The 2011 Starting Rotation

The Pirates' starting pitching was rather terrible in 2010. Collectively our starters went 34-84 with a 5.28 ERA. Opposing hitters (including pitchers) hit .297/.354/.476 against Pirates starters. Needless to say changes are needed in the rotation.

There are three guys definitely returning, and Pittsburgh should look outside the organization for more help. There's no trade bait worth trading so that means signing two free agents. Any major league team needs a legitimate (non-Morton) starter every time out.

RETURNING
James McDonald was nothing short of a revelation after the Dotel trade. He went 4-5, 3.42 in two months and showed flashes of dominance despite the fact that this was his first real shot at starting in the majors. All three of McDonald's pitches had positive values. I expect him to add a fourth pitch in the off-season and be as good or better in 2011.

Ross Ohlendorf went 1-11, 4.07 in 2010. He pitched well but was probably the most unlucky starter in the majors as he got no run support and was injured three different times including two DL trips. The injuries are worrisome, but this was Ross's second straight solid season and there's no reason not to have him in the 2011 rotation.

Paul Maholm went 9-15, 5.10 in 2010 which was his worst year so far. Overall his numbers are a respectable 47-59, 4.48 in six seasons. The Pirates' defense was much worse in 2010 than in previous years which may partially explain his off year. Nevertheless, he's going to have to be better in 2011. Maholm is set to earn $5.75 million next year, so the best thing to do is chalk up 2010 as an off year and hope for better results.

OUT OF THE ROTATION
Pitching their way out of a job were Charlie Morton (2-12, 7.57) and Zach Duke (8-15, 5.72). Unquestionably Morton has good stuff, but he proved in 2010 that he is just too unreliable to pitch in the major leagues. People have argued this point but it is unfathomable to me that anyone wants to bring him back. Duke was too hittable to be worth going to arbitration with and should be non-tendered.

Jeff Karstens (3-10, 4.92) and Brian Burres (4-5, 4.99) can start and relieve and pitch in AAA and the majors, but simply aren't good enough to be Top 5 guys. They'll be valuable when someone gets hurt but are basically below average pitchers. They shouldn't be in the five-man rotation on Opening Day.

Daniel McCutchen (2-5, 6.12) and Brad Lincoln (1-4, 6.66) proved that they are AAA pitchers.

MY FREE AGENT PICKS
The Pirates aren't going to sign Cliff Lee, but pitching is unpredictable and every year there are teams that get a great performance out of guys who sign for between $2 and $4 million. Here are the two guys who I would round out the rotation with:

Rich Harden (5-5, 5.58) made $6.5 million on a one year deal and will certainly make much less in 2011 after starting only 18 games and pitching poorly. He'll be 29 in 2011 and has a career ERA of 3.63 with over a strikeout an inning. He's also been injured every year for the past six years - that of course is a concern but I would rather have a guy who gets strikeouts when healthy than Zach Duke. Despite his terrible 2011, I think Harden is a good bet to dominate teams in the NL Central as long as he can stay healthy. I also think he could be had on a one-year deal for $3.5 million.

Kevin Correia (10-10, 5.40) was hit hard in 2010 after a great 2009 year. Correia posted a sub-4.00 ERA in three of four previous seasons and has strikeout ability and durability. He'll only be 30, and all indications are that he had terrible luck in 2010. If he continues to strike out seven batters per nine innings with good control and durability, he's well worth the $2 million he'll sign for.

Gibbons, Macha Out of Consideration - Which Candidates Remain?

The Boston Globe is reporting that Ken Macha is out of the running for the Pirates manager job. This of course comes as a surprise to me because I expected Macha to be the guy. But I have to trust any newspaper that is primarily circulated by guys who buy the whole stack of papers out of a vending machine for 50 cents at 6 in the morning and then stand on the corner, surrounded by stacks of newspapers, selling them for 50 cents all day.

John Gibbons asked the Pirates Thursday to remove him from consideration. The original front-runner Eric Wedge signed with the Mariners. The other guys the Pirates interviewed were:

Dale Sveum - The '08 Brewers fired Ned Yost and installed Sveum as manager with only two weeks left in the season. Under Sveum the Brewers won six of their last seven games to make the playoffs for the first time in 26 years. Then they fired him and he hasn't managed since. Sveum seems like a possibility and would provide an important link to the amazing '97 Pirates.
Carlos Tosca - Tosca's father was an ex-girlfriend's pediatrician, which sounds legit until you realize that (a) he's still practicing medicine even now and his son is 57 years old, and (b) her parents chose this doctor by picking the cheapest doctor in a 2.7 million person metropolitan area.

Tosca interviewed with the Pirates on the 14th and then agreed to be the Braves' bench coach on the 15th. I am sure he could get out of the Braves commitment but the timing suggests his Pirates interview didn't go well.

Jeff Banister - Banister is a career baseball man with the Pirates, having been in the organization since 1994. He never managed above A ball, so this would be a curious hire. One would think the Pirates would have had him manage the Indianapolis team, or at least Altoona, if they were grooming Banister for the major league job. It seems like he just got this interview as a courtesy for his 17 years in the organization.

Bo Porter - Porter never managed above A ball and was just fired by the Diamondbacks after only one year on their coaching staff. I consider him a longshot for the job, especially since he is rumored to be the frontrunner for the Marlins job. The Marlins have often chosen unconventional candidates for their manager job; the Pirates have not.

Possibly interviewed was...

Bobby Valentine - The Pirates denied reports that Valentine interviewed for the job, although they have denied reports before which then turned out to be true. Really the Pirates would be honored to have Valentine considering them. Remember Valentine's 2000 Mets? Here was their starting lineup in Game One of the World Series.

Timo Perez RF
Edgardo Alfonzo 2B
Mike Piazza DH
Todd Zeile 1B
Robin Ventura 3B
Benny Agbayani LF
Jay Payton CF
Todd Pratt C
Mike Bordick SS
Al Leiter P

Even in the worst of times, the Pirates never had to resort to having a girl batting fifth and playing third base. Valentine is clearly the best candidate here. I've read that he wears out his welcome, yet he managed over six years for both teams he's worked for.

Many news sources have speculated about...

