2011 Position Preview: Second Base

Neil Walker was the Pirates' most pleasant surprise of 2010. Written off as a failed prospect, Walker had never really proven he could hit even AAA pitching. Last year he not only hit big league pitching but, just as impressively, learned second base at the major league level after Akinori Iwamura proved to be a bust.

Last year, Walker played in all 110 Pirates games he was available for, starting 104. He'll play every day again, which is a good thing if he can repeat or improve upon his 2010 performance, which earned him fifth place in Rookie of the Year voting.

2010: 110 Games, .296/.349/.462, 57 Runs, 12 HR, 66 RBI, 2 SB

This will be a telling year for Neil Walker as we see whether 2010 was a breakout season or simply a career year. He's 25 so of course there's room for improvement, but I think most fans would be happy with the same performance again at the plate. Not many teams have a second baseman who can hit 44 extra base hits in 110 games.

This year Walker should improve on his defense, which was respectable but below average in his first full season at second base. I also would like to see him run more on the bases - he has good speed and stole 10 bases through late May at Indianapolis, then swiped only two for the Pirates. On offense I'd be happy with a bit more plate discipline even with a slight falloff in extra base hits.

In 2011 I am looking for Walker to prove 2010 wasn't a fluke and cement his status as an above average everyday middle infielder. I'm also anticipating an injury of two weeks to a month, so I'd be happy with .280/.345/.440, 75 Runs, 14 HR, 70 RBI, and 7 steals.

2010 Pirates Awards

Not everyone on the Pirates was terrible this season. Before we turn, mercifully, to the 2011 Pirates, and because everyone cares what some random asshole thinks, let's give out some awards.

Most Valuable Player
Andrew McCutchen
McCutchen answered any questions remaining after his rookie season, hitting .286/.365/.449 while scoring 94 runs. That's 16% of the team's runs. He got 56 extra base hits, stole 33 bases, and drew 70 walks. He showed good range in center field with a flair for the spectacular play. He proved his durability, playing 154 games and starting 152 despite dealing with several injuries in the second half. He also overcame a summer slump to post the best month of the season in September/October when he hit .324/.411/.519. He drastically cut down on strikeouts as the year progressed. It was a really solid age 23 season from a star who is a breakout candidate for 2011.
Honorable Mention: Neil Walker

Most Valuable Pitcher
Evan Meek
Meek came out of nowhere to become a bona fide relief ace. He was unhittable in the first half, maintaining an ERA below 1.00 as late as July 9. Incredibly, national commentators claimed Meek shouldn't be in the All-Star Game when he entered the game with a 1.11 ERA. He had a solid second half that only looked unimpressive when compared to his first half, finishing 5-4 with a 2.14 ERA in 80 innings as batters hit only .185 against him for the season. Evan also was perfect in four ninth inning save opportunities.
Honorable Mention: James McDonald

Best Rookie
Neil Walker
Neil started the year not even ranked among Pittsburgh's Top 20 prospects, but he quickly changed that by hitting .321/.392/.560 at Indianapolis to start the season. Promoted to the Pirates in late May, Walker emerged as a legit top of the order line drive hitter with a batting line of .296/.349/.462. Though he had success early in the season as a free swinger, he worked to correct that tendency and ended up drawing 14 of his 34 walks in the season's final 21 games. He showed a good arm, decent range and sound decision making skills despite it being his first year at second base.
Honorable Mention: Pedro Alvarez

A Glimpse of the Future?

The thought occurred to me that a comatose Pirates fan - upon waking up today to read the first third of last night's box score - would see the first third of the lineup for a 90+ win team.In fact considering this year's leaguewide offensive downturn, those season numbers are much better than they look.

There's really no way to discount these numbers. Walker is 24, McCutchen is 23, and Tabata is 22. Obviously the top third of the lineup isn't going to score and drive in eight runs every day, but is there any reason to think that days like this won't happen in 2012? 2014?

