2011 Position Preview: Starting Pitchers

The Pirates made one of the two moves I wanted to bolster their starting staff this season when they signed Kevin Correia to a two year, $8 million contract. Correia would be a back end starter almost anywhere else, but based on the spring rotation I expect him to take the Wrigley Field mound on Opening Day, April 1.

Correia is a righthander whose best pitches are a 90 mph fastball with movement and an 85 mph slider. He also mixes in a cutter, a slow curveball and a changeup. After a few inconsistent years in a swingman role, Correia had a breakout season in 2009. Last year he was hurt by the home run and posted the highest ERA of all the Padres' starters.

2008: 110 IP, 3-8, 6.05, 1.71 WHIP, 5.4 K/9
2009: 198 IP, 12-11, 3.91, 1.30 WHIP, 6.5 K/9
2010: 145 IP, 10-10, 5.40, 1.49 WHIP, 7.1 K/9

While his ERA looked bad last year, I'm not too concerned for a few reasons. Correia exceeded his career high in innings by 53 in 2009 while throwing 30% sliders. A huge jump in innings with a high percentage of sliders almost always leads to fatigue the following year. Sure enough, last year Correia had respectable stats (10-7, 4.63) in mid-August before apparently hitting a wall. One year later and at only 30 years old, Correia's arm should be more rested - especially since he threw only 15% sliders last year.

Correia's peripherals are encouraging too. In 2010, he posted his highest ever strikeout rate and also his highest ever ground ball rate, 49%. That ground ball rate makes his home run rate of 1.24 per nine innings look like bad luck. He'll also do better this year if he relies more on the slider, his best pitch. This year I'm expecting Correia to bounce back with a 4.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 7 K/9 over 190 innings.

#2 Starter: Paul Maholm
The Pirates' second longest tenured player, Maholm will hope to rebound from a very disappointing year. He had a 4.03 ERA after shutting out the Astros on three hits in July, then was rocked for a 6.81 ERA the rest of the season. I think he'll be the #2 starter this year, which slots him to pitch the home opener on Thursday, April 7.

2008: 206 IP, 9-9, 3.71, 1.28 WHIP, 6.1 K/9
2009: 195 IP, 8-9, 4.44, 1.44 WHIP, 5.5 K/9
2010: 185 IP, 9-15, 5.10, 1.57 WHIP, 5 K/9

I want to see Maholm succeed as much as anyone, but his falling strikeout numbers are cause for concern. While the lefthander did well with his slider and curveball, his 88 mph fastball looked like batting practice to MLB hitters in 2010. Batters hit .303/.360/.452 against Maholm on the year. Even if he can keep home run totals low, the odds of Maholm putting up a sub-4.00 ERA as he did in 2008 look slim to me. In 2011 I'm expecting a 4.90 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 5 K/9 over 190 innings.

#3 Starter: James McDonald
After coming to Pittsburgh in the Octavio Dotel deal, McDonald was nothing short of a revelation. He relied mainly on a 92 mph fastball which was easily the best on the starting staff, but his out pitch was a 77 mph curveball that routinely made accomplished hitters look stupid. McDonald had a 3.52 ERA for the Pirates - 2.31 in September - and accomplished the rare feat of increasing his strikeout rate despite moving from the bullpen to starting.

2008: 6 IP, 0-0, 0.00, 1.00 WHIP, 3 K/9
2009: 63 IP, 5-5, 4.00, 1.38 WHIP, 7.7 K/9
2010: 72 IP, 4-6, 4.02, 1.30 WHIP, 8.5 K/9

This season, I'm expecting McDonald to again be the Pirates' best pitcher. He's 26 and unlike most pitchers coming off breakout years, should continue to be durable since he doesn't use a slider and has never thrown more than 142 innings in a season. I'm counting on 175 innings with a 3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 8.3 K/9.