Tony Pena - Pena is a coach for the Yankees. A lot of sites have theorized that the Pirates were waiting for the Yankees to be eliminated so they could finally interview Pena. They've got their wish, but really? This is a guy who has had one managing job, which ended because he resigned effective immediately on May 10 of a season without even talking to the team's general manager in advance. I support his hiring only if he is immediately traded for Andy Van Slyke.

Managerial Search - Ken Macha

Multiple news outlets are now reporting that Eric Wedge will manage the Mariners next year. Less obvious is the fact that Ken Macha will manage the Pirates.

For whatever reason, the Pirates really look up to the Indians and Brewers organizations. With Wedge off the market, Macha becomes the leading candidate for the Pirates job.As an opening point, I'm sure no one is unfamiliar with his glorious Pirates career, but allow me to recap it. He came up in 1974 as a third catcher in September, and hit an unbelievable .600 in five at-bats down the stretch. In a pennant race! Unfortunately, the Pirates converted him into a corner infield/corner outfield utility player. He hit .274/.317/.316 in 1977, .212/.354/.269 in 1978, and was a Montreal Expo in time to watch the '79 World Series on TV.

Resurfacing in 2003, Macha managed the A's for four years and won between 88 and 96 games each year. With Tim Hudson in Atlanta and Rich Harden making only nine starts due to injury, the 2006 A's won 93 games, won their division and won their first round playoff series. Billy Beane fired Macha as soon as the ALCS was over. The reason was rumored to be a personality conflict, surprising in light of the fact that the primary aspect of Macha's personality is "lack of a personality."

And this brings us to my enduring image of Ken Macha: Ken Macha standing in the Brewers dugout with no facial expression while a pitcher gets absolutely rocked on the mound. A's fans had criticized Macha for not pulling pitchers when they clearly didn't have it in one game. With the Brewers, he used pitchers who clearly didn't have it for two seasons! Mercifully that's all the time it took until he was Parrad, Suppaned and Bushed out of a job.

And that brings us to the upcoming 2011 season. Macha is from Monroeville and played for the Pirates in their glory decade. That's enough for him to get any job in Pittsburgh. In retrospect it's shocking that he's not already Chief Financial Officer of H.J. Heinz.

When Tim Hudson was beating the Angels 4-1, nobody realized that he would still be in the game for 110 pitches if he was Randy Wolf out there throwing in a 7-7 game. Jim Leyland could smoke 60 cigarettes in the time it takes Ken Macha to get around to his first mound visit. As your 2011 World Championship manager, you'll wonder at the end of the season if Macha really managed at all.

Managerial Search - Eric Wedge

The Pirates interviewed Ken Macha and Jeff Bannister yesterday for their open managerial job. They previously interviewed Eric Wedge, Bo Porter and John Gibbons for the position. The search may not be over, but five is a typical number so I wouldn't be surprised if these are the only guys interviewed.

Let's look at Eric Wedge since I think either he or Macha will get the job. I lived in Cleveland and probably watched/listened to no less than 150 Indians games a year in 2003-05 so I am pretty familiar with him.

Career
Wedge managed the Cleveland Indians from 2003-2009 before being fired.

The Tribe was a contender from 1994-2001, then broke things up to rebuild after a poor first half in 2002. Wedge came in in 2003 and presided over a young team that included pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee but a Jody Gerut-led offense. By 2005 the Tribe was again a contender. The '05 edition, now featuring a talented offense including Grady Sizemore, Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner, barely missed the playoffs thanks to a final-week collapse and finished 93-69. Wedge was AL Manager of the Year in 2007 when the team finished 96-66 and nearly made the World Series. But injuries and trades derailed any chance at success in 2008 and 2009, leading to Wedge's firing. He has surfaced this year as a candidate for almost every open job.

In-Game Strategy
Strategically Wedge rarely would bunt, hit and run, or put on plays at all really. This was most apparent with stealing bases. Coco Crisp for example attempted 35 steals in 75 games this year at age 30. That's more than he attempted in a full season under Wedge when he was much faster. Franklin Gutierrez stole 25 bases this year but at most nine bases for Wedge.

This style is similar to that of John Russell. Both men prefer not to take risks which may induce outs. This style is also something the small ball-loving Pirates fan base does not like, even though it produces more runs.

Pitcher Usage
Wedge is pretty strong here and has gotten a lot out of his pitchers. Everyone has a set role on the staff. There are five starters and that is it, really, unless one gets hurt or is laughably bad. In the bullpen, everyone has a defined role which barely changes. There is a situational lefty, a seventh inning guy, an eighth inning guy, an Established Closer, etc. Rafael Betancourt had a 1.47 ERA in 2007 and never could win the closer's job. Rest assured that Joel Hanrahan would be Wedge's closer by virtue of his 20 career saves - unless a player is brought in who has 40.

Lineups and Bench Usage
Wedge strongly prefers to go with a set lineup and strongly favored veterans. His regular third baseman Aaron Boone was hitting .193/.252/.349 for a contending team on July 6, 2005. He hit poorly the following year too and he never lost the job until he was injured over a year later.

Maybe Boone is a bad example, but look at Victor Martinez. He missed 89 games in 2008 and only hit two home runs all year due to injuries. In 2009 he played more than ever before. He became a part-time first baseman, part-time catcher, but started 98 of 102 games before being traded. Martinez had a good year that year but this can't be unrelated to his 2010 injuries.

Brandon Phillips has been one of the five or ten best second basemen in baseball since 2006. Why not earlier? After a poor 2003 when he was rushed to the majors, Wedge only would let him bat a total of 33 more times. He used up one of four bench spots on a contending team in 2005 for weeks while Wedge just simply refused to play him.

This is the reason I prefer Wedge is not hired for the Pirates. There is no chance the Pirates will have eight guys next year who deserve to be full-time starters. Be sure that if Wedge were here, Akinori Iwamura would have played much longer than he did if not the whole season. Ronny Cedeno will never lose the shortstop job if Wedge is here, simply because he is an experienced shortstop.

Intangibles
Wedge is certainly less laid back than John Russell, although I would disagree with reports that he's "intense." However, his teams consistently played better in the second halves of seasons, and normally best in September whether they were in contention or not. Wedge is also quite loyal and is willing to work in tandem with his general manager. Except for Omar Vizquel in 2004 there were never any questions about players trying their best for Wedge's teams.

