2011 Position Preview: Starting Pitchers

The Pirates made one of the two moves I wanted to bolster their starting staff this season when they signed Kevin Correia to a two year, $8 million contract. Correia would be a back end starter almost anywhere else, but based on the spring rotation I expect him to take the Wrigley Field mound on Opening Day, April 1.

Correia is a righthander whose best pitches are a 90 mph fastball with movement and an 85 mph slider. He also mixes in a cutter, a slow curveball and a changeup. After a few inconsistent years in a swingman role, Correia had a breakout season in 2009. Last year he was hurt by the home run and posted the highest ERA of all the Padres' starters.

2008: 110 IP, 3-8, 6.05, 1.71 WHIP, 5.4 K/9
2009: 198 IP, 12-11, 3.91, 1.30 WHIP, 6.5 K/9
2010: 145 IP, 10-10, 5.40, 1.49 WHIP, 7.1 K/9

While his ERA looked bad last year, I'm not too concerned for a few reasons. Correia exceeded his career high in innings by 53 in 2009 while throwing 30% sliders. A huge jump in innings with a high percentage of sliders almost always leads to fatigue the following year. Sure enough, last year Correia had respectable stats (10-7, 4.63) in mid-August before apparently hitting a wall. One year later and at only 30 years old, Correia's arm should be more rested - especially since he threw only 15% sliders last year.

Correia's peripherals are encouraging too. In 2010, he posted his highest ever strikeout rate and also his highest ever ground ball rate, 49%. That ground ball rate makes his home run rate of 1.24 per nine innings look like bad luck. He'll also do better this year if he relies more on the slider, his best pitch. This year I'm expecting Correia to bounce back with a 4.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 7 K/9 over 190 innings.

#2 Starter: Paul Maholm
The Pirates' second longest tenured player, Maholm will hope to rebound from a very disappointing year. He had a 4.03 ERA after shutting out the Astros on three hits in July, then was rocked for a 6.81 ERA the rest of the season. I think he'll be the #2 starter this year, which slots him to pitch the home opener on Thursday, April 7.

2008: 206 IP, 9-9, 3.71, 1.28 WHIP, 6.1 K/9
2009: 195 IP, 8-9, 4.44, 1.44 WHIP, 5.5 K/9
2010: 185 IP, 9-15, 5.10, 1.57 WHIP, 5 K/9

I want to see Maholm succeed as much as anyone, but his falling strikeout numbers are cause for concern. While the lefthander did well with his slider and curveball, his 88 mph fastball looked like batting practice to MLB hitters in 2010. Batters hit .303/.360/.452 against Maholm on the year. Even if he can keep home run totals low, the odds of Maholm putting up a sub-4.00 ERA as he did in 2008 look slim to me. In 2011 I'm expecting a 4.90 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 5 K/9 over 190 innings.

#3 Starter: James McDonald
After coming to Pittsburgh in the Octavio Dotel deal, McDonald was nothing short of a revelation. He relied mainly on a 92 mph fastball which was easily the best on the starting staff, but his out pitch was a 77 mph curveball that routinely made accomplished hitters look stupid. McDonald had a 3.52 ERA for the Pirates - 2.31 in September - and accomplished the rare feat of increasing his strikeout rate despite moving from the bullpen to starting.

2008: 6 IP, 0-0, 0.00, 1.00 WHIP, 3 K/9
2009: 63 IP, 5-5, 4.00, 1.38 WHIP, 7.7 K/9
2010: 72 IP, 4-6, 4.02, 1.30 WHIP, 8.5 K/9

This season, I'm expecting McDonald to again be the Pirates' best pitcher. He's 26 and unlike most pitchers coming off breakout years, should continue to be durable since he doesn't use a slider and has never thrown more than 142 innings in a season. I'm counting on 175 innings with a 3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 8.3 K/9.

#4 Starter: Ross Ohlendorf
My associate McMillen got together a group of people last year to wear orange in the bleachers for Ohlendorf's starts in honor of his alma mater, Princeton. At the first game the group was me with an orange shirt in section 135, McMillen with an orange shirt in 138, and zero other people who even happened to be wearing orange. It was a real microcosm of Ross's season, which was undoubtedly the best ever for a starter with just one win.

