2011 Position Preview: Third Base

I have rarely felt more excitement at PNC Park than the atmosphere for Pedro Alvarez's first game. Tabata and Walker are nice players, but Pedro Alvarez is the potential saviour - a bat with 40 home run potential. Alvarez will obviously be your everyday third baseman and cleanup hitter in 2011.

The last major prospect to be called up from Indianapolis last year, Pedro started 94 of 98 games after his recall. Initially, he hit poorly but fielded well. But he soon became the power-hitting, iron-gloved Pedro that we expected.

2010: 95 games, .256/.326/.461, 42 Runs, 16 HR, 64 RBI, 0 SB

Typical of a young lefthanded hitter, at age 23 Alvarez struggled against lefthanded pitching (.228/.302/.342). But his 16 home runs came in bunches that remind me of another player: Ryan Howard. The breakdown was seven home runs in 14 games from July 3-21, three in four games from Aug. 4-7, a stray homer Sept. 5, and five in 10 days from Sept. 22-Oct. 1. Once Alvarez learns to avoid extended slumps, he'll be a legitimate cleanup hitter on a championship team - that championship team being the 2011 Pirates.

The strikeout issues will always be there of course. I'm actually fine with strikeouts from a player who walks a lot, but last year Alvarez struck out 119 times and drew only 37 walks. Counting AAA he had 187 strikeouts. But counting AAA he also had 29 home runs and 117 RBI at age 23. That's an exciting young power hitter and one who already is looking like a great pick at #2 overall in 2008.

In 2011, I'm not shy about predicting a big season for Alvarez. Something like .260/.340/.490, 75 runs, 30 home runs, 100 RBI and a couple of steals. With the decreased offensive levels around baseball, that would make Alvarez one of the ten best power hitters in the National League.

Alvarez's Hot Streak

Pedro Alvarez had a perfect night tonight going 3-for-3 with a home run, a double, a walk, and two runs and RBI.

He was the NL Player of the Week last week for six games in which he hit .417 with four doubles, two homers and 13 RBI. Those RBI are no small achievement when hitting in the league's worst lineup.

After today's performance, in the last seven games Alvarez is 13-for-27 with five doubles, three homers and 15 RBI.

An Ichiro-type top of the order hitter thrives on consistency, getting a hit or two most days. Power hitters are nearly the direct opposite. A 40 home run guy may get 25 of those in eight hot weeks of the 26 week season. It says something not only that Alvarez is able to do this, but that he's able to do this at a point in the season when - if not excusable - it's at least not beyond the realm of possibility that players would stop giving their full effort.

Overall, Pedro is up to .249/.324/.449 which is great for a guy in his second pro season. Considering power is usually the last skill to manifest itself, he's definitely cemented himself as someone to be excited about for 2011 and beyond.

A Star Is Made: Alvarez Walks Off

In dramatic fashion, the Pirates won 8-7 tonight on a three-run, 10th inning homer by Pedro Alvarez. It was his tenth home run of the year and could be the highlight of the 2010 season.

The video is available here. Check the players' reaction if you still think professional athletes only care about collecting a paycheck.

From the ovation he received before his first at bat as a Pirate, it was clear that this fan base yearned for a power hitting star. But through his first 16 games Alvarez looked like he wasn't ready for prime time as he was hitting just .167/.220/.222 with no home runs and 25 strikeouts in 54 at bats.

Now only a month later, Alvarez has established himself as a legitimate power threat in the middle of the order. The walk-off homer is the culmination of a 29 game stretch in which Pedro has 10 home runs and 23 RBI along with a .275/.358/.578 batting line.

This walk off home run was Pedro's most satisfying shot since this one for Vanderbilt against archrival Memphis - and in the face of an 'Overrated' chant.



Pedro's next milestone cannot be far off: His first major league intentional walk.

Revisiting the Top 20 Prospects - Part I

PITTSBURGH, Pa. / July 13, 2010

To an increasing number of fans, it is seeming like this blog's prediction of a World Series title in 2010 might not be correct. For those of you already looking to the future, let's take a look at how the Pirates' top prospects did in the first half of the year.