Conclusion
Eric Wedge deserves another managing job, but it should not be with the Pirates. There is no point in having a manager who prefers veterans come in to manage a youth-laden team. I don't want to see whatever marginal vets are on the roster blocking any talented young players, particularly on the pitching staff.

Playoffs start today

The Major League Baseball playoffs start today, and alas, it's the 17th consecutive time they will be contested without the Pirates' participation. Yet playoff baseball, four hour games or not, brings with it enough drama and excitement that I'm already excited for the Pirates' 2011 WFC run. You owe it to yourself as a baseball fan to follow this postseason.

Rangers at Rays
Game 1, 1:37 p.m. today
The Rangers (90-72) perenially field one of baseball's best scoring teams, and were fourth in this year's AL in runs. Josh Hamilton (.359/.411/.653) was ridiculous this year and would have been the MVP if not for injuries - but it's unclear how healthy he is heading into this series. Veterans Vlad Guerrero (.300/.345/.496) and Mike Young (.284/.330/.444) are proving the value of brevity in writing, as they played for perennial losers back when they were Vladimir and Michael. The Rangers give the ball to Cliff Lee (12-9, 3.18) who put up one of the best postseasons in history last year.

I remember mocking the move at the time, but dropping the 'Devil' from their name propelled Tampa into perennial contenders, 96-66 this year. Carl Crawford (.307/.356/.495) and Evan Longoria (.294/.372/.507) lead an offense that somehow scored better than 800 runs despite Ben Zobrist (.238/.346/.353) and Carlos Pena (.196/.325/.407) being complete busts. David Price (19-6, 2.72) established himself as Tampa's ace this year and deservingly starts Game 1.

With the exception of Indian Shores Beach, I've had quite a few personal disagreements with the Tampa Bay area, so it's hard to be objective here. Bay to Bay is a nice road name, but I'm taking Cliff Lee and the Rangers in this one. After a 2009 postseason in which Lee went 4-0, 1.56, I find it hard to pick against him. For the series though, I see the Rays winning in five.

Reds at Phillies
Game 1, 5:07 p.m. tonight
Pittsburgh saw a lot of the Reds (91-71) and presuming we can pretend none of their fans are also Cincinnati Bearcats fans, they're one of the nice stories this year. Joey Votto (.324/.424/.600) is the presumptive MVP and leads a strong, deep lineup that led the NL in run scoring. Scott Rolen (.285/.358/.497) hasn't hit so well since his 2004 career year, and young outfielder Jay Bruce (.281/.353/.493) is a defensive standout and a strong power/speed threat on offense. On the mound, the Reds feature a deep bullpen but no clear #1 starter. Thus they'll go with Edinson Volquez (4-3, 4.31), by far the least accomplished Game One starter but also one who strikes out more than a batter an inning.

Unfortunately for Cincinnati, the Padres' late season losing streak gave the wild card to Atlanta forcing the Reds to face the Phillies (97-65). This might be a last hurrah year for Philadelphia as their top hitter Jayson Werth (.296/.388/.532) will no doubt be in navy blue pinstripes next spring. Chase Utley (.275/.387/.445) and Ryan Howard (.276/.353/.505) both had poor seasons by their standards, great by anyone else's, while Carlos Ruiz (.302/.400/.447) quietly became the league's second best hitting catcher. The Phillies give the ball to Roy Halladay (21-10, 2.44), who will certainly win his fourth Cy Young. The bullpen is still a little suspect but less so than last year.

You have to pick the Phillies in this game as there's no sign yet that Halladay is mortal. And I'm picking Phillies in four for this series.

Yankees vs. Twins
Game 1, 8:37 p.m. tonight
Target Field hosts its first ever playoff game tonight in a rematch of last year's series - memorably decided in favor of the Yankees on one of 4,000 blown calls in the playoffs. You know the Yankees (95-67) - Alex Rodriguez (.270/.341/.506), Derek Jeter (.270/.340/.370), Mark Teixeira (.256/.365/.481), and Robinson Cano (.319/.381/.534) again are the core. If those first three guys' numbers looked low to you, it's because we're dealing with another aging team that like the Phillies may have their best chance at another title this year. CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18) gets the ball and is hard to hit until you realize his given name is 'Carsten Charles'.

The Twins (94-68) were sputtering along this year until losing the MVP-caliber bat of Justin Morneau (.345/.437/.618) from the middle of their lineup. Freed of that encumbrance, they went on a tear and won the AL Central easily. Jim Thome (.283/.412/.627) of Aurora, Ohio, the best clean power hitter of our time, had an unbelievable year while Joe Mauer (.327/.402/.469) diminished from MVP form to mere "best catcher in the league" form. The Twins go with Francisco Liriano (14-10, 3.62) for Game 1.

I want the Twins to win this more than anything, but it's hard to pick against the Evil Empire. My head is going with the Yankees in this game and Yankees in four for the series. The time will come when this gang can't get it together in the postseason, but they're only a year older than last year when everybody played the best ball of their lives.

The End of Russell

Connie Mack's record 50 straight years managing one team is safe, as the Pirates announced today that manager John Russell has been fired. His teams lost an unbelievable 299 games in three years. Nixon got re-elected, but no major league manager is going to survive that performance.Not that that record was John Russell's fault. Injuries and trades too often left him fielding a lineup of Bixlers and Churches, calling the bullpen to warm up Osorias and Ledezmas, and in general rarely having more than 15 true major leaguers on the 25-man roster.

The finest single season in baseball history is probably Babe Ruth's 1921, when he hit .378/.512/.846 with 59 home runs, 171 RBI and 177 runs while stealing 17 bases. Put him in right field on the 2010 Pirates instead of Lastings Milledge, and you have a 72-90 team. Yet many members of the Pirates fan base still insist that John Russell has been the problem with this team, that he's not getting enough from his talent.

In fact, Russell was brought in primarily to develop young talent with his teaching skills. He achieved that goal this year with Walker, McCutchen, Tabata, Alvarez, and McDonald. But Cedenos don't become Honus Wagners, and straight fastballs with no movement do become extra base hits. The Texans lost at the Alamo.

The Pirates had to fire John Russell, to be sure. 105 losses is always going to cause a change in management, and bringing back the same guys creates a perception that it's OK. J.R. will collect his full salary next year and he'll find some job in baseball for as many seasons as he wants to work, but this is probably it for him as a major league manager. I can't help but think he deserved a better chance.

