Dotel Traded For Lambo, McDonald

Dealing a huge blow to all bloggers who just designed a new banner heading featuring Octavio Dotel, the Pirates traded their closer to the Dodgers for an AA outfielder and an AAA pitcher.

Andrew Lambo is a 21-year-old corner outfielder who is currently hitting .271/.325/.420 in AA. He was ranked the 49th best prospect in baseball prior to the 2009 season but has fallen off a bit after a year and a half of pedestrian hitting numbers in Double A, coupled with a 50-game suspension this year for violating the drug policy.

However, he's at an age where many players are still in college. If he develops more power he can be a starting outfielder at the major league level in a few years. He should join Altoona's starting lineup immediately.

Also coming over is James McDonald, a 25-year-old righthanded pitcher who's currently 6-1 with a 4.41 ERA in AAA with 57 strikeouts and 24 walks in 63 innings.

McDonald pitched almost all of 2009 as a moderately valuable major league reliever, where he went 5-5 with a 4.00 ERA. He was sent back down to be converted into a starter.

McDonald throws a 93 mph fastball and a good slow curveball but needs to develop his changeup to be a successful MLB starting pitcher. I wouldn't be surprised if he joins the MLB rotation right away.

Dotel ends his Pirate career 2-2 with a 4.28 ERA and 21 saves. He was one of my favorite players on the team and that is a great save number for a team with only 36 victories total. However, I am optimistic about the return for Dotel. Clearly either Evan Meek or Joel Hanrahan can step into his closing role; the question is whether any of the other relievers can handle Meek's seventh inning job. For what it's worth, Dotel will probably be a free agent after the year although I'd expect him to sign with a big market team after his good 2010.

UPDATE: McDonald will join the major league team.

Deadline Day Arrives

Internet sites were atwitter with Paul Maholm trade discussion Friday as multiple teams still want to add a starter before today's 4 p.m. trade deadline.

Maholm's losing effort Thursday dropped his record to 6-9 and raised his ERA to 4.52. Yet NL West contenders, anxious to match Philadelphia's Roy Oswalt acquisition, were apparently nonplussed. If the Oswalt trade lifts the Phillies to the NL wild card, that leaves only one remaining playoff spot among the Padres (60-40), Giants (58-45), Dodgers (54-48) and Rockies (52-50). Maholm is the second best pitcher still available after Ted Lilly.

Pittsburgh's asking price is said to be an MLB-ready starter. Unless the Pirates are blown away, I don't see the wisdom in such a move. I am not interested in a Haren for Saunders-type lateral move which essentially exchanges a superior starting pitcher for an inferior one.

Yahoo's Tim Brown claimed the Padres and Pirates are close to a deal. The Dodgers also covet Maholm and the Mets are in the game as well. I'll believe it when I see it.

A New Catcher?
Meanwhile, there are also rumors that the Diamondbacks are considering a deal which would send catcher Chris Snyder to Pittsburgh. This is more intriguing to me because it seems like a deal to build for - rather than sacrifice - 2011.

Snyder is hitting .231/.352/.426 this year which makes him a plus offensive catcher even without my love of low average/high walk guys. He's throwing out only 20% of runners this year but has the reputation of an average defensive catcher.

Snyder is signed for $5.75 million for 2011 with a $6.75 million option for 2012. If this is another salary dump trade for the Diamondbacks, count me in. He's a better option than Ryan Doumit both at the plate and defensively. Additionally Doumit has been on and off the disabled list to the point where it's questionable that he can be counted on as an everyday catcher going forward.

Still No News On Dotel, Lopez
Conspicuously absent from trade rumors are Octavio Dotel and Javier Lopez. I still wouldn't be surprised if a potential Lopez move flew under the radar. But it seems like Dotel is likely here for the rest of this year and, if his option is picked up, 2011. A big closer move would have probably generated at least some buzz by now.

Pirates Quiet So Far At Trade Deadline

Unlike the frenzied trade deadline action of years past, the Pirates have been quiet so far with only two days remaining before Saturday's 4 p.m. nonwaiver trade deadline.

While Pittsburgh clearly possesses veterans who have significant trade value in Paul Maholm, Octavio Dotel and others, management maintains that it is not shopping any players.

The Case for Keeping Dotel
That's different, of course, than not listening to offers. The Phillies and other teams are still interested in Dotel, who would immediately become the defending NL champs' best closing option.