This may be, as many sources have argued, the worst Pirates team ever. Don't let that discount the fact that three of the four most significant players on the roster have put up star-level performances - at ages when many valuable MLB players throughout history were still in the minor leagues. Many teams have won championships with a 1-2-3 that did not perform this well.

As a fan, would you rather have the 2007 Pirates Neil Huntington inherited, or the 2010 Pirates? In '07 the team was nominally better on the field but was primarily composed of middling veterans with no chance of being above average players over the next few years. Now the Pirates have the core of a championship level team. The Pirates' record this year is primarily due to unbelievably awful seasons by guys who (hopefully) won't be here next year.

Pedro Alvarez is another player who is almost certain to improve. It's also difficult for any team to do worse at the remaining positions than the 2010 Pirates have done. It would not surprise me if next year's club is stronger at every position.

With four young, improving and above average hitters, the Pirates can field a legitimately good lineup for 2011 with a few moderately priced free agent acquisitions. I hope that happens.

Pirates Revamp Their Lineup

PITTSBURGH, Pa. / June 11, 2010

As Pirate fans well know, the Pittsburgh offense has been a minor disaster this year. How bad is it? With 196 runs in 60 games, the hometown nine are scoring fewer runs per game than any Pirates team since the 1917 Pirates, a dead ball era team which collectively hit 9 home runs all year.

They're also a pace to score 100 fewer runs than last year's team, a team which itself finished 30th in baseball in runs.

Given all this, it was painfully necessary to start promoting hitting prospects.

Neil Walker (.321/.392/.560 at Indianapolis) was the first to come up and is now the everyday second baseman. In 15 games he's hitting .322/.365/.492 which actually makes him the best hitter in the Buccos lineup thus far, slightly ahead of even Andrew McCutchen.

Tabata Added
The other shoe dropped Wednesday. Jeff Clement and his .230 OBP was finally optioned to Indianapolis. He'll turn 27 in two months, and still looks like an AAA player. I think Clement's knees robbed him of a shot to stick in the majors, since he probably has enough pop to be a backup catcher but nothing else. With the move to first, he looks like an AAA lifer.

In exchange, the Pirates promoted Jose Tabata, .308/.373/.424 at Indianapolis. Tabata immediately becomes the everyday left fielder and leadoff hitter. Tabata is a wild card; his Indianapolis numbers were the same as McCutchen's 2008, but there are questions about his age among other things. I'd say his most comparable player is Nyjer Morgan, meaning that he should really be a starting center fielder or fourth outfielder. But despite his lack of pop, he should at a minimum tie Lastings Milledge's year to date total of zero home runs. I for one had grown tired of Milledge taking bad routes to balls in the outfield and making dumb outs on the bases.

Doumit to first
Ryan Doumit started at first base last night for the first time since 2007. Unlike Jim Tracy, current management actually had Doumit, you know, work out at first base before putting him there in a game. Mad props. Of course, first base proved to be yet another position where Doumit can mishandle a ball in the dirt leading to a run. It's unclear whether he will start at first regularly or only on his off days from catching, but I'd expect a 50/50 split as the Pirates try to build his trade value up. Regardless, this means Doumit will be in the lineup every day which obviously helps the offense.

Wherefore art thou Pedro?
The Pirates have one move left, which is to promote Pedro Alvarez. Pedro is on an absolute tear, 13-for-24 in his last seven games including six extra base hits in that span. His stats are up to .291/.380/.552, basically the same numbers that merited promoting Walker. He's also scored 40 runs and driven in 50 over 61 games and has a good walk rate.

Pedro is still striking out once a game on average but is producing about as much as a player possibly can while doing it. His K rate is still my main remaining question; if like most players he strikes out more in the major leagues, we're talking 180 strikeouts a year. The lefthander has answered questions about his platoon splits this year, hitting an absurd .320/.420/.683 against southpaws.

Current third baseman Andy LaRoche had a decent 2009 but is hitting .240/.306/.329 this season. Is that an off year or his true talent level? Consider that he's also hitting .231/.313/.349 career. Since May 5 he's driven in five runs. It's Alvarez time.