2010 Pirates Awards

Not everyone on the Pirates was terrible this season. Before we turn, mercifully, to the 2011 Pirates, and because everyone cares what some random asshole thinks, let's give out some awards.

Most Valuable Player
Andrew McCutchen
McCutchen answered any questions remaining after his rookie season, hitting .286/.365/.449 while scoring 94 runs. That's 16% of the team's runs. He got 56 extra base hits, stole 33 bases, and drew 70 walks. He showed good range in center field with a flair for the spectacular play. He proved his durability, playing 154 games and starting 152 despite dealing with several injuries in the second half. He also overcame a summer slump to post the best month of the season in September/October when he hit .324/.411/.519. He drastically cut down on strikeouts as the year progressed. It was a really solid age 23 season from a star who is a breakout candidate for 2011.
Honorable Mention: Neil Walker

Most Valuable Pitcher
Evan Meek
Meek came out of nowhere to become a bona fide relief ace. He was unhittable in the first half, maintaining an ERA below 1.00 as late as July 9. Incredibly, national commentators claimed Meek shouldn't be in the All-Star Game when he entered the game with a 1.11 ERA. He had a solid second half that only looked unimpressive when compared to his first half, finishing 5-4 with a 2.14 ERA in 80 innings as batters hit only .185 against him for the season. Evan also was perfect in four ninth inning save opportunities.
Honorable Mention: James McDonald

Best Rookie
Neil Walker
Neil started the year not even ranked among Pittsburgh's Top 20 prospects, but he quickly changed that by hitting .321/.392/.560 at Indianapolis to start the season. Promoted to the Pirates in late May, Walker emerged as a legit top of the order line drive hitter with a batting line of .296/.349/.462. Though he had success early in the season as a free swinger, he worked to correct that tendency and ended up drawing 14 of his 34 walks in the season's final 21 games. He showed a good arm, decent range and sound decision making skills despite it being his first year at second base.
Honorable Mention: Pedro Alvarez

Accepting Mediocrity

Charlie Morton is in the midst of a good game tonight. I don't want to see him pitch another one.

Morton entered tonight 2-11 with a 7.94 ERA in 16 starts. Those numbers aren't just bad, they're comically bad. By the end of tonight he'll have his ERA down to 7.50. I know it's a recession but there's no need to repeat the numbers of the 1930 Phillies.

Many fans, seemingly forgetting the automatic loss that each of Morton's first half starts was, apparently are willing to give him a shot at the 2011 rotation. Why?

I posted this seemingly innocuous comment on a local radio personality's game thread: "I hope to not see him in 2011. I take no positives from a season of 7+ ERA."

One would think it is uncontroversial that a 7.50 ERA season is bad. Oh, but I was wrong. The universal chorus said that Morton should come back due to his stuff.

Even looking at his career year, 2009, that Huntington & Co. hearken back to - what was it? A 4.55 ERA and 1.46 WHIP as batters hit .276/.354/.407 off him. That's the best he's done ever.

Fastball velocity is nice when that fastball isn't landing in the right field bleachers. Here we are with a guy who has a 6 ERA over 50 career starts now, over 250 innings. A good - no, a mediocre - team would farm him out and sign someone, anyone, so that Charlie Morton is not in the 2011 rotation. Let's see if the Pirates are that team.

Alvarez's Hot Streak

Pedro Alvarez had a perfect night tonight going 3-for-3 with a home run, a double, a walk, and two runs and RBI.

He was the NL Player of the Week last week for six games in which he hit .417 with four doubles, two homers and 13 RBI. Those RBI are no small achievement when hitting in the league's worst lineup.

After today's performance, in the last seven games Alvarez is 13-for-27 with five doubles, three homers and 15 RBI.

An Ichiro-type top of the order hitter thrives on consistency, getting a hit or two most days. Power hitters are nearly the direct opposite. A 40 home run guy may get 25 of those in eight hot weeks of the 26 week season. It says something not only that Alvarez is able to do this, but that he's able to do this at a point in the season when - if not excusable - it's at least not beyond the realm of possibility that players would stop giving their full effort.

Overall, Pedro is up to .249/.324/.449 which is great for a guy in his second pro season. Considering power is usually the last skill to manifest itself, he's definitely cemented himself as someone to be excited about for 2011 and beyond.

Losing 100

Apologies for not posting a Preview yesterday. Truthfully, this season of blogging has been tough. I had the intention of writing a humorous blog which also contributed positive thoughts on the team. But given the way this season has unfolded - with the 2010 Pirates fielding not only the worst team in baseball this year, but one of the worst in modern history - it is tough not to be negative.

Topics like advocating moving McCutchen from third in the order to leadoff, that I can do. But to give one counterexample, I see reports that Ronny Cedeno has won the shortstop job in 2011 and I just can't even respond. Check the list of 28 pitchers the Pirates have used this year, and tell me how many there really is something to say about. What do you blog about Andy LaRoche's career, a one-time top prospect who is nothing but an ineffective pinch hitter by his 27th birthday?

All this and more. But it's time to defend Pirates fandom, and if you're not, it's time to become a fan.

Talented young players
The Pirates brought up a 21-year-old left fielder, Jose Tabata, in May with remarkable results. At an age where it's totally legitimate to still be in the Florida State League, Tabata is a consistent line drive hitting, .300 hitting outfielder with superb defense and plus plus speed.

Andrew McCutchen cemented himself as a star in this, his age 23 season, by basically repeating his superb 2009 over a full season. He isn't the top defensive center fielder in baseball, but he does make plays that no other center fielder would make. And on offense, he's a dynamic catalyst at the top of the order, a true power/speed threat the likes of which are rarer than you think.

Neil Walker blossomed into a legitimate #3 hitter at age 24 - and from a middle infield position. I know the new fielding stats don't reflect this, but it's clear to me that Walker's defense has been great - especially for a guy playing second base for the first time in his career.

Pedro Alvarez, in his rookie age 23 year, adjusted to major league pitching and has shown flashes of the power that will make him a consistent 30 home run guy. I'm fine with 11 home runs over half of an MLB season considering this was his second pro season overall.

James McDonald, in his first year as an MLB starter, brings top of the rotation stuff to the mound and commands it like a seasoned veteran. He has quietly been one of the best strikeout guys on any MLB staff in this second half.