Of course, the minor league season ends Labor Day weekend so each team is well over halfway through the year.

There are a lot of prospect rankings. I am using John Sickels' Top 20 rankings, which notably like most lists didn't rank Neil Walker at all. Here are grades for the top 10, the rest will be in another post. The grades are for how well these players done this year, not how good of a prospect they are overall.

1. Pedro Alvarez - B-
Alvarez hit .277/.363/.533 at Indianapolis earning a major league callup. He really struggled early but has shown some power lately and is hitting .214/.272/.381 in 24 games with Pittsburgh. His defense has been better than expected but still needs a lot of improvement. On offense, clearly he needs to either take more pitches, make better contact, or drive the ball more.

Keep in mind Alvarez is in his second professional season. I've heard a lot of negativity about him on the radio and in my forays into real life. It is too early to worry. Another player of the same age and experience, the Rangers' Justin Smoak, only hit .209/.311/.346 yet the Mariners still liked him enough to give Cliff Lee in a trade for him. A decent hitting third basema named Mike Schmidt hit only .196 at this age. I'm not concerned, yet, with what we've seen from Alvarez. Considering his great work at Indianapolis, the half season has been about what I expected.

2. Jose Tabata - A-
Tabata was promoted to Pittsburgh after hitting .308/.373/.424 at Indianapolis. In the majors he's hit .241/.323/.328 through 29 games.

While Jose's offensive production has been below average, unlike Alvarez Tabata has had good at bats even when he's made outs. He's also playing the outfield at a Gold Glove level. Considering most players his age are still in AA or High A, I am fine with his hitting so far. He needs to cut down on times caught stealing. Overall, his year has to be considered a success to this point.

3. Tony Sanchez - A-
Tony hit .314/.416/.454 at Bradenton before his season was ended after 59 games due to a broken jaw suffered when being hit in the face with a pitch.

Provided that the mental trauma of this injury does not affect Tony's approach at the plate, I am still very pleased with his season. A broken jaw is not a chronic type injury and he alredy showed more than enough to start next season with Altoona. The Florida State League is the most pitcher-friendly league in baseball and those offensive numbers are just outstanding. He would have been a legitimate MVP candidate in the league. While Sanchez loses a half season of play, that's half a season less wear and tear on his knees considering he would have started 2011 at Altoona no matter what anyway. My only concern would be that he threw out only 15% of base stealers.

4. Zack von Rosenberg - Incomplete
Still only 19, von Rosenberg is currently in the State College rotation. He's gone 0-4 with a 5.57 ERA yet has shown great control in five starts. I am not going to grade the short season guys because they've only played a month. Also it's common for prospects this young to improve dramatically even between June and August - which is hopefully happening with Zack.

5. Tim Alderson - D
Tim Alderson's season has been somewhat of a disaster. He went 7-5 with a 5.30 ERA at Altoona while allowing opposing batters to hit .307. Alderson has alternated good games with complete disaster starts, the latest of which earned him a demotion to Bradenton.

Alderson is still only 21 and certainly has time to turn things around. But at this point he's looking like a poor return for the Pirates' All-Star second baseman.

6. Brad Lincoln - B
Lincoln went 6-2, 3.16 in 11 starts at Indianapolis and earned a promotion to the big league rotation. At Pittsburgh he's gone 1-3, 5.14 in seven starts. None of his starts have been disasters but he also hasn't struck anyone out and is looking like another pitch to contact, back end starter. That's valuable but you would hope to get more out of a #4 overall pick, although it's not Brad's fault that Dave Littlefield drafted him too high.

7. Chase d'Arnaud - D
After hitting .293/.398/.454 during a breakout season in A ball last year, d'Arnaud has slumped to .240/.325/.356 at Altoona. At age 23 he should be showing a lot more to justify top prospect status. He has good range but has already made 20 errors at shortstop. Chase is still walking a lot and is 17-of-19 in stealing bases, but he'll be a utility infielder in the major leagues if he can't hit for contact better than this.