However, as Dotel continues to perform well his $4.5 million option for 2011 looks like a better and better value. Since May 1 Dotel has a 2.35 ERA and he also hasn't walked a batter in his last 12 straight outings.

The 2011 Pirates will have a respectable lineup which is still league average at best. To attain any level of success next year it may make sense to simply retain the Meek/Hanrahan/Dotel trio which has been the team's main strength in 2010.

Furthermore, Dotel's option becomes a mutual option if he's traded meaning that he would be a two month rental for whoever gets him. If the Pirates are inclined to trade him at all, he would presumably have the same value at this time next season as he has now.

Pittsburgh's Most Valuable Trade Piece
There are rumors that the Dodgers want Paul Maholm, 6-8 with a 4.13 ERA, who would likely draw the biggest return of any player who is a possibility to be moved.

Looking at their career statistics, it's hard to see much difference between Maholm and former Angel Joe Saunders. Saunders, of course, was apparently enough to headline a package that got Dan Haren in return.

That being said, as a guy who doesn't strike out many batters and has never pitched for a winning team, Maholm is hardly the type of shiny name that would make a splash for a big market team. I could see him bringing in a top 100 prospect but probably not a top 50 name.

I continue to think Maholm will stay put simply because of his importance in 2011 and even 2010. Maholm averaged 200 innings in 2008-09 and should throw around 190 this year. Who takes those innings if he is gone? There's no one around of major league quality who isn't already be in the rotation. Taking a six/seven inning guy and replacing him with a gas can like Daniel McCutchen is a recipe for destroying any bullpen. MLB third/fourth starters are commanding $10 million free agent contracts now for a reason, and I doubt the Pirates want to trade Maholm only to give out a contract like that to someone who is probably a lesser pitcher.

Lopez Still Drawing Interest
Multiple sources say that Javier Lopez is still drawing interest. He made his 48th appearance last night which is tied for ninth in baseball. His 2.65 ERA is also lower than all but two of the guys with more appearances. Situational lefties aren't the highest paid or most well known guys out there but there's a lot to be said for a guy who can pitch nearly every day at a high level. I still think the Pirates will deal him for a solid prospect, but at this point he could be the only player moved in the next two days.

Trade Deadline Update

I always wondered how hard it would be to write posts on the Internet consisting of trade rumors that you BSed yourself. It seems like a great business to be in. The answer is 'not hard." Since it's been a few weeks since I first looked at the Pirates trade possibilities, here's a quick update as you prepare to watch the hometown offensive juggernaut...

LIKELY TO BE TRADED

Javier Lopez - I have seen no rumors on Lopez but I still consider him the most likely Pirate to be dealt. Lopez, 2-1 with a 2.62 ERA, is one of the better lefthanded specialists in the game and is making just $775,000 on a one-year deal. Most playoff teams have multiple strong lefty hitters, and typical bullpen usage makes having two lefty specialists a near essential in the postseason. Finally Lopez has done a good enough job that he's unlikely to return to Pittsburgh.

D.J. Carrasco - Multiple teams are interested in Carrasco, 2-2 with a 3.93 ERA. I think the Pirates will take the highest offer for him. Carrasco is here on a one-year deal for $950,000, so virtually any team could afford him. The one caveat is that he's the type of pitcher who's more beneficial in the regular season than the postseason.

Octavio Dotel - Dotel, 2-2 with a 4.62 ERA and 20 saves, has attracted the interest of the Mets and others. Presumably the Marlins would be interested. But while most people in baseball expect Dotel to be moved, I'd say it's only a 50/50 shot. He has a $4.5 million club option for 2010 which converts to a mutual option if he's traded - meaning Dotel would become a two-month rental.

Dotel has struck out 11 batters per nine innings this year while holding the opposition to a .235 batting average. It wouldn't be a terrible idea for the Pirates to simply keep him and pick up his 2011 option - retaining the back end of the bullpen as a team strength for next year.

UNLIKELY TO BE TRADED

Paul Maholm - The Dodgers are reportedly pursuing Maholm. Presumably the Phillies would have interest. I don't expect Maholm, 6-7 with a 4.03 ERA, to be moved. He's signed through next year and seriously, who would pitch his 200 innings if the Pirates don't bring him back? Moreover, even if the Pirates are inclined to trade him, they could keep him for another full year and still get good value.

Brendan Donnelly - Donnelly, 3-1 with a 5.28 ERA, is on a one year deal and would presumably be available. He hasn't been linked to any rumors, probably because of his walk rate of 6.5 per nine innings.

