Duke, LaRoche, Young Released

The Pirates cut ties with one of their longest tenured players yesterday, as they designated lefthanded starter Zach Duke for assignment. Bench players Delwyn Young and Andy LaRoche were also designated, and all three will likely become free agents.

Starting in 2002, Duke went 42-16 with a 2.38 ERA in four minor league seasons to establish himself as a top prospect. He was called up in July '05 and went 8-2, 1.81 that year, finishing fifth in Rookie of the Year voting. The following year, Duke was a league average pitcher as he went 10-15, 4.47, throwing 215 innings. That was a solid age 23 season, but it was also one he would never improve on. He looked to have put things together in 2009, when he had a 3.38 ERA and 10 wins in late August, but he imploded down the stretch that year and then was hit hard in almost every start in 2010. Overall he went 45-70, 4.54, giving up nearly 11 hits per nine innings over his six years in Pittsburgh.

I really enjoyed watching Zach Duke on nights when he was on. There were always men on base, and opposing hitters would struggle mightily to make solid contact off his seemingly hittable stuff. First-and-third, one out rallies would end in nothing, and frustrated hitters would come back hacking inning after inning, only to end the night having scored only two runs although only two batters struck out. And he could be unhittable too: Duke's masterpiece four hit shutout at the '09 home opener remains one of the two or three best pitched games I've seen in person.

In 2011, his final year of arbitration, Zach Duke would have made $5 million. The Pirates can bring in a better pitcher for the same amount. But for a 20th round pick to even make 159 starts by age 27, including two Opening Day starts, is not bad at all. I'm glad he won his final home start here in Pittsburgh. Like John Russell, Duke had to go but I wish him the best. Someone will sign him as a fifth starter in 2011.

Delwyn Young's .258/.317/.393 career line actually isn't bad for a bench bat who can play infield and outfield positions. Of course, he couldn't play any of those positions well. He's too good for AAA but has no place on a contending MLB team. Someone will give him a bench job in 2011.

Andy LaRoche was a credible third baseman in 2009; not so much in 2008 and 2010. He now has a career .224/.304/.338 batting line, and also had negative defensive value this season. For a guy who can only play one position, that spells a minor league job in 2011.

Duke Should Be Non-Tendered

Most fans have realistically stopped paying attention to the 2011 Pirates, but the starting pitching for 2011 is one important issue that is working itself out right now.

Zach Duke is one of the team's elder statesmen, having been a Pirate since 2005, and was this year's Opening Day starter. Yet with 156 starts under his belt there's a real chance last night's eight earned run performance was Duke's last as a Pirate. Manager John Russell indicated that Duke's status in the rotation for the rest of 2010 would be re-evaluated. But what about 2011?

Duke was an All-Star last year after a first half that saw him post a 3.29 ERA and 1.21 WHIP while averaging a cool seven innings a start. Since then he has been rather terrible. In 2009's second half he went 3-8 with a 5.17 ERA as batters hit .318/.346/.499 against him. That was bad but Duke has been worse throughout this year: 7-14 with a 5.78 ERA as opposing batters hit .327/.378/.516.

For some perspective, Roberto Clemente hit .317/.359/.475 for his entire career. For a year and a half Zach Duke has made the set of all NL batters into a slightly better version of Clemente.

This year Duke is earning $4.2 million. He is entering his third year of arbitration meaning the club has two choices. They can either tender him a contract - retaining him next year for either an arbitrator's award or an agreed upon sum - or they can non-tender him, which would cut ties with Duke and make him a free agent.

Despite Duke's awful season, players rarely if ever get a pay cut in arbitration. I see no reason for the Pirates to tender Duke a contract. Why bring Duke back at say, $4.4 million? If Duke was a free agent from another team, in 2011 he's a guy who would likely be a non-roster invitee at this point with a split major league/minor league contract for something like $800,000/$200,000.

There's also the possibility of the team agreeing with Duke before the tender deadline on some amount between the minimum salary and the likely arbitration award. But I don't see anything in Duke's performance that should merit bending over backwards to bring him back. Never a stuff guy, he's lost velocity on all his pitches this year and now features an 87 mph fastball with an array of mediocre or worse offspeed stuff. That's not a formula for success in this league. His only positive aspect is his durability, and the ability to make 30+ starts and get pounded is an ability this team doesn't need.