#4 Starter: Ross Ohlendorf
My associate McMillen got together a group of people last year to wear orange in the bleachers for Ohlendorf's starts in honor of his alma mater, Princeton. At the first game the group was me with an orange shirt in section 135, McMillen with an orange shirt in 138, and zero other people who even happened to be wearing orange. It was a real microcosm of Ross's season, which was undoubtedly the best ever for a starter with just one win.

2008: 63 IP, 1-4, 6.46, 1.87 WHIP, 7 K/9
2009: 177 IP, 11-10, 3.92, 1.23 WHIP, 6 K/9
2010: 108 IP, 1-11, 4.07, 1.39 WHIP, 6.6 K/9

Despite the one win season, Ohlendorf pitched well enough that he's now an established major league starter rather than a one year wonder. At 28, he shouldn't lose anything from his 91 mph fastball and can continue to improve his excellent slider. I expect Ross Ohlendorf to be effective again and healthy this year: a 3.90 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 6.5 K/9 in 175 innings.

There are several candidates for the fifth starter spot, so I'll save those for another day. I have confidence in three of Pittsburgh's top four starters, but we'll need Paul Maholm to return to form if the Pirates are to have a good rotation this season.

Ohlendorf Heads to Arbitration

The Pirates went to arbitration with Ross Ohlendorf today. As I explained earlier, this is a shortsighted move with little upside other than a small financial gain in the immediate future. Ohlendorf is hoping for $2.025 million and the Pirates offered $1.4 million. A decision should come down tomorrow.

My point as made a few days ago is that there's just no reason to argue over this. In an arbitration hearing, the team basically will present its case as to why Ross Ohlendorf sucks. There's nothing productive about that, either for his confidence or for the team's ability to resign a pretty good pitcher. Does anyone seriously think that with salaries where they are, Ohlendorf isn't worth $2.025 million? Even if the Pirates win, it will be a Pyrrhic victory indeed.

Ross Ohlendorf's Arbitration Case

As mentioned today in Jennifer Langosch's mailbag, Ross Ohlendorf is the only remaining Pirate who hasn't settled his arbitration case. Ohlendorf asked for $2.025 million while the Pirates offered $1.4 million. Let's assess his case.

You no doubt know well that Ohlendorf was ineffective in his rookie year. He went 1-4, 6.46 with the Yankees and Pirates. The fact that the '08 Yankees had to resort to Ohlendorf 25 times out of the bullpen tells you a lot about why they missed the playoffs that year.

In 2009 Ross had a breakout year in which he went 11-10 with a 3.92 ERA. Making 29 starts, he threw 177 innings with a 1.23 WHIP. The only issue was his home rum rate, 1.3 per nine innings, but he was the Pirates' best pitcher and threw well enough to be a legitimate #2 starter and 15 game winner on an average team.

Last year of course, Ohlendorf again pitched well but was the biggest victim of the Pirates' ineffective offense. Despite a 4.07 ERA he went 1-11 in 21 starts (108 innings). His WHIP went up to 1.37 but his home run rate declined to 1.0/9. Ross also was injured twice. It was the greatest lost season of all time by a pitcher.

I think it's pretty uncontroversial that Ross's worth is closer to the higher figure. But the way arbitration works hurts him in two ways. First, players only receive about 40% of their market value. At that point Ross would be fine - his figure implies only a one year, $5 million deal on the open market, a price he would certainly command.

The second issue is more problematic: Arbitration is based on a player's baseball card stats as reflected in say, 1988 Topps. So the 1-11 record in 2010 really hurts him even though we know it's no reflection on how well he pitched. Same with the ERA - it won't be looked at as good, even though we know the Pirates' defense declined to a point where his 2010 ERA is actually the most impressive of his career. For arbitration purposes he's a guy who had a bad year in 2008, a good year in 2009, and a bad year in 2010 - even though clearly he's coming off two good years.