Joel Hanrahan - Hanrahan, 2-1 with a 3.76 ERA, has drawn a lot of inquiries. Yet he's striking out 12.4 batters per nine innings and is under club control for three more years so the price will be high. Too high for any team to meet, in my opinion. There was no point in trading for Hanrahan only to turn around and move him a year later after he's done an excellent job.

Andy LaRoche - LaRoche, hitting .232/.297/.310, lost his starting job to Pedro Alvarez. Yet I think it would be shortsighted to sell low on LaRoche for this reason. He's only making $450,000; why not just keep him as infield depth?

WON'T BE TRADED

Zach Duke - Duke, 4-9 with a 5.22 ERA, simply hasn't pitched well enough this year to get much in return at the deadline. He's arbitration eligible for 2011 and will no doubt be back in the rotation with little to no raise.

Ryan Doumit - Doumit, hitting .259/.329/.412, apparently suffered a concussion in yesterday's game and went on the disabled list today. That kills his trade value for this year, if his monthlong slump didn't already. He'll be back in 2011.

Ryan Church - There's no way a team would give anything for the beleaguered fourth outfielder, hitting just .190/.246/.325. Church is on a one-year deal and is, however, a candidate to be released outright.

Akinori Iwamura - Iwamura is hitting .303/.465/.424 at Indianapolis. That's nice, but no team is giving up value or even taking on Iwamura's $4.25 million contract after his disaster first half. At best, he'll stay in AAA and help the I-Tribe's pennant chances. At worst, he'll be recalled in September and we'll be subjected to him again in Pittsburgh.

A Look Back at the 2008 Deadline Deals

With the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline less than a week away, many fans are expecting the Pirates to once again trade their best players. I think only a few minor moves will be made. That was certainly not the case two years ago however, as GM Neil Huntington was an aggressive seller at his first trade deadline.

On July 26, 2008, the Pirates were 48-55. The playoffs were out of the question with the Bucs 12 games out in the Central and 11 games behind Milwaukee for the wild card. Yet the offense was strong and a portion of the fan base favored making a run at a winning record. Huntington waved the white flag, sending reliever Damaso Marte and right fielder Xavier Nady to the Yankees for outfielder Jose Tabata and pitchers Jeff Karstens, Daniel McCutchen, and Ross Ohlendorf.

This deal was certainly a success. Nady, hitting an absurd .330/.383/.535 at the time of the deal, was sold at his highest possible value. He hit .268/.320/.474 with the Yankees the rest of '08, then missed all but seven games in 2009 with injuries while earning $6.55 million. He signed with the Cubs as a free agent and has been awful this year. Marte, 4-0 with a 3.47 ERA at the time of the trade, is still with the Yankees but has been mostly ineffective ever since with a 6.02 ERA in pinstripes.

Tabata, the deal's centerpiece as Baseball America's #38 national prospect, has shown quite a bit of promise two years later as a 21-year-old rookie. He's hitting a pedestrian .266/.335/.364 but has excellent speed and defense and a good approach at the plate. Count this as a win for the Pirates' scouting department; he was hitting only .248 at Double-A at the time of the deal but was a consistent .300 hitter in the Pirates' system.

Ohlendorf was a solid second piece. He wasn't ready for the majors in '08 but was Pittsburgh's top starting pitcher last year, going 11-10, 3.92. This year he got hurt early and struggled to a 1-7, 4.62 mark although he's had a number of very good starts lately.

Karstens has been serviceable in three Pirates seasons with a 4.93 ERA in a swingman role. He remains under club control for three more seasons. Dan McCutchen is the lone failure in the group as he looks like he won't amount to more than an AAA pitcher.

On July 31, 2008, the Pirates were involved in the year's biggest blockbuster. Left fielder Jason Bay went to the Red Sox in a three-team deal that brought in pitchers Craig Hansen and Bryan Morris, third baseman Andy LaRoche and right fielder Brandon Moss. This was of course the same deal that sent Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers. This one looks like an unmitigated disaster.

Bay, hitting .282/.375/.519 at the time of the trade, immediately replaced Manny in the Red Sox lineup and hit .293/.370/.527 the rest of the way. He hit .341 with three home runs in the playoffs that year. Returning in 2009, Bay hit .267/.284/.537 and drove in 119 runs, finishing seventh in the MVP voting.