All of those guys will be Pirates for four to six more years. Add in Evan Meek and Joel Hanrahan, our two lights out closers, and this is a lot of talent to build around.

Ballpark Experience
It literally cost me fifty dollars to get a standing room seat at Fenway for an Orioles game. Let's say you are a Red Sox fan living somewhere in New England. Unless you're rich you're going down to a game two times a year, struggling to get there and park, and largely following the team on TV. It's a similar scenario for the Cubs, Phillies, any of the big market teams.

We are baseball fans, and we want to spend our summer going to baseball games. I think I made it to 22 games this year and with free games, I could not have spent over 200 dollars on all those tickets combined. Sports should be experienced as close to the playing field as possible, not watched at a bar because there's no way to get in. The Pirates, with their ticket deals and low prices, are one of the few major league pro teams that let people of average means attend games on a regular basis. And you know PNC is the best park in baseball.

The Pittsburgh weather is also great for baseball. Any night game from May through the end of the season is likely to have perfect weather. And the fans are true fans. Nobody is wearing green St. Patrick's Day McCutchen jerseys with McCutchen written in Russian.

History
Clemente, Stargell, Mazeroski, Kiner, Wagner, 1960, 1979, yes, Van Slyke... The Pirates have some of the richest history of any team in sports. I've tried to highlight a lot of this through the blog and will continue to do so in the off-season. The 1960 World Series Game 7 footage was just found and we'll get to watch the greatest game in baseball history in December. This is a proud franchise and anyone should be proud to wear the colors.

2011 Championship
Also, we're going to win the World Series next year.

Series Preview: St. Louis Cardinals

Fresh off a three game sweep of Arizona, Pittsburgh entertains the Cardinals starting tonight in the penultimate series of the season.

An interesting fact about the word 'penultimate': I am in law school, and I had to instruct a classmate - who incidentally is about to be a quite highly paid lawyer - that 'penultimate' cannot be used for the second-last of a list of four or fewer items. Lunch is not your penultimate meal of the day. Moving forward...

St. Louis (77-72) has ceded control of the NL Central to the Reds and is basically just waiting to be eliminated, trailing now by seven games with only 13 to play. It's a disappointing record considering that the triumverate of Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia and Adam Wainwright won 47 of those games.The Cardinal offense, of course, features Albert Pujols (.306/.403/.586) and Matt Holliday (.314/.387/.541), both superstars performing at top level. Colby Rasmus (.280/.365/.519) has turned in a great sophomore season, but that trio has been backed by precious little else - downgrading the Cardinals lineup to just an average attack. They are backed by the league's fourth best pitching staff, though, and should be 83-66 based on runs scored and allowed. At a minimum, this is a team that should sweep the 2010 Pirates.

St. Louis Cardinals - Tuesday 7:05, Wednesday 7:05, Thursday 12:35
Jake Westbrook (8-10, 4.22) gets the ball tonight for Tony La Russa's club against Paul Maholm (7-15, 5.36). Westbrook is from Athens, Georgia, just like my favorite band R.E.M. Not only is R.E.M. punctuated the same whether it ends a sentence or not, but they just finished recording their 15th studio album which is sure to be great. It's bittersweet to me though, because they won't be touring to support it. Anyway, I think Westbrook may throw one or two balls that find the river off the Pirates' bats. My pick is the Pirates.

Tomorrow it's Kyle Lohse (4-7, 6.75) for the Cardinals against Charlie Morton (1-11, 8.61). I really hate typing Morton's stats every time out - not only is this a bad year, but he has a career 6.13 ERA and has no business getting a 48th start in the majors. Lohse is in the worst season of what hasn't been that great of a career - although his ERAs would be a lot better every year if his managers realized that he's a six inning pitcher, nothing more. My pick is the Pirates.

Thursday, Jeff Suppan (1-7, 5.61) faces Brian Burres (3-3, 4.93). What great luck for the Pirates to face zero of the Cardinals strong starting pitchers. If I were assessing why the Cardinals are out of contention, I would look squarely at whoever decidied Suppan should be in the rotation after he was released by the Brewers of all teams. Burres is coming off three quality starts in a row, posting a 1.80 ERA in that span, and unfortunately is making a strong bid for the 2011 rotation. My pick is the Pirates.

Ryan Doumit's 2011 Status

I recently wrote about the likelihood that Zach Duke would not be tendered a contract this offseason. There are also many question marks surrounding whether the only other Pirate who dates back to 2005, Ryan Doumit, will return in 2011.

He has been something of a lightning rod for criticism, with some arguing that his on deck song (Danzig's "Mother") should have been changed like four years ago, while others argue that Doumit is ahead of his time, a portent of a future generation in which every player comes to bat to the tune of a different Danzig song. Doumit is signed through 2011 and is owed another $5.6 million in guaranteed money after this year. He has $15.5 million in club options for 2012 and 2013 which are as likely to be exercised as Ryan Doumit is to button his shirt.

That contract, of course, is the product of signing at the right time. Doumit inked the deal after a 2008 which saw him hit .318/.357/.501 while throwing out a respectable 27% of baserunners. Since then, Doumit has been alternately injured and slumping. He has struggled on balls in the dirt and with throwing out runners.

The Pirates brought in Chris Snyder at the trade deadline to be the everyday catcher and announced that Doumit would play some right field and back up Snyder at catcher.

Today's story in the Post-Gazette indicates that Doumit has done better in that role since the trade. That's partially true, but he's still only hit .248/.352/.438 in that time. Those numbers are fine for a backup catcher, but not at over $5 million for one year. And they're inadequate for a right fielder who is both slow and a poor defender.

I think the best move is to trade Doumit and eat some of his contract if necessary. If no trade is available, Fangraphs projects Doumit as a .267/.353/.433 hitter going forward which is fine for any bench player. And as a final positive, the Pirates will have Tony Sanchez starting at the major league level in 2012.

Series Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks

Adam LaRoche triumphantly returns to PNC Park for this long awaited matchup between the National League's two worst teams. Truthfully there's not much drama left in this season. With 14 games to play the Pirates have the top draft pick all but wrapped up - our 48-98 record is seven games worse than Seattle.