Your 2011 Pirates
Here's the lineup I think you'll see starting this coming homestand, and continuing for the rest of the season barring trades. And for that matter, in 2011 except that we might get a semi-real shortstop.

1. Tabata
2. Walker
3. McCutchen
4. Jones
5. Doumit
6. Alvarez
7. Jaramillo, Milledge or Church
8. Cedeno
9. Pitcher

Looks like a legitimate major league lineup! Wooooooo and GO BUCS!

Neil Walker Called Up

PITTSBURGH, Pa. / May 26, 2010

Neil Walker became the first of the Pirates' Big Four prospects to be called up today. He batted second and played third base as Andy LaRoche missed his fourth straight game due to back problems. Walker hit a key RBI double in the eighth. I missed the game so I can't comment on his defense, but it's hard to imagine any infielder looking worse than Delwyn Young at third base.

Walker was hitting .321/.392/.560 at Indianapolis with 18 doubles in 43 games. At this point there is nothing left for him to prove in AAA, so it's the right move to give him a shot.

The most interesting decision will come when Andy LaRoche is ready to play. LaRoche hasn't been placed on the disabled list, meaning the Pirates apparently think he'll be back at some point this week. One option is to simply make Walker the everyday second baseman. Even after getting hits in the last three games, Akinori Iwamura is hitting .166 and doesn't look worthy of blocking Walker. The other option is to make Walker an everyday utility man, rotating his position among left field, first, second and third base. And of course the worst option is to use Walker off the bench so the likes of Iwamura, Jeff Clement and Ryan Church can get into the starting lineup.

Still at Indianapolis are Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata and Brad Lincoln. My guess is that Lincoln (5-2, 3.77) will be the next player called up to take the rotation spot of either Charlie Morton or Brian Burres.

Pirates Preparing To Replace Iwamura

PITTSBURGH, Pa. / May 19, 2010

I was one of many who liked the Pirates' offseason trade of Jesse Chavez for Akinori Iwamura. Nobody expected a spectacular year from the new second baseman, but Iwamura is just 31 and had a solid career line of .281/.354/.393 - above average production for the position.

Now 39 games into the season, Iwamura is in the worst slump of his career. Since May 2 he has one hit. It's still not Memorial Day but he's now hitting .156 in 128 at bats. This is "worst player in baseball" territory.

Fangraphs recently ran a piece suggesting that Iwamura's start was the product of bad luck, considering his low batting average on balls in play. That's easy to say when you don't watch the team, but Iwamura simply hasn't been getting unlucky on his hits. The majority of his outs are on weak grounders, with some weak pop-ups sprinkled in.

Even if his hitting does rebound, there's still the matter of Iwamura's subpar range and difficulties in turning the double play. His defense doesn't look good behind the Pirates' pitch-to-contact staff. He had the reputation of an average or slightly above average defender but I'm not seeing it.

Iwamura is here on a one-year, $4.25 million contract. The Pirates would clearly love for him to put together good enough numbers to be worth trading. Yet it's hard to imagine an MLB team taking on his contract, much less giving up value in return.

Consider that Freddy Sanchez, an excellent defender who was batting .296 at the time he was traded, netted only an AA pitching prospect who doesn't strike anyone out. Iwamura, if he hits .300 from here on out, will not even be hitting .250 by the trade deadline.

While outwardly expressing confidence in their second baseman - including pinch-hitting him against Roy Halladay last night - the Pirates have been quietly preparing to replace him. The switch-hitting Neil Walker, ostensibly training to become a utility man, has recently been starting at second base every day in Indianapolis. Batting second in the lineup, Neil has raked his way to a .329/.402/.584 start. At 24 he looks major league ready now. He has good power, can steal bases, and has a good walk rate. Iwamura has only the last of those three.

We learned in 2009 that Delwyn Young isn't an everyday second baseman. Bobby Crosby, if he does play every day, should be doing it at shortstop. By the All-Star break, Neil Walker will be starting at second base every day in Pittsburgh.