he the worst reliever on the team in April, but he might have been the worst reliever in baseball. Yet that is exactly what John Russell and the Pirates did.
Well, an underrated way to fix any problem is to do nothing and wait for things to get better. Dotel just completed a month of May in which he appeared in 11 games, an inning each time, and went 1-0 with eight saves and an 0.82 ERA. He also displayed overpowering stuff, striking out at least one batter in every inning he pitched during the month. In May he was the best closer in baseball.
So to a shortsighted observer, Octavio was the worst closer in baseball and is now the best. Of course Dotel is neither. But where many saw a closer with a 12.27 ERA a month ago, the Pirates saw a guy who in an 11 year career had an ERA below 4.00 and 11 strikeouts per nine innings. In short, the same reasons he became a closer are still valid.
Incidentally this was exactly where the Pirates erred with Matt Capps when they non-tendered him this past winter. Capps was a 26 year old reliever with a career ERA of 3.61, 67 saves and a career walk rate of 1.7 per nine innings. That's why more than ten teams wanted to sign him when he hit the free agent market. Yet the Pirates, in letting him leave for no compensation, saw only the guy who had an awful 2009 season.
Of course, making no move is not always best. After the terrible starts of Akinori Iwamura and Charlie Morton, I have advocated, and the Pirates have agreed, that it's best to make a change. The difference is that Iwamura and Morton were league average players in their best years while someone like Dotel or Ryan Doumit is capable of much more. So the next time Dotel blows a save, remember the value of patience.
Sports fans are always eager to make changes to their team. This is why the backup quarterback is always popular. In baseball, one of the most volatile positions is the closer spot on any team.
For example, Jason Frasor won the Blue Jays closer job in spring training. He got five save opportunities in the team's first seven games, and blew two of them. That was it. Frasor was pushed to a set-up role and Kevin Gregg had the job. Baltimore, Philadelphia and Milwaukee have each employed three different men closers already, in less than a third of a season.
It seems so long ago, but one month ago Octavio Dotel was the worst closer in baseball. At the end of April his ERA stood at 12.27. He had given up runs in six straight appearances during which he walked four and gave up 14 hits, three of them home runs, in 6.1 innings.Basically it looked like madness to keep Dotel in the closer role. Not only was he the worst reliever on the team in April, but he might have been the worst reliever in baseball. Yet that is exactly what John Russell and the Pirates did.
Well, an underrated way to fix any problem is to do nothing and wait for things to get better. Dotel just completed a month of May in which he appeared in 11 games, an inning each time, and went 1-0 with eight saves and an 0.82 ERA. He also displayed overpowering stuff, striking out at least one batter in every inning he pitched during the month. In May he was the best closer in baseball.
So to a shortsighted observer, Octavio was the worst closer in baseball and is now the best. Of course Dotel is neither. But where many saw a closer with a 12.27 ERA a month ago, the Pirates saw a guy who in an 11 year career had an ERA below 4.00 and 11 strikeouts per nine innings. In short, the same reasons he became a closer are still valid.
Incidentally this was exactly where the Pirates erred with Matt Capps when they non-tendered him this past winter. Capps was a 26 year old reliever with a career ERA of 3.61, 67 saves and a career walk rate of 1.7 per nine innings. That's why more than ten teams wanted to sign him when he hit the free agent market. Yet the Pirates, in letting him leave for no compensation, saw only the guy who had an awful 2009 season.
Of course, making no move is not always best. After the terrible starts of Akinori Iwamura and Charlie Morton, I have advocated, and the Pirates have agreed, that it's best to make a change. The difference is that Iwamura and Morton were league average players in their best years while someone like Dotel or Ryan Doumit is capable of much more. So the next time Dotel blows a save, remember the value of patience.
May 20, 2010
The Pirates' Lights Out Bullpen
PITTSBURGH, Pa. / May 20, 2010
The problems with the '09 Pirates were legendary, chief among them being a lack of good baseball players. But really, the bullpen was the worst part of that team. Statistically the '09 relief corps was below replacement level, meaning that picking up any random guys would be better.
Calling that bullshit claim's bluff, Neil Huntington addressed the problem by picking up any random guys. Results have been great. The Pirates have quietly featured a lights out back end of the bullpen this season. Check it out:
Evan Meek - 26 innings, 7 BB, 27 K
Joel Hanrahan - 16 innings, 6 BB, 24 K
Octavio Dotel - 17.1 innings, 9 BB, 24 K, 1 sweet video
I worked for a year for a light switch company, so I know lights out when I see it.
Can you remember the last time the Pirates featured a bullpen with two set-up men and a closer who all struck out more than a batter an inning? You can't because it never happened. I say this with confidence despite having checked zero sources to verify that claim.
The Pirates clearly favor a pitch to contact approach for their starters but prefer relievers with swing and miss stuff. That's exactly right, as strikeouts are key to get through one inning and walks can be worked around. A Hanrahan type just doesn't work as well as a starter because unless the guy is totally unhittable, the pitch counts are just too high to get through six innings. Rich Harden, meet Yovani Gallardo.
Of course Meek can't and shouldn't keep up his 100+ inning pace, so a nice step for the rest of 2010 will be to add or develop a fourth back end guy. There are too many close games to use the same guys in all of them.