2008: 63 IP, 1-4, 6.46, 1.87 WHIP, 7 K/9
2009: 177 IP, 11-10, 3.92, 1.23 WHIP, 6 K/9
2010: 108 IP, 1-11, 4.07, 1.39 WHIP, 6.6 K/9

Despite the one win season, Ohlendorf pitched well enough that he's now an established major league starter rather than a one year wonder. At 28, he shouldn't lose anything from his 91 mph fastball and can continue to improve his excellent slider. I expect Ross Ohlendorf to be effective again and healthy this year: a 3.90 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 6.5 K/9 in 175 innings.

There are several candidates for the fifth starter spot, so I'll save those for another day. I have confidence in three of Pittsburgh's top four starters, but we'll need Paul Maholm to return to form if the Pirates are to have a good rotation this season.

James McDonald: Our New Ace

I'll be the first to admit that when James McDonald arrived in the Octavio Dotel deal, he was just one of a bunch of unknown names coming to the Pirates organization on trade deadline day. Six weeks later this deal already looks like a steal for Pittsburgh.

In eight starts McDonald has a 3.49 ERA. In three of those starts he allowed zero runs while pitching siz, seven and eight innings. He also has struck out 44 in 49 innings while batters have hit only .251/.318/.352 against him. Needless to say those are excellent results for an age 25 season.

Looking at McDonald's pitches (via Fangraphs), he's throwing his fastball at an average of 92.3 miles per hour - a drop off of only 0.5 mph since last year when he pitched primarily in relief. That's excellent as most pitchers lose a full 2 mph in the switch to starting. His curveball - more impressive than his fastball to the naked eye - shows a strong positive value as well. A below average changeup rounds out McDonald's arsenal as he's been one of the rare starters to succeed while throwing only three pitches.

McDonald has shown solid command, walking 3.3 batters per nine innings. He has also excelled at holding runners, allowing only two runners to steal while three have been caught.

Clearly this has been a great age 25 season for our new starting pitcher. I expect continued improvement in 2011. Nothing in McDonald's minor league numbers suggests that this season is a fluke. He consistently struck out over a batter per inning in the minor leagues while also exhibiting strong command. Moreover, he's doing this while only throwing three pitches. Subject to the Pirate's choice of permanent pitching coach, I'd expect him to round out his arsenal by adding a fourth pitch for next year - likely a cut fastball.

Octavio Dotel has been solid for Los Angeles, but it still looks like the Pirates really won out on the trade - even without considering outfield prospect Andrew Lambo, who also came over in the same deal. As we well know, high upside, high strikeout, young starting pitchers rarely come along. Add two more and we're good to go for 2011.

Dotel Traded For Lambo, McDonald

Dealing a huge blow to all bloggers who just designed a new banner heading featuring Octavio Dotel, the Pirates traded their closer to the Dodgers for an AA outfielder and an AAA pitcher.

Andrew Lambo is a 21-year-old corner outfielder who is currently hitting .271/.325/.420 in AA. He was ranked the 49th best prospect in baseball prior to the 2009 season but has fallen off a bit after a year and a half of pedestrian hitting numbers in Double A, coupled with a 50-game suspension this year for violating the drug policy.

However, he's at an age where many players are still in college. If he develops more power he can be a starting outfielder at the major league level in a few years. He should join Altoona's starting lineup immediately.

Also coming over is James McDonald, a 25-year-old righthanded pitcher who's currently 6-1 with a 4.41 ERA in AAA with 57 strikeouts and 24 walks in 63 innings.

McDonald pitched almost all of 2009 as a moderately valuable major league reliever, where he went 5-5 with a 4.00 ERA. He was sent back down to be converted into a starter.

McDonald throws a 93 mph fastball and a good slow curveball but needs to develop his changeup to be a successful MLB starting pitcher. I wouldn't be surprised if he joins the MLB rotation right away.

Dotel ends his Pirate career 2-2 with a 4.28 ERA and 21 saves. He was one of my favorite players on the team and that is a great save number for a team with only 36 victories total. However, I am optimistic about the return for Dotel. Clearly either Evan Meek or Joel Hanrahan can step into his closing role; the question is whether any of the other relievers can handle Meek's seventh inning job. For what it's worth, Dotel will probably be a free agent after the year although I'd expect him to sign with a big market team after his good 2010.

UPDATE: McDonald will join the major league team.