LaRoche, the deal's centerpiece, was ranked the #31 prospect in baseball prior to 2008. He had hit .295/.382/.517 in the minor leagues, leading the Pirates to overlook his .217/.348/.316 big league line with the Dodgers. Yet that performance now looks like Andy's true talent level, as he's hit only .231/.303/.348 in 266 Pirates games. He's a solid fielder but simply didn't hit enough to keep the third base job.

Moss was a 24-year-old outfielder with strong defense who had already hit .291/.348/.456 in 49 games with the Red Sox. The stale hot dog buns at PNC Park are apparently no Fenway Franks, as Moss hit only .232/.300/.381 in 178 Pirates games - not even enough to merit a reserve role. At age 26, he's putting up middling numbers at Indianapolis.

The jury is still out on Morris, the Dodgers' first round pick in '06. He dominated at Bradenton this year but has put up a 4.78 ERA at Altoona, albeit with solid peripherals. At age 23 I would like to see a better performance.

Hansen was the most puzzling inclusion since he already had pitched 74 big league games with a 6.15 ERA. I am not sure why the Pirates persist in acquiring pitchers with a proven track record of putting up a 6 ERA in the major leagues. They've done it three times already this year with Hayden Penn, Dana Eveland and Sean Gallagher. Hansen put up a 6.95 ERA here and has been on the Indianapolis disabled list all season. Truthfully I forgot about him entirely before looking up trades for this post.

The Pirates immediately started to play out the string lackadaisically and were 57-70 on August 21, 2008 when Huntington made his final move of the season. Third baseman Jose Bautista went to Toronto for catcher Robinzon Diaz.

This deal was another disaster. Bautista has hit .236/.346/.472 with Toronto since the trade and remains under the team's control for 2011. He's the current AL home run leader and is drawing a lot of interest at the current trade deadline; presumably the Jays are receiving better offers than Robinzon Diaz. Diaz, for his part, hit .289/.315/.363 in 44 games for Pittsburgh before leaving as a free agent. He's catching for the Tigers' AAA team. His offense wasn't bad but he couldn't actually catch, to the point where he led the NL in passed balls last year despite catching in only 33 games.

The remaining Pirates were unwatchable for most of the rest of 2008. Of course that is mainly because I didn't have a TV in Pittsburgh until October. Nevertheless, but they went 17-37 after the Bay trade to finish 67-95.

The Lessons Learned
It is a strange trio of trades - one hit and two misses.

Somewhat incomprehensibly, one and a half years of Bay, a bona fide star, brought the Pirates less in return than the complementary pieces Nady and Marte.

This happened even though the Pirates were clearly in the superior bargaining position. The Red Sox absolutely had to deal Manny Ramirez and there was no one out there other than Bay who could replace his production. Yet they didn't even have to kick in a top 100 prospect to make the deal.

In the Nady/Marte trade, the Pirates gave up both players at the peak of their value and got a package that seemed like more than fair value even at the time. Yet the Bay trade, consummated at the last possible minute, seems more like settling for the best possible package. Bay was hitting at exactly the level he had hit at for his whole career, and would have brought a huge return in a trade even had the Pirates waited a full year until July 2009.

At this year's trade deadline, the Pirates' most valuable piece is undoubtedly Paul Maholm. Yet like Bay, Maholm is a player who will retain value, both in trade and on the field, for another full year. So there's no reason to deal him unless the Pirates are truly overwhelmed. Certainly I wouldn't give him up, as the Pirates did bay, for a package headlined by a player who is already performing poorly in the major leagues.

Cliff Lee is a more recent lesson. The lefthander, traded three times in the past year, brought the most in return in the most recent trade. How is he worth more with 0.5 years remaining on his contract than with a full year or 1.5 years? Because someone was willing to give it. The Indians felt rushed to deal Lee at last year's deadline but could have benefitted from his services for a full season and gotten more in return by waiting another full year.

Regarding the Baustista deal, this deal went down the day after I moved to Pittsburgh and mystified me at the time. Bautista had hit .241/.329/.403 in five Pirates seasons, spending time at all three outfield positions as well as first, second and third base. One would think that is the perfect formula for a utility guy. Yet somehow, after Andy LaRoche hit .160 for three weeks at one of the six positions Bautista could play, the Pirates decided he would be worth over the next three years and change than a backup catcher.

The lesson of this deal is that a team should not give up major league talent for nothing, just because there appears to be no place to play the player. Of course the man this applies to is none other than Andy LaRoche.