Arizona (59-88) has allowed 15 fewer runs than the Pirates, meaning Pittsburgh is now last in both runs scored and runs allowed. The D-Backs' bullpen has been an unmitigated disaster, yet they throw a triumverate of good young pitchers this weekend - all of whom are 25 or younger and have sub-4.00 ERAs.

The Diamondbacks offense has been around league average. LaRoche (.261/.323/.464) is hitting slightly worse than the .265/.340/.469 line he put up in Pittsburgh, yet already has a career high 91 RBI and counting out of the cleanup spot. Kelly Johnson (.275/.362/.479) keeps up the ex-Braves theme and has had a really solid year hitting second in the order. Mark Reynolds (.205/.323/.452) already has 197 strikeouts to go with his 32 home runs. He needs another 26 K's to break his own all time single season strikeout record, set last year. And of course, off the bench Arizona has former Pirate great Ryan Church (.197/.261/.337).

Arizona Diamondbacks - Friday 7:05, Saturday 7:05, Sunday 1:35
Tonight, Ian Kennedy (9-9, 3.87) takes the hill for Arizona against Brian Burres (3-3, 5.22). Burres is coming off of two very good starts in which he allowed only one run a game while pitching six and seven innings. Kennedy for his part has been one of the league's better rookie pitchers, managing to strike out 157 in 179 innings despite a below average fastball. Speaking of 179 innings, is there really any reason for Kennedy to make this start? He's already thrown 30 innings more than his career high and missed four months of last season with an arm injury, yet he's going to make three more starts for a .400 club. My pick is the Pirates.

Tomorrow night it's a pretty good pitching matchup of Barry Enright (6-4, 3.39) and John McDonald (3-5, 4.13). I covered McDonald yesterday. Enright, a 24-year-old rookie, somehow has a great ERA even though he gives up a lot of home runs (1.6 per nine innings) and doesn't strike anyone out. You can't pick against McDonald at this point...My pick is the Pirates.

Sunday afternoon, Daniel Hudson (7-2, 2.58) faces Zach Duke (7-14, 5.78). Duke apparently is staying in the rotation because he threw a good side session, which is apparently more important than throwing an awful game every time out. Hudson, 23, came over in the Edwin Jackson trade to the White Sox - a move that's already looking dumb for Chicago. Hudson is clearly a better pitcher than Jackson now, and he pretty clearly was at the time of the trade too. He has a 93 mph fastball and 85 mph slider, which set up a great chamgeup that is his out pitch. I recently argued that the Pirates should get rid of Duke but I'd like to see him get one last home win. My pick is the Pirates.

James McDonald: Our New Ace

I'll be the first to admit that when James McDonald arrived in the Octavio Dotel deal, he was just one of a bunch of unknown names coming to the Pirates organization on trade deadline day. Six weeks later this deal already looks like a steal for Pittsburgh.

In eight starts McDonald has a 3.49 ERA. In three of those starts he allowed zero runs while pitching siz, seven and eight innings. He also has struck out 44 in 49 innings while batters have hit only .251/.318/.352 against him. Needless to say those are excellent results for an age 25 season.

Looking at McDonald's pitches (via Fangraphs), he's throwing his fastball at an average of 92.3 miles per hour - a drop off of only 0.5 mph since last year when he pitched primarily in relief. That's excellent as most pitchers lose a full 2 mph in the switch to starting. His curveball - more impressive than his fastball to the naked eye - shows a strong positive value as well. A below average changeup rounds out McDonald's arsenal as he's been one of the rare starters to succeed while throwing only three pitches.

McDonald has shown solid command, walking 3.3 batters per nine innings. He has also excelled at holding runners, allowing only two runners to steal while three have been caught.

Clearly this has been a great age 25 season for our new starting pitcher. I expect continued improvement in 2011. Nothing in McDonald's minor league numbers suggests that this season is a fluke. He consistently struck out over a batter per inning in the minor leagues while also exhibiting strong command. Moreover, he's doing this while only throwing three pitches. Subject to the Pirate's choice of permanent pitching coach, I'd expect him to round out his arsenal by adding a fourth pitch for next year - likely a cut fastball.

Octavio Dotel has been solid for Los Angeles, but it still looks like the Pirates really won out on the trade - even without considering outfield prospect Andrew Lambo, who also came over in the same deal. As we well know, high upside, high strikeout, young starting pitchers rarely come along. Add two more and we're good to go for 2011.

Duke Should Be Non-Tendered

Most fans have realistically stopped paying attention to the 2011 Pirates, but the starting pitching for 2011 is one important issue that is working itself out right now.

Zach Duke is one of the team's elder statesmen, having been a Pirate since 2005, and was this year's Opening Day starter. Yet with 156 starts under his belt there's a real chance last night's eight earned run performance was Duke's last as a Pirate. Manager John Russell indicated that Duke's status in the rotation for the rest of 2010 would be re-evaluated. But what about 2011?

Duke was an All-Star last year after a first half that saw him post a 3.29 ERA and 1.21 WHIP while averaging a cool seven innings a start. Since then he has been rather terrible. In 2009's second half he went 3-8 with a 5.17 ERA as batters hit .318/.346/.499 against him. That was bad but Duke has been worse throughout this year: 7-14 with a 5.78 ERA as opposing batters hit .327/.378/.516.

For some perspective, Roberto Clemente hit .317/.359/.475 for his entire career. For a year and a half Zach Duke has made the set of all NL batters into a slightly better version of Clemente.

This year Duke is earning $4.2 million. He is entering his third year of arbitration meaning the club has two choices. They can either tender him a contract - retaining him next year for either an arbitrator's award or an agreed upon sum - or they can non-tender him, which would cut ties with Duke and make him a free agent.

Despite Duke's awful season, players rarely if ever get a pay cut in arbitration. I see no reason for the Pirates to tender Duke a contract. Why bring Duke back at say, $4.4 million? If Duke was a free agent from another team, in 2011 he's a guy who would likely be a non-roster invitee at this point with a split major league/minor league contract for something like $800,000/$200,000.

There's also the possibility of the team agreeing with Duke before the tender deadline on some amount between the minimum salary and the likely arbitration award. But I don't see anything in Duke's performance that should merit bending over backwards to bring him back. Never a stuff guy, he's lost velocity on all his pitches this year and now features an 87 mph fastball with an array of mediocre or worse offspeed stuff. That's not a formula for success in this league. His only positive aspect is his durability, and the ability to make 30+ starts and get pounded is an ability this team doesn't need.