Brendan Donnelly comes off the disabled list today but has walked more than a batter an inning so far. D.J. Carrasco looks like a long reliever to me. Jack Taschner looks like an Indianapolis reliever. Javier Lopez now has a 2.25 ERA but is much more effective against lefthanded hitters.
I suggest that Charlie Morton can do the job. He has a fastball that's made for the late innings and he's not helping anyone by putting up a 9.68 ERA in the rotation. He wouldn't be the first guy that's great in relief, terrible starting. In fact Hanrahan and Dotel are failed starters themselves.
Even if Morton in relief doesn't materialize, Dotel/Hanrahan/Meek are a treat to watch.
The problems with the '09 Pirates were legendary, chief among them being a lack of good baseball players. But really, the bullpen was the worst part of that team. Statistically the '09 relief corps was below replacement level, meaning that picking up any random guys would be better.
Calling that bullshit claim's bluff, Neil Huntington addressed the problem by picking up any random guys. Results have been great. The Pirates have quietly featured a lights out back end of the bullpen this season. Check it out:
Evan Meek - 26 innings, 7 BB, 27 KJoel Hanrahan - 16 innings, 6 BB, 24 K
Octavio Dotel - 17.1 innings, 9 BB, 24 K, 1 sweet video
I worked for a year for a light switch company, so I know lights out when I see it.
Can you remember the last time the Pirates featured a bullpen with two set-up men and a closer who all struck out more than a batter an inning? You can't because it never happened. I say this with confidence despite having checked zero sources to verify that claim.
The Pirates clearly favor a pitch to contact approach for their starters but prefer relievers with swing and miss stuff. That's exactly right, as strikeouts are key to get through one inning and walks can be worked around. A Hanrahan type just doesn't work as well as a starter because unless the guy is totally unhittable, the pitch counts are just too high to get through six innings. Rich Harden, meet Yovani Gallardo.
Of course Meek can't and shouldn't keep up his 100+ inning pace, so a nice step for the rest of 2010 will be to add or develop a fourth back end guy. There are too many close games to use the same guys in all of them.
Brendan Donnelly comes off the disabled list today but has walked more than a batter an inning so far. D.J. Carrasco looks like a long reliever to me. Jack Taschner looks like an Indianapolis reliever. Javier Lopez now has a 2.25 ERA but is much more effective against lefthanded hitters.
I suggest that Charlie Morton can do the job. He has a fastball that's made for the late innings and he's not helping anyone by putting up a 9.68 ERA in the rotation. He wouldn't be the first guy that's great in relief, terrible starting. In fact Hanrahan and Dotel are failed starters themselves.
Even if Morton in relief doesn't materialize, Dotel/Hanrahan/Meek are a treat to watch.
January 21, 2010
He's Half Mike Gonzalez, Half Mike Williams
PITTSBURGH, Pa. / January 21, 2010Apparently Pirates GM Neil Huntington skipped last night's Live Blog to upgrade his current bullpen. As I'm sure you've read, the Pirates have officially signed Octavio Dotel to be the team's closer.
The Dotel signing addresses a common complaint about Matt Capps. Even in Capps' best years, he was never your stereotypical hard-throwing, strikeout guy that fans expect to see closing games. Dotel has struck out more than a batter per inning throughout his career. Pirates fans probably remember him as a shutdown setup man with Houston. He's almost a pure fastball pitcher and can still bring the heat, having struck out 11 batters per nine innings last year. Dotel also has a slider which he throws about once every seven pitches.
While there's been a fair amount of excitement expressed, I would expect Octavio Dotel to be at best an average closer. The four main problems with Dotel are:
1. Injury risk. Dotel missed most of 2005 with injuries, was ineffective and missed most of 2006, and then pitched in only 32 games in 2007.
2. Home runs. Hard fastballs can get hit hard. He's given up 1.2 home runs per nine innings in his career.
3. Control. He's walked 4.1 batters per nine innings in his career, 5.2 last season.
4. Age. At 36 Dotel could lose his effectiveness at any time. Some relievers are done at 30, others at 45, but it happens at some age to everyone. This is also a concern for the primary setup man, 38-year-old Brendan Donnelly.
The key to this signing is, those problems are also what makes Dotel a good value. He's overcome the walks and home runs to post good ERAs for his whole career. He's the Pirates' best option to close for around $3 million, and is much less risky than the 26-year-old Capps who was just awful in 2009. While it was probably pretty dumb to get nothing for Capps, Octavio Dotel is likely to be a better closer at the same salary.
The contract also includes a club option for 2011, which could indicate a lack of desire to flip Dotel at the trade deadline.
Alas the Anthony Claggett era was all too short. He was a Pirate for only a week worth of games, and was designated for assignment to make room for Dotel. He'll be forever remembered for pitching the 8th inning of the Pirates' 8-4 loss to the Reds on October 3. There are many candidates but Anthony Claggett could be the least significant Pirate of the 2000s. Of course there is a chance that no one claims him, which would allow the Pirates to send him to Indianapolis in a swing man/long relief role.
UPDATE: While I say Dotel's upside is an average closer at best, that's not necessarily a bad thing. An average closer has an ERA in the low 3's which is what Dotel has done the last two seasons. The real risk is an age or injury-related dropoff; if he continues to do what he did the last two years that'll be fine.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)