LaRoche is currently hitting .228 with three home runs. Do you think any owners are telling their GMs, "Make a deal for a corner infielder with three home run power!"? I have seen LaRoche's name in trade rumors, but trading him now would sell him at his lowest possible price - likely a useless piece like Diaz. He has more value to this team just sticking around as a backup.

Trade Possibilities: D.J. Carrasco

PITTSBURGH, Pa. / July 2, 2010

In this post, let's look at the final player the Pirates might reasonably trade: righthanded reliever D.J. Carrasco.

For a guy the Pirates signed on the mistaken belief that he could play classic house music in the Hall of Fame Club, D.J. Carrasco has done pretty well with a 3.98 ERA in 40 innings over 35 games.

Carrasco has pitched to an ERA below 4.00 for three years in a row now. He also threw 93 innings last year so he should have a lot left in the tank for anyone who acquires him. He's also earning $950,000 this year so any team in baseball could afford his salary.

Why Trade D.J. Carrasco?
Carrasco is 33 years old and in Pittsburgh on a one year deal, so whatever he can do down the stretch will be more valuable to a contending team. He's shown enough to have value, but it's difficult to imagine him being a part of Pittsburgh's next playoff team.

The case against any of these trades, in part, is that the Pirates must maintain some level of legitimacy as a major league club if they expect to retain a fan base. It's also difficult to develop young players in a situation where there's no hope of winning. The Mariners are out of contention but recently traded for Russell Branyan, a 34-year-old slugger, in an attempt to create a winning atmosphere. I'm not sure that approach is entirely wrong.

What Would The Pirates Get?
A mid-level prospect or two mediocre prospects. Carrasco might bring a slightly worse return than Javier Lopez, since Lopez is seen as a late inning option due to his lefty arm. Yet Carrasco is not a worse pitcher than Lopez and he has the ability to throw more innings.

Who Would Want Carrasco?
ALmost every team wouldn't mind adding a reliever. Even for those whose bullpens look set, someone is bound to become injured or ineffective. Here are the best candidates:

1. Chicago White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen named Carrasco as his 2009 MVP, was disappointed that he wasn't re-signed and would definitely love to have Carrasco back. Carrasco would clearly improve his old team, which is currently deploying three relievers with ERAs above 5.00 on a regular basis.

2. Apart from Arthur Rhodes, the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen is their biggest weakness. A small market team can't afford to miss a chance at a playoff run, so they're certain to make some moves. Carrasco would solidify the front end of the Reds' bullpen and could set up over Nick Masset as well.

3. The Detroit Tigers really need to do something to replace Joel Zumaya. Carrasco isn't that guy but he could cover innings that open up with everyone else moving back an inning.

The Verdict
Trade him. Carrasco has done well, but he's going to be a free agent and isn't likely to move up the Elias rankings high enough to merit draft pick compensation. Like it or not, 2010 is a lost season. Trade him, but only for a player who can help in the drive for 82-80 in 2011.

Trade Possibilities: Paul Maholm

PITTSBURGH, Pa. / June 29, 2010

Returning from a ten day blackout, we present the trade possibilities for the Pirates' best trading chip, Paul Maholm. Note on the blackout: If MLB can black out Orioles games in southeastern North Carolina for being home games, then we can black out the WFC Blog in Pittsburgh. Anyway, Maholm illustrated his value to a contending team with his eight inning, one run game last night.

Why Trade Paul Maholm?
Quite simply, Maholm is the one player likely to bring the most return. He could be a #4 starter for a playoff team, meaning he could bring in more value than anyone else on the roster.

Maholm is the best starter on the team and gives the club six innings or more almost every time out. He's also signed to a club-friendly deal through next season with an option for 2012. Yet, this team is 26-50 and it's hard to imagine anyone in this group being untouchable.

What would the Pirates get?
Looking ahead to 2011, the Pirates have needs at shortstop and right field. I think they wouldn't give up their most valuable trading piece without getting a top shortstop or outfield prospect in return - one who can contribute in 2011. A starting pitcher would also be desired, but that would be a lateral move without the aforementioned prospect.