8. Starling Marte - Incomplete
Marte has missed most of the season after undergoing hand surgery, but is still hitting .283/.374/.391 in 26 games at Bradenton which is very good for a 21-year-old center fielder. On the bad side, he has 26 strikeouts and no home runs. He's only played 85 minor league games in the U.S. and will probably play in the Arizona Fall League or winter ball this offseason to get more experience.

9. Rudy Owens - A
Owens has gone 8-3, 3.00 at Altoona so far in his age 21 season. He had 81 strikeouts compared to just 17 walks. Owens was just a 28th round pick but emerged as a prospect last year when he put up a 2.10 ERA in A ball. His stock has really risen with his mastery of the AA level.

10. Ronald Uviedo - Gone
In 16 relief appearances at Altoona, the 23-year-old Uviedo had a 3.22 ERA and was striking out over a batter an inning while holding hitters to a .165 average. In one of the dumber trades in recent memory, the Pirates shipped him to Toronto for Dana Eveland, a 26-year-old righty who had a 6.45 ERA with the Jays and walked more batters than he struck out. Eveland was terrible in three games and was designated for assignment; no other team wanted him so he went to Indianapolis where he has a 15.75 ERA. Meanwhile the Blue Jays have unsuccessfully converted Uviedo to a starting pitcher.

Happy Alvarez Day!

PITTSBURGH, Pa. / June 16, 2010

A day later than I speculated, top prospect Pedro Alvarez will join the club for today's game against the White Sox. Apparently management doubted his ability to hit Freddy Garcia's 86 mile per hour fastball, so they held off until the lefthanded Alvarez could face on of the top ten lefties in the game, John Danks.

Alvarez provides some much-needed pop for the lineup. He was hitting .277/.363/.533 at Indianapolis with 13 home runs and 53 RBI. I think he'll hit sixth in the revamped lineup.

This is an exciting time for the Pirates - as exciting as a 23-41 team can be while on a nine game losing streak. I think Pirates fans will look back on this year as the year a talented young core came together, sort of like the '86 club which first featured Bonds, Bonilla and Van Slyke together.

What to Expect This Year
In the major leagues, Alvarez is not likely to hit for a good average as long as he strikes out more than once a game. However, he has walked in 12.6% of his plate appearances which is the most repeatable hitting skill. So if he hits .250 like I think he will, he'll be good for at least a .350 on base percentage. As far as power, I think Alvarez has 28 home run talent right now in his age 23 year. That means I expect 17 home runs over the rest of the season.

Fangraphs quotes a projection of .231/.299/.400. Are you serious, Fangraphs? How is Alvarez a top 10 prospect if you think he'll be no better than Steven Pearce? Conservatively I am expecting a slash line of .250/.350/.450, but of course I"m hoping for more.
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Alvarez is supposedly a below average third baseman. Fielding percentage ain't everything but his career one is .926, not good. But with a power bat I am willing to let him learn on the major league level. Andy LaRoche didn't get to nearly as many balls this year as last anyway.

Finally, Alvarez has the reputation of being slow. Eh, he had four triples at Indianapolis and attempted seven steals. I'm thinking he has average speed. Not that you'll want to hit and run with any of the guys behind him anyway.

Who goes?
Finally, there is the matter of who to drop for Alvarez. I wouldn't worry too much about that. Here are the candidates:

Ryan Church .179/.220/.208, 2 home runs
Bobby Crosby .232/.311/.305, 1 home run
Akinori Iwamura .182/.292/.267, 2 home runs
Andy LaRoche .232/.295/.316, 3 home runs
Delwyn Young .231/.268/.429, 3 home runs

What a crapfest. I think Crosby is safe because he's one of only two players on the roster who can play shortstop. His versatility to play any infield position poorly really is an asset to the team. LaRoche is superfluous but out of options and wouldn't clear waivers, so he'll remain unless there's a trade.