Pirates 2011 Schedule Highlights

The schedule has been released for the 2011 Pirates World Championship regular season. The full schedule is available at the Pirates site.
Keep in mind that many of the Saturday and Sunday game times will no doubt be moved to be national TV games, assuming we face Stephen Strasburg every Saturday and Sunday. Check out this bitchin' clip art! Here are the highlights:

First Half
The Pirates open on the road at Wrigley Field starting April 1. That's the first Friday Opening Day in decades, and the Chicago weather no doubt will be beautiful.

The home opener is at 1:35 p.m. Thursday, April 7, against the Colorado Rockies. For many readers, that's significant as the last chance for the J.D. Class of 2011 to skip class for an Opening Day.

The first interleague series is against the Tigers the weekend of May 20-22. We get the Orioles at home June 20-22 in a rematch of the great #1 Draft Pick Battle of 2010, and rounding out interleague play are the Red Sox, June 24-26. The Tribe series is on the road this year, June 17-19, and Jacobs Field is a great park for those of you who've never been.

The Phillies come to town the weekend of June 3-5. Its good to have the cross-state rivals on a weekend as these games will all be near sellouts.

Second Half
With the championship push on, really all these games will be big. The Reds and Cardinals both make their first trips of the year to PNC Park during the July 18-24 homestand. From July 22-August 10 the Pirates have 20 consecutive games including a trip from Pittsburgh to San Francisco without a travel day. St. Louis and Cincinnati both return in August and again in September.

The season wraps up with the Reds at home the weekend of September 23-25, then the Brewers away September 26-28 with the final game at 8:10 p.m. The traditional Sunday final game is now a Wednesday meaning the Division Series will start that Friday, with the Pirates certainly contesting games in that round.

As we well know here at the WFC Blog, the really important schedule is the yet-to-be-released 2011 Promotional Schedule. We'll be all over that when it comes out, of course.

Great Pirates In History: Fred Clarke

Most casual Pirates fans know about Honus Wagner, but I suspect not many have heard of his contemporary Fred Clarke. While Wagner was the league's brightest star during his career, Clarke was not far behind. Clarke hit for power and average, stole bases and walked often throughout his career. In addition to playing the outfield, he also managed four of the nine Pirates pennant winners including three in a row from 1901-1903.

By the turn of the century, Clarke was an established a superstar. He had been one of the league's finest hitters for years with the Louisville Colonels, who he also managed since the age of 24. Clarke had career numbers of .334/.398/.448 with Lousville, scoring 607 runs in five and a half seasons.

Coming to Pittsburgh
After the 1899 season, the National League contracted from 12 to 8 teams. Colonels owner Barney Dreyfuss purchased the Pirates and consolidated those teams into one. A talented group of 14 Colonels including Wagner, Rube Waddell and Clarke joined the Pirates, instantly transforming a mediocre team into a contender. Clarke also was installed as manager of the new squad for 1900.

Clarke struggled with illness in 1900 and hit only .276/.368/.386, by far his worst season to date. He got into a fistfight after a game in May and had bottles thrown at him from the Pittsburgh stands in June. He got on base enough to score 84 runs in 110 games, but the 33 games he missed were costly as the Pirates finished second, 4.5 games behind Brooklyn.

After the bottle incident, Clarke calmly cleaned up the glass shards. But another time Clarke fought back, firing the ball at a fan after catching the third out. The problem was it was the second out and there was a man on base. The ball bounced out of the stands and Clarke was able to get it in before the runner scored.

Championship Years
Clarke returned to his customary hitting level with a .324/.395/.461 campaign in 1901, scoring 118 runs. His pitching staff once again led the league in ERA. Backed this time by the league's second highest scoring offense, Pittsburgh easily took the pennant with a 90-49 record.

It was more of the same for Clarke in '02 as he hit .316/.401/.449, scoring 103 runs. That year's Pirates went 103-36 and finished first by 27.5 games.

Clarke had his finest Pirates season in 1903, hitting .351/.414/.532. He led the league in slugging percentage and doubles but still batted out of his customary #2 hole. The Pirates finished first again and played in the first ever World Series after the season, which they lost 5-3 to the Boston Americans.

Overall, for the three pennant years of 1901-03, Clarke hit .330/.403/.478 and scored 309 runs while driving in 183. Wagner hit .346/.408/.491 and scored 303 runs while driving in 318. Apart from Wagner's RBI totals due to hitting cleanup, it's hard to say either was the superior hitter during those seasons. At worst Wagner was a top ten player in baseball history; it's saying a lot that Clarke was his equal when Wagner was in prime career, championship form. Wagner was the team's superstar but Clarke's lefthanded bat was crucial.

Unlike today's left fielders, Clarke possessed the strongest arm in his team's outfields. Taking the extra base was even more important in those low scoring days, and opponents feared Clarke's arm more than almost anyone in the league.

Later Career
Now in his thirties, Clarke started to decline somewhat as a player starting in 1904. He always got on base and collected extra base hits - leading the league in triples in 1906 - but by this time he was more Will Clark than Albert Pujols. The Pirates finished with a winning record every year from 1904-08 but were unable to take another pennant.

Clarke's bunch got together in 1909 for one last hurrah, playing for the first time at Forbes Field - the first ever modern concrete and steel stadium. The fiery player-manager, now batting third in the lineup, hit .287/.384/.373 and walked a league-leading 80 times while scoring 97 runs. If those numbers don't jump out at you, consider that the 36-year-old Clarke was the second-oldest regular in the league, which as a whole hit a Ronny Cedenoesque .244/.310/.314. Wagner, for his part, hit .339/.420/.489 and drove in 100, while Tommy Leach scored a league leading 126 times. With a pitching staff that had a 2.07 ERA, that was another pennant winning formula.

This time the Pirates would not be denied in the World Series. Clarke hit the Pirates' only two home runs of the Series and walked four times in the deciding Game 7, helping the Pirates to their first ever World Series title. It was the crowning achievement on a Hall of Fame career.

Clarke slumped in 1910 but hit .324/.407/.492 in 1911, his last season as a regular player. He stayed on as manager until 1915, piloting his last great team in 1912 when the Pirates went 93-58.