Who Would Want Maholm?
Almost every team in the league could use Maholm. His 3.98 ERA would be an improvement over everyone's fifth starter, and he's good enough to be a fourth starter on a playoff team meaning, of course, he would start in the playoffs. Here are some of the notables:

1. The Philadelphia Phillies are known to be in the market for a mid-tier starting pitcher. Kyle Kendrick (4-2, 4.71) or Joe Blanton (3-5, 6.53) would head to the bullpen if such a move were made. The Phillies have added a pitcher at the last four trade deadlines and seem certain to do so again. Maholm's pitch-to-contact game would work perfectly with Philadelphia's strong left side infield defense of Gold Glove winners Placido Polanco and Jimmy Rollins.

2. The Boston Red Sox are always active at the trade deadline and are currently in need of starting pitching. Like Philadelphia they have strong left side infield defense with Adrian Beltre and Marco Scutaro, and would seem to be a great fit for Maholm. The Sox, like the Phillies, are also a past trading partner of the Pirates.

3. The Detroit Tigers, if they expect to overtake Minnesota in the AL Central, could do without Rick Porcello (4-7, 6.14) in their rotation.

The Verdict
Keep him. Unless the Pirates are overwhelmed by a deal for Maholm, there's no reason to jettison their ace. Last week's disaster start notwithstanding, Maholm gives six to seven innings every time out. I'm generally opposed to any deal which sacrifices the next season and it's hard to believe the Pirates could get enough in return to be better in 2011. That being said, this is a qualified "Keep Him" since I would certainly listen to offers.

Trade Possibilities: Zach Duke

PITTSBURGH, Pa. / June 18, 2010

I really thought this Trade Possibilities series might generate a lot of work. Fortunately or unfortunately, the Pirates have very few players who it would be reasonable to trade. So far I've considered Octavio Dotel, who I would trade, and Ryan Doumit, who I'm against trading. Today, Zach Duke.

Why Trade Zach Duke?
Management made a statement about Zach's future with the team when unlike their handling of Paul Maholm, the Pirates didn't sign Duke to a contract even to guarantee his salary through his arbitration years.

While Duke has had his moments including starting the past two Opening Days for the Pirates, the fact remains that he's 40-63 with a 4.41 ERA for his career, 3-8 with a 5.49 ERA this year. He's earning $4.3 million this year and hasn't been worth that amount. On a playoff team he'd be a fifth starter; it's difficult to imagine Duke as a key piece on the next contending Pirates team.

What would the Pirates get?
Not much considering his recent past. Maybe one mid-level prospect or two marginal ones. Duke's above average 2009 is fresh enough in teams' memories that the Pirates at least wouldn't have to send money in the deal.

Who Would Want Duke?
I highly doubt Duke's pitch-to-contact game would play well in the American League, apart from possibly the American League Central. He's a better fit for an NL club. Unfortunately there's only one National League contender whose rotation members are not all pitching better than Duke right now.

The Philadelphia Phillies' Joe Blanton is 1-5 with a 7.28 ERA. Duke would arguably be an upgrade over Blanton or Kyle Kendrick. The Phillies' playoff hopes are far from secure, so even adding a fifth starter would help them to reach the playoffs. Yet it seems likely to me that Pedro Martinez will come back to the Phillies, in addition to a possible move for a top level starter.

The Verdict
Keep him. Duke's value is too low right now to be worth trading. At least his poor season will prevent him from getting much of a raise for 2011. With the lack of other starting options, penciling Duke into the 2011 rotation is a better idea than any of their other internal options. If the Pirates are out of contention again in 2011 and Duke is pitching well, that would be the time to trade him.

Trade Possibilities: Octavio Dotel

PITTSBURGH, Pa. / June 17, 2010

So I was on hand to watch the Pirates lose again last night. They've now lost ten games in a row and are 23-42. If it weren't for the necessity of redoing the meticulously crafted banner at the top of this page, I'd say it's time to give up on the 2010 championship.

All this means that the Pirates will no doubt be selling at the trade deadline once again. Yesterday I considered the possibility of trading Ryan Doumit, concluding that the Pirates should keep him. Today let's take a look at Octavio Dotel.

Why Trade Octavio Dotel?
Octavio has done a decent job this year, saving 12 of 15 chances, and is one of my favorite players on the team. He's been overpowering at times and averages 12 strikeouts per nine innings.

That being said, he also has a 5.84 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP. Next year will be his age 37 season. Dotel's contract has a $4.5 million option for 2011 but it seems likely that the Pirates will buy him out for $500,000.

The stats make it unlikely that a contending team would add Dotel as a closer. However, his ugly ratios are inflated by a couple of blowout gaemes. He's shown enough stuff to be a valuable piece in a playoff bullpen. There should be a market for Dotel since as a general rule, all teams need bullpen help all the time.