Trade Possibilities: Zach Duke

PITTSBURGH, Pa. / June 18, 2010

I really thought this Trade Possibilities series might generate a lot of work. Fortunately or unfortunately, the Pirates have very few players who it would be reasonable to trade. So far I've considered Octavio Dotel, who I would trade, and Ryan Doumit, who I'm against trading. Today, Zach Duke.

Why Trade Zach Duke?
Management made a statement about Zach's future with the team when unlike their handling of Paul Maholm, the Pirates didn't sign Duke to a contract even to guarantee his salary through his arbitration years.

While Duke has had his moments including starting the past two Opening Days for the Pirates, the fact remains that he's 40-63 with a 4.41 ERA for his career, 3-8 with a 5.49 ERA this year. He's earning $4.3 million this year and hasn't been worth that amount. On a playoff team he'd be a fifth starter; it's difficult to imagine Duke as a key piece on the next contending Pirates team.

What would the Pirates get?
Not much considering his recent past. Maybe one mid-level prospect or two marginal ones. Duke's above average 2009 is fresh enough in teams' memories that the Pirates at least wouldn't have to send money in the deal.

Who Would Want Duke?
I highly doubt Duke's pitch-to-contact game would play well in the American League, apart from possibly the American League Central. He's a better fit for an NL club. Unfortunately there's only one National League contender whose rotation members are not all pitching better than Duke right now.

The Philadelphia Phillies' Joe Blanton is 1-5 with a 7.28 ERA. Duke would arguably be an upgrade over Blanton or Kyle Kendrick. The Phillies' playoff hopes are far from secure, so even adding a fifth starter would help them to reach the playoffs. Yet it seems likely to me that Pedro Martinez will come back to the Phillies, in addition to a possible move for a top level starter.

The Verdict
Keep him. Duke's value is too low right now to be worth trading. At least his poor season will prevent him from getting much of a raise for 2011. With the lack of other starting options, penciling Duke into the 2011 rotation is a better idea than any of their other internal options. If the Pirates are out of contention again in 2011 and Duke is pitching well, that would be the time to trade him.

Rotation Set: Duke 1st, McCutchen 5th

PITTSBURGH, Pa. / March 24, 2010

Completely disregarding the results of the Pirates WFC Blog poll, the Pirates have named Zach Duke the Opening Day starter for Monday, April 5th.

Although Paul Maholm started the opener last year, my preference was to go with Duke because of his performance in last year's home opener. He shut out the Astros on four hits and was dominant throughout the game, something that's quite rare for a pitch to contact guy. Furthermore, look at him. Put an R next to his name and he could win a county commissioner election in any hinterlands county of Western PA.

It will be the lefty's second ever true Opening Day start. Zach also rose to the occasion in 2007 giving up two runs over seven innings, although the Paulino-led lineup only got him a no-decision. I love lefthanded pitching.

The Dodgers haven't named Duke's opponent yet. I think Joe Torre will let his young pitchers, Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley, pitch the second and third games. That would leave either Hiroki Kuroda or Vicente "No N" Padilla to pitch the opener. My vote is Padilla because he's more likely to get lit up.

Ross Ohlendorf will start the second game of the season on Wednesday the 7th. Paul Maholm will start Thursday the 8th. Charlie Morton will start Friday the 9th at Arizona with Duke making his second start on the 10th.

Finally as predicted here and virtually nowhere else, Daniel McCutchen won the fifth starter job. In the clearest indication yet that the Pirates are basing their personnel decisions on the WFC Blog, Kevin Hart was sent to Indianapolis. McCutchen is a solid six inning/three run kind of guy which is the best any team gets from their fifth starter. He'll only start two games in April, neither of them at home, as the Pirates will give their top four guys the maximum number of starts. Another good decision.

Backing this pretty solid rotation will be a lineup that looks like this:

CF McCutchen
2B Iwamura
RF Jones
C Doumit
LF Milledge
3B LaRochetat
1B Clement
SS Cedeno

Not quite as impressive. The 5-6-7 spots could change but I'm pretty sure of the others. It's time for Ryan Doumit to put together a 25 home run year out of that cleanup spot.