A Pirate Great
Overall Fred Clarke hit .312/.386/.429 for his career. Those would be great numbers for a #2 hitter now but were outstanding in the dead ball era. There was no MVP award at the time but Clarke would have won it in 1897 and had a strong case in 1903. He stole 509 bases and hit 220 triples, still seventh in baseball history. He also went an astounding 1602-1181 as a manager. Clarke was elected to the Hall of Fame in 1945.

He died in August 1960 prompting the Pittsburgh Press to opine: "The death of former Pirate Manager Fred Clarke recalls that wonderful era in the early 1900's when our Pittsburgh ball club was winning consistently...Old time baseball fans recall him as a fiery manager and born leader of a crew of stars headed by the incomparable Honus Wagner."

Fred Clarke was a great hitter and a great leader of men. He was instrumental in four pennants and Pittsburgh's first World Series title, and for that he is truly a great Pirate in history.

Pirates Claim Pitcher Chris Leroux

Today the Pirates claimed righthanded relief pitcher Chris Leroux on waivers from the Marlins. He will immediately join the team and replace Brian Bass, who has been designated for assignment. Six minutes after the move was announced his Wikipedia page reflected that information. I'm not going to speculate on who made that change but the username was chris_leroux69.

Leroux has had an awful age 26 season this year - 1-3, 6.28 in 28 minor league games and 0-0, 7.00 in 17 games with the Marlins. He also apparently has a great lefty bat with a double in six career minor league at bats. What makes these relievers decide to bat with the opposite hand when they're averaging one plate appearance a year?

Also Chris Leroux looks great in the bright yellow Gulf Coast League Marlins uniform.

Seriously, while his numbers are bad for 2010 this isn't a bad pickup. Last year he had a 2.70 ERA in 46 AA innings while striking out 55 in 60 innings. He averages 94 mph on his fastball and has good strike zone command which makes me think that fastball has poor movement. Leroux seems like a decent guy to stash at Indianapolis, but not someone who should be on the 2011 roster.

Series Preview: New York Mets

Breaking news, but 'Mets' is a bullshit name for a baseball team. It's short for 'Metropolitans' - really? I'd rather see Miss USA in an Orioles Winter Classic jersey.

Anyway, Pittsburgh travels to New York to take on the Mets after a Reds series that apparently featured surprisingly competitive games. I was busy with the Pitt game (call me Virginia Tech but I can barely handle a I-AA team at home) and a magnum opus on the Clean Water Act. Good times.

David Wright (.289/.361/.498) leads a Mets offense that's 14th in the league in scoring. Jason Bay (.259/.347/.402) is still injured, while Angel Pagan (.289/.342/.432) is what passes for a breakout star on this team. Ike Davis (.263/.349/.449) has been pretty good too and that is it - a Pirates-like lineup.

Fair warning about these road trips to New York: New York will take all your money. This is true whether you brought four dollars for a week stay, or $1,600 for an afternoon.

New York Mets - Monday 7:10, Tuesday 7:10, Wednesday 7:10, Thursday 7:10
Tonight, James McDonald (3-5, 4.81) faces Dillon Gee (1-0, 1.29). Dillon Gee sounds like a fictional character from a genre of book I don't read and that genre is "not about basbeall." He throws a 90 mph fastball, 83 mph changeup, 80 mph slider and a slow curve. McDonald is coming off his best outing of the year where he threw seven shutout innings. He is already the ace of this staff which is saying nothing. 40 strikeouts in 41 innings as a starter is solid though. My pick is the Pirates.

Tuesday, Zach Duke (7-13, 5.47) faces knuckleballer R.A. Dickey (10-6, 2.91). Remember when Zach Duke was outdueling Roy Halladay in Philadelphia? Yeah, I don't either. My pick is the Pirates.

Wednesday, Paul Maholm (7-14, 5.37) faces Jenrry Mejia (0-4, 5.47). The Mets opened the season with 20-year-old Mejia, their top prospect who had barely pitched above Class A, in the major league bullpen. Then they sent him down to make him back into a starter - a move which was apparently successful because boom, now he's a starter. Mejia averages a 95 mph fastball but hasn't been able to strike anyone else this season. I could see that changing in this game, but my pick is the Pirates.

And then Thursday, unbelievably, yet impressively, this series continues with Charlie Morton (1-11, 9.05) facing Mike Pelfrey (14-9, 3.89). Morton actually had a good start last time out. To me the worst possible thing would be if he has a few more good ones and gets the fifth starter job next year. Mike Pelfrey has stopped pitching like an All-Star and resumed pitching like Mike Pelfrey. My pick is the Pirates.

Marauders Season Ends

Life is great, something to be discovered and enjoyed and loved one day at a time. It is a lot like the 2010 Bradenton Marauders baseball season. The sad thing about both of these things is, the last event in them is a crushing defeat. Bradenton had theirs last night as the Charlotte Stone Crabs shut down their might offense, taking the best-of-three series with a 2-1 victory.

The Marauders were valiant to the end, fighting through a two hour, 16 minute rain delay which cost them starter Nathan Adcock (11-7, 3.38) after just one inning. They took the lead in the top of the second after the delay on Adam Davis's double, scoring Eric Fryer for the 1-0 advantage. But the bats were silent the rest of the way, and the two runs the Crabs pushed across in the bottom of the second held up.

Charlotte moves on to face the Tampa Yankees in the five-game championship round, while this talented Marauders squad hopes to reunite in Altoona, healthy, for another shot at a title in 2011. One wonders if the result might have been different this year if not for the Tony Sanchez injury and the ridiculous headhunting ways of opposing FSL pitchers.

There was good news yesterday too as the Altoona Curve evened their first round series with a 6-4 home win over Harrisburg. Jeff Locke had an uncharacteristically bad start, failing to make it out of the fifth inning, but the patient Curve offense worked six walks and got timely hits. Andrew Lambo did the most damage with two doubles en route to a three-RBI night while Derek Hankins (5-5, 2.83) went 3.1 strong innings in relief for the win.

Tonight the best-of-five series moves to Harrisburg with the teams tied with one game apiece. Altoona lefthander Justin Wilson (11-8, 3.09) faces Harrisburg's righty Ryan Tatusko (3-1, 1.72) in this pivotal Game 3.