Moving Dotel would also allow the Pirates to give Evan Meek a look at closer. Meek has been nothing short of great, with an 0.72 ERA and an 0.85 WHIP. However, we have all seen pitchers who are great in a setup role but can't close to save their lives. By giving Meek a tryout this year, the Pirates still retain the option of returning him to the setup role and signing a new free agent closer. That wouldn't be possible if he's given the job in 2012 and bombs then.

What would the Pirates get?
Most likely another reliever, either an AA or High Class A prospect or a young, low leverage major league guy. There's no reason to dump Dotel for nothing, but other clubs also aren't looking at him as a blockbuster target to put a team over the top.

Who Would Want Dotel?
Octavio flamed out for the Yankees in 2006 to the tune of a 10.80 ERA and 2.90 WHIP. It's difficult to imagine the Yankees adding him again. The Padres bullpen looks set. Almost any other contending team would be a possibility. The best matches look like:

1. The Los Angeles Angels bullpen has been a minor disaster. Righthanders Scot Shields (6.23 ERA, 2.03 WHIP), Matt Palmer (6.26 ERA, 2.04 WHIP) and Brian Stokes (7.31 ERA, 2.50 WHIP) have all been awful yet are still on the active roster. There's no excuse for a contending team to have three pitchers with WHIPs above 2.00. Dotel would be a clear upgrade over any of the three.

2. The Toronto Blue Jays might look to upgrade their bullpen as Scott Downs and Shawn Camp have really been the only reliable options. Toronto manager Cito Gaston also has a notable love of veterans. The Jays don't have as much money as their divisional rivals New York and Boston but will need to do something, other than for Jose Bautista to hit home runs, to stay within shouting distance.

3. The Philadelphia Phillies have a couple of questionable arms in their bullpen in Antonio Bastardo and David Herndon. Dotel would be an upgrade over either. The Phillies might like to add a pitcher with closing experience since Brad Lidge has already been on the DL twice this year.

The Verdict
Trade him. I like Dotel, but he's unnecessary considering the emergence of Evan Meek. Unless the Pirates plan on picking up his option which is doubtful, there is really no reason to keep Dotel around if a younger reliever can be had for him. He'll still be remembered for his sweet scoreboard video.

Trade Possibilities: Ryan Doumit

PITTSBURGH, Pa. / June 16, 2010

I know, I know, I claimed the Pirates would win the World Series this year. I'm not giving up just yet, but it's a fact that the team's record is 23-41 and they're behind, well, every team in the National League in the playoff race. This being Pittsburgh, it's looking likely that once again the Pirates will be sellers at the trade deadline.

I expect nothing close to the carnage of 2009, when Adam LaRoche, Freddy Sanchez, Jack Wilson, Nyjer Morgan, Nate McLouth, Eric Hinske, Ian Snell and Sean Burnett all left Pittsburgh via trade. Nevertheless, the Pirates will no doubt be listening to offers for several players on their roster. In the coming days I'll take a look at the players who could be on the way out.

Why Trade Ryan Doumit?
As the old maxim goes, any player with a bobblehead is likely to get traded by the Pirates. Ryan Doumit falls into this category.

Of all the Pittsburgh position players who can actually hit, Doumit is the only one who's not here on a cheap contract with many years of club control remaining. He's hitting .273/.351/.444 which are numbers good enough to draw interest in a trade.

One reason to potentially trade Doumit is that as a below average defender, he has more value to an American League team. He's cost the Pirates more than a few runs this year with his defense. But in the AL, Doumit could DH every day and also serve as a backup catcher to whatever team traded for him. Many AL teams are using crap at DH and almost all are using crap at the backup catcher spot. Doumit would fill both roles with one roster spot.

It's also not beyond the realm of possibility that another team would trade for Doumit in order for him to be their starting catcher. Sure, he's been bad on balls in the dirt and at throwing out baserunners. However, some teams just value offense more highly than defense as an organizational philosophy. Washington comes to mind. Also, no general manager has seen every game Doumit has caught this season. You would have to watch the team quite a bit to realize just how bad he's been behind the plate.

With Tony Sanchez as their catcher of the future, the Pirates may want to trade Doumit while he's hitting and healthy. He's spent time on the disabled list every year of his career except for 2010.