Delwyn Young is arbitration eligible after this year and I expect him to be non-tendered. Yet, like Crosby he has the flexibility to play many positions poorly. It wouldn't be a horrible move to release him, but there are better options:

Church and Iwamura are two pending free agents who have been absolutely awful and have no chance of returning. Iwamura would be my choice to go. If Iwamura and LaRoche both remain, we're left with three-fifths of our bench (LaRoche, Iwamura, Jaramillo) able to play only one position each. The Pirates would be eating about $3 million in salary if they make this move, but it's better than wasting the money and a bench spot.

Pirates Revamp Their Lineup

PITTSBURGH, Pa. / June 11, 2010

As Pirate fans well know, the Pittsburgh offense has been a minor disaster this year. How bad is it? With 196 runs in 60 games, the hometown nine are scoring fewer runs per game than any Pirates team since the 1917 Pirates, a dead ball era team which collectively hit 9 home runs all year.

They're also a pace to score 100 fewer runs than last year's team, a team which itself finished 30th in baseball in runs.

Given all this, it was painfully necessary to start promoting hitting prospects.

Neil Walker (.321/.392/.560 at Indianapolis) was the first to come up and is now the everyday second baseman. In 15 games he's hitting .322/.365/.492 which actually makes him the best hitter in the Buccos lineup thus far, slightly ahead of even Andrew McCutchen.

Tabata Added
The other shoe dropped Wednesday. Jeff Clement and his .230 OBP was finally optioned to Indianapolis. He'll turn 27 in two months, and still looks like an AAA player. I think Clement's knees robbed him of a shot to stick in the majors, since he probably has enough pop to be a backup catcher but nothing else. With the move to first, he looks like an AAA lifer.

In exchange, the Pirates promoted Jose Tabata, .308/.373/.424 at Indianapolis. Tabata immediately becomes the everyday left fielder and leadoff hitter. Tabata is a wild card; his Indianapolis numbers were the same as McCutchen's 2008, but there are questions about his age among other things. I'd say his most comparable player is Nyjer Morgan, meaning that he should really be a starting center fielder or fourth outfielder. But despite his lack of pop, he should at a minimum tie Lastings Milledge's year to date total of zero home runs. I for one had grown tired of Milledge taking bad routes to balls in the outfield and making dumb outs on the bases.

Doumit to first
Ryan Doumit started at first base last night for the first time since 2007. Unlike Jim Tracy, current management actually had Doumit, you know, work out at first base before putting him there in a game. Mad props. Of course, first base proved to be yet another position where Doumit can mishandle a ball in the dirt leading to a run. It's unclear whether he will start at first regularly or only on his off days from catching, but I'd expect a 50/50 split as the Pirates try to build his trade value up. Regardless, this means Doumit will be in the lineup every day which obviously helps the offense.

Wherefore art thou Pedro?
The Pirates have one move left, which is to promote Pedro Alvarez. Pedro is on an absolute tear, 13-for-24 in his last seven games including six extra base hits in that span. His stats are up to .291/.380/.552, basically the same numbers that merited promoting Walker. He's also scored 40 runs and driven in 50 over 61 games and has a good walk rate.

Pedro is still striking out once a game on average but is producing about as much as a player possibly can while doing it. His K rate is still my main remaining question; if like most players he strikes out more in the major leagues, we're talking 180 strikeouts a year. The lefthander has answered questions about his platoon splits this year, hitting an absurd .320/.420/.683 against southpaws.

Current third baseman Andy LaRoche had a decent 2009 but is hitting .240/.306/.329 this season. Is that an off year or his true talent level? Consider that he's also hitting .231/.313/.349 career. Since May 5 he's driven in five runs. It's Alvarez time.

Your 2011 Pirates
Here's the lineup I think you'll see starting this coming homestand, and continuing for the rest of the season barring trades. And for that matter, in 2011 except that we might get a semi-real shortstop.

1. Tabata
2. Walker
3. McCutchen
4. Jones
5. Doumit
6. Alvarez
7. Jaramillo, Milledge or Church
8. Cedeno
9. Pitcher

Looks like a legitimate major league lineup! Wooooooo and GO BUCS!