So my conclusion here is twofold. First, the Pirates likely would win that case. And second, it's not worth it. During an arbitration case, the Pirates would be forced to, in a quasi-judicial hearing, basically make the case that Ross Ohlendorf isn't a good pitcher. This is the kind of thing that destroys team-player relationships. You will very rarely see a player who goes to an arbitration hearing end up resigning with that team.

To save $600,000, it's just not worth it. Pay the man.

Ohlendorf Out For Season

Although there was no official announcement, Ross Ohlendorf told several media members he expects to be out for the season. According to an MRI he strained a muscle in his shoulder during Monday's game. It's also possible he got hurt in warm-ups as Ross's velocity was down from the first pitch.

With the team's record at 42-84 there is really no reason to bring Ohlendorf back from the injury in September. It's better to just have him start next season at full strength.

It's hard to say whether Ross Ohlendorf had a good year or not. He ends the season 1-11 with a 4.07 ERA. He allowed 8.8 hits and 3.7 walks per nine innings with 6.6 strikeouts - more of all three than in 2009. I am optimistic about his future based on this: in July and August Ohlendorf was much more overpowering than at any point in his career with 42 strikeouts in 47 innings. He was also throwing a harder fastball that was consistently 92 or 93 mph instead of 90-91. He's a candidate to start on Opening Day 2011.

Daniel McCutchen (1-5, 6.65) will take Ohlendorf's spot in the rotation and will actually pitch tonight instead of Jeff Karstens. Karstens was scratched from the start with arm fatigue and is expected to make his next start.

McCutchen last started a game July 31 but earned another shot with a 1.93 ERA in eight relief appearances this month. His stats are still ugly but actually since his first three starts of the season, D-Cutch has a 3.90 ERA for the Pirates.

If Karstens is not available by Saturday, the likely starter is Charlie Morton, who is 4-4 with a 3.83 ERA at Indianapolis. He has a 1.50 ERA over his last four games. Morton is also giving up more than a hit an inning at AAA and is just too hittable to pitch in the majors. I certainly hope at least one free agent starter is signed so we don't see him in a position battle for the fifth starter spot out of spring training.

Ohlendorf Hurt / Penn Gone

PITTSBURGH, Pa. / April 11, 2010

No longer wanting to pitch batting practice during actual games, the Pirates designated Hayden Penn for assignment today. Penn now has a 9.51 career ERA making him a contender for worst Pirates pitcher ever. His 30.86 Pirates ERA should actually be worse, but the Dodgers stupidly made their first out against him at home plate.

I would have to think Penn clears waivers but I can't imagine it would be a good idea to keep him in the organization.

Unfortunately the reason for the move is that Ross Ohlendorf was scratched from tonight's start. Not much word on the injury but the Pirates claim he will start Sunday.

For this World Championship run the Pirates will need their top three starters to stay healthy all season, and at least one has to have a big year. Hopefully Ross only misses the one game because the rotation takes a big hit if he's replaced by anyone. Without even considering the World Series, he'll be needed to start Game 2 and a possible of the Division Series against Colorado.

This injury comes at the worst possible time, with Brian Burres the only rested starting pitcher at either Indianapolis or Pittsburgh. So Burres it is. Rather than starting at Toledo tonight he'll start at San Francisco, the Toledo of the West.

Burres has a 6.08 career ERA and gave up more than ten hits per nine innings in the Pacific Coast League last year. He was last seen giving up a three-run homer to Jason Michaels at Camden Yards in June 2008. Is it too early to get nostalgic for Jeff Karstens?

Finally, Joel Hanrahan came off the disabled list. He'll take the spot of Daniel McCutchen, who is back in Indianapolis since the Pirates won't need him again until April 25th.

Hanrahan should really help to solidify the back end of the bullpen. Hopefully Hanrahan is really healed because he's back much earlier than expected... Anyway, he's a much better 7th/8th inning option than the likes of Penn and Jack Taschner. I think the Pirates would like to go Hanrahan, Donnelly, Dotel in the last three innings. The problem right now is getting there.