Doumit is making $3.55 million this year, $5.1 million in 2011 and has club options for $7.25 million in 2012 and $8.25 million in 2013. That's a big contract for a Pirate but many large market teams easily could pay it.

What would the Pirates get?
Victor Martinez is an apt comparison. Martinez was traded last year from the Indians to the Red Sox. Like Doumit he's a good hitting catcher with a below average defensive reputation. At the time of his 2009 trade Martinez was hitting .284/.368/.464, comparable to Doumit's 2010 numbers, and like Doumit is now, V-Mart was coming off a year when he hit poorly and lost half the season to injury. Victor also had a year and a half left on his contract.

For Martinez the Indians got three pitchers. Justin Masterson headed the deal. Masterson was a 24-year-old righthanded starter with a 3.76 career ERA and 7.6 K/9 at the time of the trade. Not bad numbers in the AL East. 22-year-old lefthander Bryan Price, who was the #45 overall draft pick in '08 but had a 6.54 ERA for Boston's high Class A affiliate, nevertheless strikes out a lot of minor league hitters and was a legitimate prospect at the time of the trade. Nick Hagadone, the $55 overall pick in 2007, like Price was striking out more than a batter an inning at Class A. Yet he was also a 23-year-old low Class A reliever with no command.

Of course, Ryan Doumit would probably yield less than Martinez because his career just hasn't been as good. But he's not light years behind either. A Masterson-type pitcher might get a deal done without the two other pitchers.

Who Would Want Doumit?
I see three contending teams that would greatly improve by adding Doumit, along with a fourth that could be contending if they get on a hot streak. More teams could enter the picture with injuries, which are of course common at the catcher position.

1. The Tampa Bay Rays have the third best offense in the American League but has been getting poor production from their DH spot all year. With Pat Burrell released, Hank Blalock (.250/.291/.356) and Willy Aybar (.248/.273/.400) have been splitting time. Doumit would represent a clear upgrade over both. One problem with this destination is that Tampa is one of a few major league teams that actually has two good catchers, John Jaso and Kelly Shoppach.

2. The first place Texas Rangers have been using Matt Treanor as their starting catcher. The 34-year-old backstop is hitting .218/.303/.371, showing why he's never previously been a starter in his career. Texas has Taylor Teagarden and Jarrod Saltalamacchia both hitting poorly in the minors. Doumit would help their lineup quite a bit. However, Doumit wouldn't be able to DH at all in Texas with Vladimir Guerrero raking at the position.

3. The Chicago White Sox have been getting awful production from both the catcher and DH spots. Catcher A.J. Pierzynski (.236/.277/.372) should at a minimum be sitting against lefthanders. The White Sox have used various players at DH with Mark Kotsay (.202/.299/.364) the most common choice. Doumit would greatly upgrade the Sox lineup at either spot. The problem here is that it's unclear whether the 29-34 Sox will be buying or selling at the deadline. Pierzynski also has ten-and-five rights meaning he can't be traded without his approval.

4. Finally, the San Francisco Giants, in contention in the NL West on the strength of their pitching, have Bengie Molina as their starter hitting .256/.312/.337. The Giants could decide Molina is washed up at 35. I think this is a long shot because he drove in over 81, 95 and 80 runs for them the past three seasons with 19, 16 and 20 home runs.

The Verdict
Keep him. Unless the trade netted a major league catcher in return, losing Doumit would leave an immediate hole the Pirates are unable to fill. Jason Jaramillo is hitting .172/.246/.259 this year.

Perhaps the 2010 impact is irrelevant, but a Doumit trade would arguably constitute giving up on 2011 as well. Tony Sanchez is a great prospect, the best prospect the Pirates have who's still in the minors, but he's also playing at Bradenton. There's no way he'll be playing in Pittsburgh next year. Yet he probably will be in 2012. Trading Doumit would thus create a need for a catcher who is signed through 2011 only, which is exactly what Doumit himself is. No above average hitter would come here on a one year contract in 2011, so it's Doumit or some garbage free agent.

In his first five years Doumit threw out between 22 and 40% of baserunners, league average numbers. Thus this year's caught stealing numbers look like an aberration. More concerning is his poor performance in catching breaking pitches in the dirt, but with no other viable options that it something the Pirates have to live with (while working with Doumit on eliminating the problem).

Sanchez could progress to the point where by mid-2011 he represents an immediate upgrade to Doumit. If that happens, the time to deal Doumit will have come. It hasn't yet.