You Can Wear Your Alvarez Jersey Eventually

Since the 2010 season dawned, much of Pirate fans' time has been devoted to waiting for Pedro Alvarez to get called up. The wait may be longer than expected.

After being picked second overall in 2008, Alvarez hit .247/.342/.486 at Lynchburg last year. Good, but not great. The hype really began after he raked at Altoona in the second half of the year, hitting .333/.419/.590 in 60 games. Those numbers, even translated to the majors, would have made Pedro the second or third best hitter on the big league club in the late summer and fall of '09.

He earned a spring training invite and hit .296/.345/.519, doing nothing to dispel the hype. Of course those stats were compiled against the same caliber of minor league pitchers he had dominated the previous fall.

By April Pedro was viewed by most fans as this season's McCutchen: a guy who would play at Indianapolis for two months and then be called up as the franchise's saviour. Among other things, this very blog included Pedro in the World Series MVP poll where he earned 10% of the vote.

By keeping a player in AAA until June a team allows a player to play the partial major league season and three more full seasons before becoming eligible for salary arbitration and a big raise. The flip side of this is that for payroll purposes, there's really no difference between calling a star prospect up in June and calling him up the following Opening Day.

The Pirates likely began the year with those designs, but their star prospect simply hasn't hit at a level that demands a June call-up. Counting last night's suspended game, Alvarez is now hitting .250/.343/.493 with 9 home runs in 41 AAA games. That's great for a player in his second year of professional baseball. But especially for a power hitter, those aren't numbers that translate into immediate major league success.

Remember, McCutchen was drafted out of high school, signed quickly and basically had four full minor league seasons before his Pittsburgh call up. Attending college is a great choice but playing college ball does delay a player's development in terms of the age when he reaches the majors. Alvarez has only seen professional pitching for less than a year and a half.

With a league average third baseman in Andy LaRoche, the Pirates have no reason to push Alvarez until he dominates at Indianapolis. That could be at the All-Star break or it could be later. It could be in 2011.

For those fans looking west to Indianapolis for help, Jose Tabata and Neil Walker are both getting on base at a near .400 clip making them far more likely to benefit the major league team this season. Alvarez should be a great one, but it just won't happen this June.

Alvarez Has 3 Homers in 2 AAA Games

PITTSBURGH, Pa. / April 10, 2010

He didn't get much love in our World Series MVP poll, but Pedro Alvarez is already making a strong case for a McCutchen-like promotion this year.

In AAA Indianapolis's first game Thursday, he had a home run, two RBI, a walk and two runs scored. Friday night, he hit two home runs, drove in five and also walked.

Basically the main thing keeping Pedro Alvarez in the minors right now is his service time. If he stays in Indianapolis for the first 50 games or so, the Pirates will keep him under club control for another season and also push back his arbitration date by a year.

Andrew McCutchen was in the same situation last year and was brought up June 4 after the Nate McLouth trade. Cutch was a fixture in the lineup the rest of the year, missing only one start.

I think the Pirates will do the same thing with Alvarez. There's no point in keeping him in the minors beyond June unless they intended to wait until June 2011 to bring him up, which seems ridiculously long right now.

It is also apparent that Alvarez will play third base in Pittsburgh. He's playing third at Indianapolis and certainly the Pirates would be using him at another position if that's where they expected to use him here. Andy LaRoche is a decent player but there's no way he should block a prospect who has major league 30 home run power right now. I also don't think LaRoche would move to any position other than shortstop, since the Pirates have a better hitter than him at every other position.

I'm targeting June 4 again as Saviour Day. The Pirates start a three-game weekend series against the Giants that night. Predicted lineup:

Iwamura 3b
McCutchen cf
Jones rf
Doumit c
Milledge lf
Alvarez 3b
Clement 1b
Maholm p
LaRoche ss

Yes, I did line up the entire rotation until June 4 for this post. Enjoy it.